Cold games: Europe is approaching winter with a record gas shortage
After the abnormal heat wave and amid risks for LNG supplies through the Hormuz, the European fuel market is becoming increasingly volatile. Having abandoned Russian pipeline gas, the EU is now almost 60% dependent on supplies from the United States and Norway, and the main threat this winter may not be a shortage of hydrocarbons, but a new price spike, the expert community told Izvestia. The European Union is entering the heating season with the lowest gas storage capacity in 15 years — 65.6%. Among the most vulnerable EU countries is the traditional industrial locomotive of Europe, Germany. The Bundestag emphasizes that the current gas pricing model in Europe deprives the German industry of international competitiveness.
Reduction of stocks in European storage facilities
Brussels is looking for new sources of gas and expects to avoid a repeat of the 2022 crisis, but Europe's preparations for winter are noticeably slower than in previous years. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), by the beginning of September, underground gas storage facilities were filled by only 65.6%, which is the lowest figure for this period since 2011. The official representative of the European Commission, Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, following a briefing in Brussels on September 4, called an even lower figure — 65%. A year ago, the level exceeded 80%, and in 2023-2025, EU countries entered the heating season with reserves close to 90%. The current lag was the first serious signal that after the abandonment of Russian energy resources, the European gas supply model remains vulnerable anyway.
In four years, Europe has almost completely changed the structure of fuel imports. Currently, Norway provides about 30-33% of supplies, while the United States accounts for another 25%, and together these two countries cover almost 60% of the EU's external needs. But, unlike pipeline gas, LNG is sold on the world market: tankers go to places where the price is higher. Therefore, in winter, the EU will have to compete for free volumes not only with its neighbors, but also with Asia's largest importers — China, Japan and South Korea.
As Matthias Mosdorf, a member of the Bundestag from the Alternative for Germany party, told Izvestia, the bet on American LNG and Norwegian gas did not compensate for the advantages of previous long-term contracts with Russia.
— It was a big mistake. We have abandoned Russian pipeline gas, but we continue to buy the same gas through intermediaries and at much higher prices," the parliamentarian stressed. — Today, German industry and business pay some of the highest energy tariffs, and enterprises are losing their international competitiveness. This is not in the interests of Germany.
Europe's energy dependence has not disappeared, it has only changed its shape. Instead of one major pipeline supplier, the EU has become tied to the global market, where the cost of gas is simultaneously determined by demand in the largest LNG export terminals - Rotterdam, Doha, Houston, Tokyo and Beijing, Alexander Frolov, deputy director of the MGIMO MIEP, told Izvestia. That is why the main threat to Europe will be not so much a physical shortage of fuel as a new round of rising gas prices, he explained.
Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium are the most at risk — they came to autumn with some of the lowest reserves among the key EU economies, and it is through Dutch and Belgian gas hubs that a significant part of Central Europe is supplied. At the same time, Italy remains the most sensitive to price increases, where gas accounts for up to 90% of the cost of electricity, as well as Hungary, Greece and Romania, whose economies and consumers are experiencing higher fuel prices faster than others. In the Netherlands, exchange prices at the TTF hub are almost instantly transferred to tariffs for households and businesses, making the country one of the first where any jump in gas prices is reflected in consumer bills.
For Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic and other energy-intensive economies, the rising cost of gas means not only higher heating costs, but also a further decline in the competitiveness of the chemical, metallurgical and glass industries.
Risks of rising gas prices in Europe
Weather remains one of the main triggers for price fluctuations in 2026. The abnormal summer heat and drought have dramatically increased the consumption of electricity to cool the air. Daily consumption increased by 28% in Italy, by 23% in Hungary, by 14% in France and by 13% in Spain.
At the same time, the heat reduced the production of nuclear and hydroelectric power plants due to overheating and shallowing of rivers, and a weak wind reduced the production of electricity at wind farms by almost 40%. As a result, it was gas-fired power plants that became the main backup source of generation, and the additional demand for this type of fuel coincided with the high competition in Europe and Asia for LNG, which accelerated price increases and slowed down pumping into storage facilities in the West.
Another factor that could complicate the gas situation in Europe remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's LNG supplies, primarily Qatari, normally pass. After the escalation of the conflict around Iran, navigation in the Strait turned out to be limited: some gas carriers were forced to change routes, and individual LNG shipments were already reloaded outside of Hormuz, which increased the delivery time and cost. For Europe, this again means increased competition with Asia for free volumes of liquefied natural gas and additional pressure on prices, even if there is no physical shortage of fuel.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in September and the first half of October, also poses a risk to Europe. According to the forecast of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 13-19 named storms are expected this year, from six to ten hurricanes, of which three to five may reach the third category or higher. The greatest threat is on the Gulf coast, where more than 80% of the US export capacity for liquefied natural gas is concentrated.
At the same time, there is no shortage of fuel in the United States itself. There are about 91 billion cubic meters of gas in American underground storage facilities, which is close to the average level of the last five years and allows us to simultaneously meet domestic demand and maintain high volumes of LNG exports.
But the problem lies in logistics. Even a short-term shutdown of the American terminals Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Freeport or Cameron can delay the dispatch of dozens of gas carriers. When underground gas storage facilities (UGS) are only 65.6% full, even a few weeks of delays can trigger a noticeable increase in prices, Alexander Frolov notes.
At the same time, in absolute terms, there are now about 70 billion cubic meters in European UGS facilities — more than the full storage capacity of the EU in the early 2010s, the expert notes. In addition, gas consumption decreased from 415 billion cubic meters. In 2021, to the expected 325-330 billion in 2026, so current reserves cover a larger share of demand than a few years ago. The expert attributes the main risks of this winter to the weather, European and Asian competition for LNG, and disruptions in global logistics.
The current situation is markedly different from the crisis of 2022. Back then, Europe was faced with a sharp reduction in pipeline supplies; today, it is dependent on the global LNG market, where every available tanker goes to where they are willing to pay more.
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