With what results will Trump approach the congressional elections? Analysis

The results of the midterm elections to the US Congress, which will be held on November 3, will be largely influenced by the figure of President Donald Trump. Voters will show how they feel about his achievements during his second term and broken promises. At the moment, his low rating leads to the fact that the Republicans will be defeated in the elections. The state in which Trump is approaching the middle of his term is described in the Izvestia article.

Fulfilled promises

• The Trump administration is approaching the midterm congressional elections with contradictory results. Analysts who track the US president's election promises and monitor their fulfillment note that before his second term, Trump made 75 specific promises. To one degree or another, he was able to complete only a quarter of them, slightly less than half continue to be completed, and the remaining ones either failed or face serious obstacles.

• First of all, Trump will be able to present his migration policy to his voters as an achievement. He managed to close the southern border of the United States with Mexico and stop the uncontrolled flow of illegal migrants. Moreover, Trump began to restrict legal migration, increasing duties for specialists and auditing visas that have already been issued. At the same time, the president promised to carry out the largest deportation of migrants in the history of the United States. For this purpose, accelerated expulsion was introduced, the staff of the immigration police was increased and agreements were concluded with other countries (El Salvador, Liberia, Uganda, Honduras) on the reception of migrants. It is too early to sum up the results in this direction, but the White House has already noted that it has managed to expel more than 2.5 million people from the country, of whom almost 2 million left the country on their own.

• Trump has ideologically fulfilled his promise to turn the United States from globalization to protectionism through tariff policy. But in practice, he failed to introduce comprehensive duties on imported goods. For several months, tariffs of at least 10% were in effect in the United States on most of the products imported into the country, and the rate was especially high for Chinese imports. But most of the tariffs were then canceled by the Supreme Court, considering the reasons for their introduction insufficient. The White House continued to pursue its tariff policy anyway, but on a smaller scale and more targeted. Trump also promised a massive return of production to the United States, and although this process can be considered launched, it will take too long to be considered completed even in the coming years.

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• Trump can take credit for tax breaks. His "Great, Wonderful Bill" (we discussed this document in detail here) made some tax benefits permanent, introduced new tax deductions and increased existing ones. Trump is also keeping his promise not to cut basic pension and medical benefits or raise the retirement age. The reduction in tax revenues has allowed Trump to fulfill his promise to reduce the federal bureaucracy, although this is happening unevenly. While some agencies that the White House criticized have already been closed, others continue to function.

• Another fulfilled promise of Trump's can be considered the expansion of oil and gas production, the lifting of environmental restrictions on it and the acceleration of the issuance of permits for new fields. True, Trump's energy program aimed to reduce Americans' spending on electricity and gasoline, but for a number of other reasons, this promise was not fulfilled.

Unfulfilled promises

In less than two years in office, Trump has managed to break several of his fundamental promises. The main one, which may have a significant impact on the elections, is the commitment not to involve the United States in new wars. Trump intended to make the principle of "America first" the motto of his foreign policy, but he quickly violated it.

• Starting with the brief bombing of Iran with bunker buster bombs in 2025 and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January 2026, the US president began a military confrontation with Iran that has been going on for more than six months. It claimed the lives of several American soldiers, deprived the army of significant stocks of critical weapons, and further complicated the situation in the Middle East. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a spike in oil prices, which undid Trump's efforts to curb gasoline prices inside the United States and reduce inflation.

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• The war with Iran did not allow Trump to focus on his other promise — to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Trump generally intended to finish it in 24 hours, which he publicly said several times, but did not do so. Later, he claimed that such a short period of time was only a figure of speech, but in fact he intends to fulfill the promise. However, in 2026, Trump was no longer involved in the negotiation process and did not contribute to appeasement, as he did in his first year in the White House.

• Serious legal barriers have prevented Trump from fulfilling some of his promises. He was never able to cancel the automatic granting of US citizenship to all who were born on their territory, as this is a constitutional norm. Trump also failed in changing the electoral system. He intended to introduce identity cards for voting, leave only paper ballots and force polling stations to count votes quickly, but these initiatives were blocked by the courts and Congress.

How Trump is preparing for congressional elections. Analysis

• Trump is also failing to keep up with his promise to cut government spending. Under his leadership, the US national debt continued to grow and reached a record $40 trillion, although the president assured that he would be able to repay it altogether. An attempt to reduce the deficit with the help of the Department of effective government, which was headed by billionaire Elon Musk, failed back in 2025. With a growing budget deficit, Trump is also unable to fulfill a promise to increase housing affordability for Americans and reduce living costs.

Talks about a third term

• At the moment, Trump's failures and broken promises significantly exceed what he achieved at the beginning of his term. His popularity is about 35%, and more than 60% of Americans disapprove of his activities as president. This is reflected in the ratings of the Republican Party and its representatives, who are competing for seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Current forecasts indicate that Republicans are almost guaranteed to lose control of the lower house of Congress and may be left without a majority in the Senate.

• Against this background, Trump has intensified his rhetoric about his candidacy for a third term. Although the US Constitution prohibits him from running, he periodically hints that he will bypass the restrictions and remain president after 2029. He even launched a campaign under the slogan "Trump 2028", which he distributes on baseball caps. Trump himself does not explain how he intends to achieve an extension of powers, but continues to leave hints that complement the conversations before the election.