Indefinite service: The EU is preparing to sponsor the conflict in Ukraine after 2028
Brussels is betting on the long-term integration of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex into the European defense industry. The European Commission told Izvestia that the EU intends to further bring defense industries closer together and expand joint projects with Ukraine. Already, the parties are unifying standards, developing joint production and laying the foundation for Kiev's support for the period after 2028. The Russian Foreign Ministry considers such plans as an attempt to prolong the conflict. At the same time, after the recent visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow, Kiev again started talking about possible contacts in September. To what extent the military rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU complicates the settlement of the conflict, see the Izvestia article.
How the EU integrates the Ukrainian military-industrial complex
The policy of bringing the defense industries of the EU and Ukraine closer has been fixed in the documents of the association for several years, but recently Brussels has noticeably accelerated this process. In the roadmap for defense readiness until 2030, Kiev is considered as part of the European defense industrial base.
"The European Commission is actively working to deepen Ukraine's integration into the European Defense technological and Industrial base and expand practical cooperation between the Ukrainian and European defense industries," the European Commission told Izvestia.
First of all, we are talking about common procurement standards and rules, as well as joint production and access of Ukrainian companies to European initiatives. The European Defense Industry Program and the European Defense Fund are already involved in this.
The integration of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is also supported by part of the EU loan for 2026-2027. In total, European countries have allocated €90 billion to Ukraine, of which €60 billion are intended for military needs.
At the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry draws attention to Brussels' longer—term plans, in particular, to the "Reserve for Ukraine" of about €100 billion in the draft EU budget for 2028-2034.
— Back in July 2025, the European Commission proposed to include [the "Reserve for Ukraine"] in the draft multi-year financial plan (budget) of the EU for 2028-2034. We consider this step as another deliberate attempt to prolong the Ukrainian conflict," Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Affairs at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
The European Commission has indeed proposed to include up to €100 billion in the EU budget for 2028-2034 to support Ukraine, but it is still far from being agreed. Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Sweden demand to reduce the EU budget proposed by the European Commission for 2028-2034, the total amount of which is estimated at almost €2 trillion, considering such expenses excessive.
— We see that the draft of the new EEC budget submitted by the EC has not received unequivocal support within the EU. And this is not surprising. It is unlikely that sponsoring the Kiev regime in the announced amounts is compatible with solving the pressing economic and social problems of the EU member states, which have only been getting worse lately," Maslennikov added.
How will the military integration of Ukraine and the EU affect the settlement
At the same time, the diplomatic settlement of the conflict is still on pause. In the summer, Moscow announced a possible visit by special representatives of the US President Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but it never happened. But instead, CIA Director John Ratcliffe arrived in the Russian capital, who held a meeting with the head of the SVR, Sergei Naryshkin. They discussed issues that are within the competence of the special services, Naryshkin noted earlier.
At the same time, Kiev began talking about the possibility of resuming trilateral contacts with the mediation of the United States in September. At the same time, the Ukrainian side does not expect a quick breakthrough.
The EU is still not directly involved in the negotiation process, although they have been discussing the need for their own contacts with Moscow since the beginning of the year. French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni discussed this, and in June, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested thinking about the EU's mandate for future negotiations with Russia. The office of the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, even held brief diplomatic contacts with the Kremlin to open a communication channel, but was subsequently criticized for this.
— As for the resumption of direct dialogue, so far everything has been limited to a surge of internal EU speculation regarding possible candidates for the role of a negotiator from the European Union. We do not take these conversations seriously, because, judging by the statements of EU officials, the starting position of the Europeans has not undergone any changes, completely ignores the interests of our country and amounts to demands against Russia that are divorced from reality," Maslennikov stressed.
For example, the "coalition of the willing," whose last meeting took place on August 24 in Kiev, advocates a cease-fire along the current line of contact, and without stopping further support for Ukraine. The members of the "coalition" agreed to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with weapons even after the possible end of the fighting. Kiev's European partners also believe that future security guarantees should include long-term arms supplies, financing purchases for the Armed Forces, and assistance to the Ukrainian budget for the maintenance of the army. Training of multinational forces that will be able to operate on the territory of Ukraine after the cessation of hostilities is provided separately. Russia has repeatedly stated that such an approach is unacceptable for it.
"It remains obvious that all the calls of the EES about negotiations pursue the only goal — to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a respite in hostilities, to save the Zelensky regime by any means, to preserve Ukraine for themselves as a springboard for "containing" Russia, and in fact, to create constant threats to our security," Maslennikov said.
The European military—industrial complex will continue to saturate Ukraine with its products, and the only question is where it will be produced - in Ukraine or in Europe with subsequent delivery to Kiev, says Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute of Modern State Development. In these circumstances, the Ukrainian leadership has fewer and fewer incentives to follow the path of diplomacy. According to Solonnikov, Ukraine is unlikely to enter into constructive negotiations with Russia in the near future. Instead, it will increase the production of drones, missiles and other weapons with the help of European countries.
Given Brussels' plans for long-term support for Kiev, the issue of integrating the Ukrainian military-industrial complex may become one of the topics of future negotiations. The architecture of European security, which must take into account Russia's interests, may require compromises in this area.
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