Diplomatic priority: Why the Tehran-Doha talks are important

The Qatari Prime Minister arrived in Tehran on an official visit for the first time since February 2026, when the United States and Israel began hostilities against Iran. The arrival of a high-ranking official is hardly accidental: Doha remains one of the key mediators in the region and seeks to reduce the degree of tension by any means possible. This includes contributing to the promotion of related diplomatic initiatives. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that Qatar is trying not so much to achieve a deal as to prevent previous agreements from crumbling. Therefore, it is hardly worth expecting serious breakthroughs yet.

Who did Al Thani meet?

After arriving in Tehran, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The parties discussed the situation in the Gulf and expressed their mutual intention to work towards a gradual de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The Qatari side, in particular, continues to promote the formula of freedom of navigation within the framework that existed before February 28. Tehran, on the other hand, insists on adjusting the terms of use of the strait, taking into account the situation "on the ground."

Negotiations with Araghchi are not the only item on Al Thani's working agenda. He is expected to hold meetings (including private ones) with other senior Iranian officials representing the Parliament and the Security Council.

In particular, it is expected that the negotiations will raise the issue of the fate of three Iranian military pilots, whose Su-24 fighter jets were shot down during a raid on facilities in the Gulf in early March. Despite the fact that Doha denies that the pilots were captured, Iran is convinced that they are still alive, injured and in need of medical attention. Therefore, over the past week, Tehran has repeatedly demanded that Doha ensure access of Iranian representatives to the prisoners.

In this regard, Said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit, noted that the surge in negotiation activity around Iran may partly be dictated by the domestic political interests of the American elites. "President Trump is probably looking for ways to end the ceasefire and resolve the conflict ahead of the November midterm elections in the United States. The president needs tangible successes, especially against the background of humiliating failures in his confrontation with Iran," he said.

In this context, Qatar, as a regional ally close to Washington, but at the same time not in a state of direct confrontation with Tehran (unlike, for example, the UAE), is quite capable of providing the necessary level of communication and delivering signals to the White House.

At the same time, Al Thani's visit to Tehran should be considered primarily as an integral part of the larger settlement process. Nikolai Sukhov, a leading researcher at the IMEMO Center for Middle East Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia that negotiations between Iran and the United States had not actually stopped, and now they had entered the public stage. The visit of the Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister indicates that the process has become more official.

At the same time, according to the expert, the discussion of possible agreements continues not only with the participation of Qatar: other mediators, Oman and Pakistan, still play a significant role. However, the situation inside Iran itself complicates everything.: There is a struggle going on between the "hawks", including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and that part of the country's leadership that advocates early negotiations and an end to the conflict.

The negotiation background is deteriorating

Al Thani's visit comes amid another round of US economic pressure on Iran. By announcing plans to expand sanctions against the Islamic Republic and strengthen the naval blockade to limit oil revenues, as well as announcing a reward for information on the whereabouts of key figures in the Iranian establishment, Washington has effectively declared a hybrid war on Iran. And although the White House still intends to refrain from military actions (as previously stated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio), the United States does not plan to make concessions to Tehran.

Moreover, the United States intends to send the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Middle East, which will stay in the region for at least seven months and will participate in the "comprehensive deterrence" of Iran.

Political analyst Advan Hisham is confident that the US attempts to force Iran into a deal through non-military pressure will not contribute to a quick way out of the crisis. And on certain issues, they can also increase nervousness in Tehran. The operation "Economic Rogue" announced by Washington primarily targets the conditionally liberal, reformist camp, which does not object to a compromise deal provided that the American side complies with previously agreed security guarantees for the Islamic Republic.

Given that the reformists promised the electorate an easing of the sanctions regime and the reintegration of Iran into the global economy, the US campaign makes these promises unrealistic. This may lead to a shift of sympathies in favor of the conservative wing and, as a result, make Iran's negotiating position even less flexible. Especially in matters related to such symbolic categories as control over the Strait of Hormuz, the expert believes.

This poses a difficult task for the Qatari mediators. Moreover, representatives of Pakistan and Oman had already visited Tehran shortly before Al-Thani, who also discussed ending the conflict and restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Their proposals — including collective control over shipping, systematization of transit payment mechanisms and entry duties — did not cause obvious rejection from the Iranian side, however, given the recent actions of the United States, Tehran is in no hurry to finalize any of the intermediary transactions. Although the authorities of the republic declare that they are "one step away from agreeing" on a joint mechanism with Oman for regulating maritime traffic.

Therefore, Qatar, judging by the cautious rhetoric of Prime Minister Al-Thani, is still trying to balance the situation by "compiling" proposals from other international mediators, putting together a new "formula for peace" based on what Islamabad and Muscat had previously proposed. And it does this to keep them afloat. In the current circumstances, Qatar is trying to guarantee that economic pressure on Tehran will not escalate into war, and the neighboring Arabian monarchies have no hostile plans against Iran.