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- Reach payday: a Muscovite's salary is not even enough for half a meter in a new building
Reach payday: a Muscovite's salary is not even enough for half a meter in a new building
For one square meter in a new building, a Muscovite has to pay more than 2.5 average salaries. This follows from the data of the Central Bank and Rosstat for the second quarter of 2026, which were analyzed by "Izvestia". A year ago, 2.3 salaries were enough. The reason is that prices for new apartments grew almost twice as fast as salaries during the year. The situation has also worsened for residents of St. Petersburg, Moscow and Chelyabinsk regions. But in Dagestan and the Krasnodar Territory, housing has become more affordable. How to stop the rise in prices of new buildings so that salaries can catch up with them is in the "Izvestia" article.
Why housing affordability is falling
Housing affordability has fallen over the past year in many large cities and regions. In the second quarter of 2026, a Muscovite had to pay 2.52 average wages for one meter in a new building, although 2.32 was enough a year ago.
The average price of a meter at the primary market in the capital in April – June reached 481 thousand rubles, according to the Central Bank (+18% per year). At the same time, the average amount of accrued salary for the same period increased by only 9%, to 191 thousand, according to Rosstat statistics.
The situation has also worsened for residents of St. Petersburg. There, 2.32 average salaries were required to buy one meter in a new building in the second quarter of 2026 (2.28 a year earlier). St. Petersburg residents began to receive 9% more, but new housing prices rose by almost 11%.
Other regions where housing affordability has decreased include the Moscow and Chelyabinsk Regions. In the first, the gap grew moderately, from 1.7 average salaries per meter to 1.74. In the second, it was more noticeable: from 1.52 to 1.63. There, as in Moscow, prices for new buildings grew almost twice as fast as salaries.
The availability of new apartments in large cities and regions is falling because there is almost no cheap product left in the primary market, and it has become more expensive to build, explained Kirill Agapov, CEO and managing partner of Umbrella Consulting Group, a commercial real estate consulting company. According to him, the number of budget lots in Moscow has decreased several times in three years. There are practically no offers with a price per square meter of up to 300 thousand rubles. At the same time, the average cost of a square in "old" Moscow by the summer of 2026 has gone far beyond 800 thousand rubles. The cost is rising due to logistics, the cost of materials, and infrastructure burdens that developers put into the price.
"This is most clearly seen in Moscow: migration demand is being squeezed here, there is the maximum concentration of jobs and the smallest supply of cheap lots, so the gap between prices and incomes is growing faster than the national average," the expert added.
New buildings have also become more expensive due to preferential mortgage programs that have artificially supported demand in the primary market in recent years. In this situation, the buyer has to take longer to collect the initial payment, choose a smaller area or look for an apartment further from the center, said Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.
According to him, secondary housing remains an alternative, especially if you have savings or money from the sale of your former apartment. Housing affordability in the secondary market has historically been higher and more stable, said Valery Tumin, director of the Russian and CIS markets at "Pham Properties". However, a lower apartment price does not always mean a lower payment, because a preferential mortgage is available for a new building, while only a market mortgage is available for a secondary one.
"Currently, it is possible to buy an apartment in Moscow in fact for the vast majority of Russians who do not fall under the terms of the preferential program only if the old property is sold, the cost of which will cover at least 50-70% of the new one," said Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of Flip investment company.
Where housing affordability is growing
At the same time, in some regions, the availability of new housing has increased over the year. For example, the situation has improved significantly in Dagestan, according to data from the Central Bank and Rosstat. In the second quarter of last year, local residents needed to pay slightly less than 2.5 average salaries to buy one meter in a new building, and this year — about 1.8. This is due to a sharp drop in prices for new housing (by 19%) and a simultaneous increase in salaries.
The situation has also improved in the Krasnodar Territory and the Rostov Region. In both regions, the gap decreased from about 2 to 1.7 of the average salary per meter. Most likely, this is due to the high competition of developers and the weakening demand for housing, explained Vladimir Chernov.
Migration and the development of the service and tourism economy in the south support the demand. However, the supply is growing rapidly there, so the pressure on prices is not as strong as in the capitals, Kirill Agapov from Umbrella Consulting Group added.
Housing affordability grew across the country from the end of 2022 to the second quarter of 2023, said Evgeny Shavnev. According to him, then prices for new buildings fell by about 4%, and incomes of citizens increased by about the same amount.
The year 2009 was even more significant, the expert recalled. Then, against the background of the global financial crisis, which hit the economy hard, primary goods fell by 7.6%, and incomes increased slightly.
In which countries is housing more affordable?
In Moscow, housing is generally less affordable than in the regions. At a market mortgage rate of 18.7% with a down payment of 20% and a term of 24 years, an official income of at least 189 thousand rubles per month is required to approve the loan. This is significantly higher than the median salary in the city, estimated Valery Tumin. When applying for a family mortgage at 6%, the required income is reduced by almost half. This makes the state program practically an alternative tool for the average borrower without large savings.
If you do not take into account the mortgage, then it will take about a hundred average salaries to buy an apartment of 40 square meters, Vladimir Chernov continued. This is more than eight years of work, if you save all your earnings, and if you save half of them, it's been 16 years.
When comparing the price of a meter and wages, Russia's housing affordability is about average among the CIS countries, noted Valery Tumin. In Kazakhstan and Armenia, for example, the indicator is much worse. But taking into account the cost of the loan, the picture changes. According to the 2026 global mortgage affordability index compiled by the Danish company YouCalc (which takes into account median income, price-to-income ratio, and the real loan rate), Russia ranks 39th out of 41.
— In the Russian Federation, at a rate of 21.35%, a monthly payment consumes 235% of the median income. Only Vietnam (236%) and Egypt (266%) have worse indicators, while in the leading USA and Saudi Arabia the payment makes up 22-25% of income — the difference is an order of magnitude. This explains why in Russia the vast majority of transactions go through preferential rather than market—based mortgage programs: without subsidizing the rate, the classic market loan for the average family is now practically unaffordable," said Valery Tumin.
How to increase the accessibility of new buildings
However, the market is already showing signs of cooling demand. In the medium term, this may lead to a slowdown in housing price growth, Kirill Agapov believes.
In general, in order to increase the availability of apartments, it is necessary to increase the supply where there is work and demand, Vladimir Chernov is sure. This requires prepared sites, engineering networks and transport that will make new areas livable. It is more reasonable to direct customer support in a targeted manner, since a massive reduction in the cost of mortgages with a limited supply can accelerate prices again.
According to him, a steady reduction in inflation and, as a result, a key interest rate will also help to make loans cheaper for both buyers and developers.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
