Nabiullina explained the Central Bank's refusal to lower the rate. The main thing

On September 11, Elvira Nabiullina, Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, following a meeting of the regulator's board of directors, spoke about the reasons for maintaining the key rate, the situation with inflation and lending, the restoration of production capacities, and also assessed the launch of the digital ruble and the impact of drone attacks on logistics. In addition, the head of the Central Bank spoke about the country's gold reserves. Nabiullina's main statements are in the Izvestia article.

On maintaining the key rate

At the September meeting, the Bank of Russia considered in detail only the option of maintaining the current key rate. The possibility of reducing it this time was not discussed meaningfully, Nabiullina said.

"We discussed maintaining the rate in detail at this meeting. And, probably, the difference from the last meeting is that there was no meaningful discussion of a rate cut," she said.

According to the head of the Central Bank, the decision is connected, among other things, with the growth of pro-inflationary risks, to which the regulator pays special attention. At the same time, maintaining the rate at the current level, Nabiullina stressed, leaves the Bank of Russia room to reduce it in the future.

About inflation

The central Bank expects the resumption of a steady decline in inflation as temporary factors that limit the production capacity of the economy weaken.

"We expect the decline in sustained inflation to resume as the effects of the temporary reduction in production capacity fade," Nabiullina said.

According to her, such a scenario assumes a restrained growth in aggregate demand. At the same time, the regulator will be able to talk about a steady decrease in inflation only if a similar trend is observed in inflation expectations.

To assess the situation, the Central Bank will need more data to determine the scale and duration of the impact of temporary factors on price growth. Among them, Nabiullina specifically mentioned the situation on the fuel market.

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About the restoration of production facilities

The Bank of Russia assumes that the temporarily decommissioned production capacities of the economy will be gradually restored by the end of 2026.

"We really adhere to the premise that the situation will gradually stabilize and production capacity will be restored by the end of the year," said the head of the Central Bank.

According to Nabiullina, this forecast takes into account government measures aimed at restoring and protecting production facilities. This premise is embedded in the basic scenario of the Central Bank, but the regulator will continue to monitor the situation.

If it takes longer to restore supply than currently expected, this could increase inflationary pressures.

About lending

Retail lending growth in Russia has remained moderate in recent months, especially if the mortgage segment is not taken into account, Nabiullina said.

"As for recent months, we can say that the growth in retail lending, especially if we exclude mortgages, has remained quite moderate," she said.

The situation is different in the corporate segment. According to the chairman of the Central Bank, an acceleration of lending was recorded in July after a more restrained trend in June.

Nabiullina stressed that an increase in corporate lending, along with a more substantial budget incentive, can support demand growth. If, at the same time, the recovery of the economy's production capacity is delayed, the supply of goods and services may be limited, which will create additional pressure on prices.

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About the launch of the digital ruble

The launch of the digital ruble in Russia as a whole went well, and the technical difficulties that arose in the early days were promptly eliminated, Nabiullina said.

"Yes, of course, in the early days, some customers of a number of banks had difficulties opening digital ruble accounts and being able to perform certain operations. But I want to say that these difficulties were promptly eliminated," she said.

According to the head of the Central Bank, the project was launched in accordance with the plan together with financial institutions that were supposed to provide their clients with the opportunity to work with a new form of national currency.

Currently, the regulator does not record massive problems or a large number of complaints from users of the digital ruble.

The impact of UAV attacks on logistics and prices

The impact of drone attacks on Russian logistics chains remains insignificant so far and does not have a significant impact on inflation, said the chairman of the Central Bank.

"As for the impact of UAV attacks on logistics chains, so far the impact on inflation is quite low, insignificant," Nabiullina stressed.

At the same time, the situation in the fuel market requires attention due to the risk of secondary effects. Changes in the cost of fuel can affect prices not only directly, but also through an increase in transportation and logistics costs.

That is why the Central Bank takes into account further dynamics in the fuel market when assessing the sustainability of inflationary processes.

About Russia's gold reserves

Russia ranks sixth in the world in terms of the volume of gold held in the country's international reserves, Nabiullina said.

"We rank sixth in the world in terms of gold reserves — more than 2.2 thousand tons," she said.

This precious metal, as Nabiullina explained, is actively used for the production of coins and in operations conducted by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Other information about its use, according to her, is not disclosed.