German disorder: how Russia will respond to the closure of the Russian House in Germany

Germany has embarked on an unprecedented escalation of relations with Russia. The country's authorities announced the closure of the Russian Consulate General in Bonn on September 18 and the termination of the agreement on the Russian House in Berlin. The reason given is an incident with a UAV at Leipzig airport in early August. Moscow considered the pretext to be made up and promised retaliatory measures. Experts believe that Russia may close the Consulate General of Germany in St. Petersburg and terminate the activities of the Goethe-Institut in the Russian Federation. At the same time, supporters of a change of course are gaining popularity in Germany. The Bundestag told Izvestia that the restoration of relations with Moscow is necessary to save Germany as an industrial power.

Germany closes the Russian House

Berlin will close the Russian Consulate General in Bonn by September 18, tighten entry controls for Russian citizens, and propose new sanctions in the EU. In addition, the German authorities decided to denounce the agreement on the activities of the Russian House in Berlin.

The measures were announced under the pretext of Russia's involvement in the UAV incident at Leipzig airport. Recall that on August 4, an employee of the air harbor noticed a drone with explosives next to a Ukrainian transport plane. German Foreign Minister Johann Vadefuhl also announced new restrictions against Moscow and summoned Russian Ambassador to Berlin Sergey Nechaev.

Germany is following a further path of escalation, and the accusations against Russia after the Leipzig incident are not supported by any arguments from Berlin, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Germany, under a made-up pretext, has once again escalated bilateral relations with Russia, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told Izvestia. She noted that Berlin had not provided convincing evidence of its accusations and would receive a "decent response."

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service earlier reported that the action with UAVs in Leipzig was organized by Kiev in order to knock down the support of German opposition political forces with a pragmatic agenda towards Russia. The Russian Embassy in Berlin also called the situation a "hastily concocted provocation."

The demarche of the German side is unprecedented, and we should expect mirror measures from Russia, Artem Sokolov, a senior researcher at MGIMO, told Izvestia. Among the possible options are the closure of the Consulate General of Germany in St. Petersburg and the termination of the activities of the Goethe-Institut, as well as restrictions on individual German citizens.

— We expect Russia to take any retaliatory steps. As far as I know, there are still more than 80 German-language schools operating in Russia, and, of course, it is neither in our interests nor in the Russian interests for them to close them, say, as a retaliatory measure. In the realities of the 21st century, such an approach is simply not a future—oriented solution," Bundestag deputy Matthias Mosdorf told Izvestia.

The Russian House was opened in 1984 in East Berlin as the House of Soviet Science and Culture. The building has an extensive library of Russian literature, exhibition spaces, halls for concerts and conferences, and a cinema. Russian-German and multilateral meetings were regularly held there. The campaign against the Russian House in Berlin intensified dramatically in August. Representatives of the ruling CDU/CSU bloc, as well as the Green Party, were particularly active.

However, there were also those among German politicians who defended the Russian House. For example, Sarah Wagenknecht, founder of the German Sarah Wagenknecht Union for Reason and Justice party, announced on August 6 that she had created a petition against calls for the closure of the Russian House. The representative of the initiative, Gunther Buntemann, told Izvestia about plans to protest against the decision of the German government, the action will take place on September 4.

The future of Russia-Germany relations

Berlin has decided to actually destroy the architecture of bilateral relations that remained from earlier times, German political scientist Egor Belyachkov told Izvestia. Lowering the status of diplomatic relations between Moscow and Berlin or even their complete termination "does not look like an impossible option," Artyom Sokolov believes.

Relations between Russia and Germany are in a deep crisis due to the fault of the German side, the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed. Berlin is one of Ukraine's main allies, which is only increasing its support. Earlier, Izvestia reported that Germany had relied on providing Kiev with long-range drones, which are used, among other things, to attack peaceful targets on Russian territory. Berlin also refused to supply Russian energy resources, including the restoration of the Nord Streams, which were blown up in the fall of 2022.

At the same time, support for the most active opponents of the Russian Federation in Germany is steadily declining. In August, German media reported a record low approval rating for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The popularity of the Alternative for Germany party, which advocates a change of political course, is growing. According to Yegor Belyachkov, the topic of a sharp deterioration in Russian-German relations may become one of the key issues in the local elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg—Vorpommern, Berlin and have a significant impact on their results.

— This includes the resumption of peaceful, constructive diplomatic and economic relations with Russia. It is this factor that will be crucial for the salvation of Germany as an industrial power and Europe as a space of prosperity," Rainer Rotfuss, a member of the Bundestag from the AFD, told Izvestia.

The current German government is trying to worsen relations with Moscow as much as possible by solving short-term political problems. The disruption of humanitarian cooperation will reduce the opportunities for ordinary people to communicate. It will become more difficult to restore at least the previous level of interaction in the future. Moreover, Berlin only intends to continue the escalation.