Fuel issue: 84% of gas stations sold at least one type of fuel in August
In August, almost 84% of gas stations in Russia could buy at least one type of fuel. Gasoline was at about 62.5% of gas stations, market analysts calculated at the request of Izvestia. The situation was best in the Northwestern Federal District, and worse in the North Caucasus Federal District, Southern and Siberian Federal Districts. Experts note that the situation remains unpredictable due to the continuing risks of attacks on refineries, and a decrease in the hype at gas stations can be expected in October, when farmers will peak fuel demand.
Fuel availability at the gas station
In August, an average of 83.5% of gas stations in Russia could buy at least one type of fuel (gasoline and/or diesel), the analytical company OMT Consult calculated for Izvestia. According to her assessment, the overall situation was stable this month, but it still deteriorated slightly compared to July.
The analysis is based on data for every Monday of the month — August 3, 10, 17 and 24. Up-to-date data was provided from more than 16 thousand Gas stations throughout Russia, except in new regions.
According to monitoring data, fuel availability at gas stations ranged from 82% of gas stations at the beginning of the month to 84% on the remaining days. In absolute terms, on August 24, at least one type of fuel was at 13.9 thousand gas stations.
At the same time, gasoline was at about 62.5% of gas stations in August. But the catalog of available brands could vary from station to station.
At gas stations of vertically integrated companies (VICS) such as Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, Lukoil, Tatneft, fuel availability was recorded in 94.4% of cases: at 7.8 thousand stations out of 8.2 thousand included in the sample. Izvestia sent inquiries about the dynamics of fuel availability to the listed companies.
In the independent segment of gas stations, the figure was 73%: it was possible to refuel at about 6.1 thousand out of 8.4 thousand such gas stations.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, retail chains of WINKS, that is, fuel producing companies, are better supplied with gasoline than independent gas stations, as fuel availability for the latter has decreased due to a reduction in exchange sales. Earlier, by the end of the year, the government lowered the standard for gasoline sales on the stock exchange from 15% to 10%, and also allowed fuel sold through and outside the stock exchange to agricultural producers, northern import organizations, construction organizations and Russian Railways to be included in these 10%.
OMT Consult reported that as of August 24, the highest fuel availability rate at gas stations was recorded in the Northwestern Federal District - 90%. The lowest — 79% — is in the Southern, North Caucasian and Siberian districts. In the rest, this figure ranged from 80% to 86%.
The situation looks better in regions where the capacity of oil refineries is concentrated than in regions where such capacities are significantly lower, such as in Siberia and Southern Russia, Sergey Tereshkin explained.
— Each region has its own depth, structure and dynamics of the deficit. Even there may be significant differences between two neighboring regions," explained Alexey Belogoryev, Director of Research and Development at the Institute of Energy and Finance.
In each region, the situation depends on the availability of existing refinery capacities, logistics of supplies from other regions, stock status, demand characteristics, and the share of independent gas stations in retail sales, the expert noted.
Izvestia sent inquiries to the Ministry of Energy and the office of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak about the dynamics of fuel availability at gas stations.
Why has the fuel situation worsened
According to Alexey Belogoryev, compared to the end of July in August, the availability of fuel at gas stations, especially AI-95 gasoline, was worse almost everywhere, except in certain regions of Siberia. But a particularly pronounced increase in the deficit was observed in the south, in the Black Earth region and in both metropolitan agglomerations. Although by the end of August, the situation had improved in both Moscow and St. Petersburg, which cannot yet be said about the Moscow and Leningrad regions. The availability of fuel has also increased significantly beyond the Urals.
In general, the situation has worsened, as demand in August is at an annual peak due to the holiday season, construction, and agricultural work. At the same time, the production of petroleum products remained at a reduced level, and the operational fuel reserves at oil depots decreased, the expert explained.
Dmitry Gusev, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association, believes that the fuel shortage is primarily due to UAV attacks on oil refineries. There are also logistical problems and high demand, both seasonal and speculative. Against the background of problems, consumers are buying for the future. Thus, the lack of supply in the market is faced with a doubly increased demand.
The first wave of queues and fuel shortages at gas stations in Russia occurred at the end of May and lasted about a month and a half. At the end of July, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that the fuel balance and the situation at gas stations in the Russian Federation had improved.
In mid-August, Izvestia wrote about a new wave of queues at gas stations. At the same time, a number of regions began to re-introduce or extend restrictions on the sale of fuel at gas stations.
Earlier, the government had already taken a number of measures to stabilize the situation in the fuel industry: it imposed a temporary ban on the export of gasoline and diesel, allowed Euro-2, Euro-3 and Euro-4 ecological fuel classes to be put into circulation, installed an import damper to stimulate fuel supplies to the Russian Federation, and changed exchange mechanisms.
At the end of the week, Kommersant, referring to the minutes of meetings with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, reported that the government would consider the possibility of controlling the entire chain of turnover of petroleum products in the domestic market with a volume of 1 ton and plans to introduce new measures to control fuel prices. The Federal Antimonopoly Service, the Ministry of Energy and oil companies have been instructed to determine indicative fuel prices for individual regions, which will become the main control for the entire supply chain.
Also, in order to stabilize the pricing of Euro-2, Euro-3 and Euro-4 gasoline, the Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service have been instructed to prepare proposals to increase the sale of such petroleum products on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange. In parallel, the regions are recommended to conclude pricing agreements with independent market participants.
Dmitry Gusev and Alexey Belogoryev believe that a decrease in active seasonal demand for fuel can be expected from mid-September or October.
At the same time, the global improvement of the situation will largely depend on the dynamics of production at the refinery, experts say.
— In cities with millions of inhabitants, the availability of fuel will be affected by changes in logistics. The refinery's capacity will be used primarily to supply large agglomerations," said Sergey Tereshkin.
Alexey Belogoryev believes that the complete stabilization of fuel supplies at gas stations should not be expected before November. Dmitry Gusev believes that the authorities will deal with the situation until the end of the year.
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