It's like quotas: OPEC+ decided not to change oil production in October

The seven leading OPEC+ countries will maintain oil production in October at the September level. By the end of the year, the members of the association also do not plan to change the permitted volumes, focusing on discussing quotas for 2027. At the same time, the influence of OPEC+ on the global market has significantly decreased, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. In their opinion, the dynamics of quotations are now largely determined by the conflict in the Middle East, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and China's policy. Whether the organization will be able to regain its former positions is in the Izvestia article.

What decision was made by the seven countries of the alliance

The leading OPEC+ countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and Algeria) decided to keep oil production in October at the September level, the organization said.

Thus, the quota of the Russian Federation for oil production in October 2026 will be 9.949 million b/d, Saudi Arabia — 10.478 million b/d, Iraq — 4.431 million b/d, Kuwait — 2.676 million b/d, Kazakhstan — 1.628 million b/d, Algeria — 1.007 million b/d, Oman — by 841 thousand b/d.

The next meeting of the seven countries will be held on October 4.

Earlier, the Reuters news agency, citing sources, wrote that at this meeting the OPEC+ countries would not make any decision on increasing or decreasing oil production, and would focus on quotas for 2027.

On the eve of the meeting, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that OPEC+ does not plan new oil production cuts, as demand for it in the world is recovering, but there is a shortage of supply on the market.

At the last meeting in August, the seven countries decided to increase oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in September. Prior to that, countries had been gradually increasing volumes for several months as part of the withdrawal from the voluntary restrictions they imposed in 2023, and they completed this process in September.

In the coming months, a revision of voluntary oil production quotas is unlikely, since now the participating countries will focus on revaluing the baseline production levels from which these quotas are calculated, said Alexei Belogoryev, Director of Research and Development at the Institute of Energy and Finance. Oil production planning is a high—tech process that includes an audit of raw material reserves and spare production and refining capacities, he explained.

At the same time, Russia's actual oil production is now declining regardless of the quotas set by OPEC. Due to the decrease in oil refining due to the maintenance of some plants, according to preliminary estimates, the volume of black gold production may decrease by 2.5% by the end of the year, Alexey Belogoryev believes.

The impact of OPEC's decisions on the global market

The impact of the alliance's decisions on the global oil market and stock market quotations has significantly decreased, according to Kirill Rodionov, an independent energy expert. Now market participants and traders are primarily looking at the real volume of supply against the background of the Middle East conflict.

By the end of the year, the situation with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the Iranian conflict, as well as China's position on oil imports, will remain key factors for the oil market, said Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company.

Earlier, the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, stated that, according to his expectations, the growth of fuel reserves will strengthen China's role in the global oil market, while the role of OPEC and the number of cartel participants will decrease.

China is the largest net importer of oil in the world and manages import volumes quite flexibly, due to which the country has actually become one of the largest balancers of the global market, Dmitry Scriabin explained. It was the reduction of Chinese imports by about 5 million barrels per day in the first half of the year that helped prevent a sharp rise in oil prices to levels of $150 per barrel and above during the acute phase of the Iranian conflict. Last year, on the contrary, China's active purchases of oil in reserves supported prices, the expert said.

In general, the role of OPEC will decrease, and by about next year it will be possible to see the withdrawal of countries such as Venezuela and Iran, Kirill Rodionov believes.

Earlier in May, the United Arab Emirates withdrew from the organization. Bloomberg also wrote, citing sources, that Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC amid strengthening ties with the United States.

"The issue of OPEC's ability to maintain coherence and influence the dynamics of the oil market is becoming increasingly important," Dmitry Scriabin said.

Alexey Belogoryev, on the contrary, believes that in the long term, OPEC will regain its former influence on the global market. Currently, there is no effect from the meetings of the cartel on the market, but after the end of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, the situation will change. The main OPEC members, Saudi Arabia and Russia, have no interest in the collapse of this agreement yet.