Money per barrel: the oil market is in a fever due to attacks by the Houthis and Saudi Arabia

Attacks by the Yemeni Houthis on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia have led to an increase in the cost of Brent crude oil to almost $ 100 per barrel. The group attacked the kingdom's territory with missiles and UAVs in response to the Saudi shelling of a prison in the province of Al-Jawf. Ansar Allah has announced its intention to launch a full-scale military operation deep into Saudi Arabia. Why the movement is preparing for such a step is in the Izvestia article.

A new escalation of the conflict

The Houthis have dramatically stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure. On September 8, the Ansar Allah movement launched a massive attack with ballistic missiles and drones on the southwestern regions of the kingdom.

Abha International Airport, the King Khalid air base and several facilities of the state-owned Saudi Aramco company, including a large oil refinery in Jizan, came under fire, where a large fire broke out as a result of the arrival. According to the Saudi authorities, 73 people were injured. The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Energy has already confirmed that due to serious damage, the work of several power facilities in the south of the country had to be temporarily stopped.

Representatives of the movement said that this attack was revenge for Saudi Arabia's strike on a prison in the province of Al-Jawf. The raid took place on September 7. According to the Houthi-controlled Al Masirah TV channel Dozens of people were trapped under the rubble of a correctional facility in the city of Al-Hazm. Rescuers recovered the bodies of 11 victims, including a child, from the rubble. According to the head of the prison, dozens of people still remain under the ruins of the building: both prisoners and relatives who visited them.

Prison control is one of the ways the Houthis are trying to prove their legitimacy. To demonstrate to the people of Yemen and the world community the status of legitimate government, Ansar Allah holds key state institutions: courts, police and correctional system. The movement regarded the attack on the prison as a direct challenge, but control over correctional facilities is only a small part of this conflict. Orientalist and political scientist Elena Suponina explained to Izvestia.

According to her, the main goal of the Ansar Allah group now is to hold key ports and transport corridors, which bring them huge revenues from customs duties. The expert stressed that the Houthis will continue to respond harshly to any attacks that threaten their political or financial interests.

The offensive of the government army of Yemen

The leadership of Ansar Allah promised to announce the start of a large-scale military operation in Saudi Arabia in the near future. Losing ground on the front, the Houthis are going all in and trying to move the conflict to the territory of the kingdom, which is actively supported by the official Yemeni authorities, Elena Suponina noted.

The army is currently conducting an active counteroffensive in the key northern provinces of Marib and Al-Jawf. The latter borders Saudi Arabia, which makes it strategically important. If government forces manage to oust the Houthis from there, the group will lose control of key roads and supply routes to the areas from where it launches drones and missiles. Riyadh provides full air support to the ground forces. On September 7, Saudi aircraft and cruise missiles attacked Houthi positions in the provinces of Al-Jawf, Al-Bayda, Marib and Taiz, and on September 8, repeated strikes on Marib.

At the same time, the forces of the parties are completely unequal: Saudi Arabia is seriously technologically superior to its rival. relying on modern Western weapons. However, the Houthis are successfully compensating for this gap with guerrilla tactics. They use an extensive network of underground tunnels and actively use kamikaze drones to target the kingdom's infrastructure.

Iran's influence plays a key role in these events., emphasized Elena Suponina. In her opinion, it cannot be ruled out that by exacerbating the situation in the region right before the November US congressional elections, Tehran is trying to damage Donald Trump's reputation. To do this, the Iranian authorities use all available levers, including attacks by the Houthis.

The Ansar Allah movement itself categorically denies the status of an Iranian "proxy force." The Houthis position themselves not as puppets, but as strategic allies and partners of Tehran in the joint struggle against the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Iranian leadership fully shares this position.

How attacks in the region affect oil prices

Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities have raised the price of Brent crude oil to almost $100 per barrel, Sergei Tolkachev, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

Saudi Arabia is the main regulator of the global oil market. It is Riyadh that sets the tone at OPEC+ meetings, where it is decided whether to reduce or increase production of raw materials. In addition, Saudi oil is one of the cheapest in the world, with a cost of only $3-5 per barrel. Under these conditions, any successful attack on Saudi Aramco facilities exposes the vulnerability of the local infrastructure. Even if the actual damage to the plants is minimal, the very fact that the air defense is breached forces the exchanges to include the worst-case scenarios in the cost. Investment funds immediately start buying futures, fearing that the next strikes could completely disable large terminals or pumping stations.

Tolkachev called the Houthis' blockade of Saudi vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait another factor in the price increase., the southern gate to the Red Sea. About 10% of the world's maritime trade in oil and petroleum products passes through this narrow corridor, but carriers are afraid to use it due to regular attacks by Ansar Allah. Now, instead of taking a short route through the Suez Canal, some tankers circle Africa through the Cape of Good Hope. This route is longer by 10-14 days, which dramatically increases the cost of freight and increases insurance premiums. Due to transport delays, there is a temporary shortage of available vessels on the market. Raw materials get stuck in the ocean and do not have time to reach refineries in Europe and Asia on time, which provokes a sharp jump in prices.

In addition, due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the region risks facing a huge reduction in shipping, and it is still unclear when the crisis will end. It was in this situation that Washington began to develop oil fields in Venezuela.

Tolkachev added that the United States plans to expand the share of Latin American oil on the world market and reduce dependence on supplies from the Middle East, where the United States is gradually losing influence. The energy sector is currently undergoing a transition period, forming a new architecture of fuel flows. During periods of short-term calm, quotes may temporarily roll back to $80-90 per barrel. However, unresolved military and political issues preserve the risks of sharp price fluctuations in the future.

Constant attacks on key maritime arteries are finally destroying the former system of collective security of navigation. Under these conditions, global stability begins to depend directly on the ability of States to protect trade routes and diversify supplies of raw materials, bypassing conflict zones.