We found winds in the field: new data on squalls will help warn of emergencies in time

Russian scientists have found out in what conditions powerful destructive winds are formed — long-lived squalls. The most dangerous of them — derecho — leave behind hundreds of kilometers of destruction. Thanks to the data obtained, weather forecasters and special services will be able to warn about the threat in advance. Based on the study, they also plan to create a map of the most dangerous regions of Russia from this point of view. According to experts, the frequency of storms is increasing due to global climate change. The danger is especially relevant for our country, as our average temperature is increasing faster than in the whole world.

How long-lived squalls originate

Long—lived squalls are an extremely dangerous natural phenomenon that is often underestimated. In Russia alone, they have claimed the lives of at least 91 people and injured 539 others in recent years. This is how Alexander Chernokulsky, Deputy Director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia the relevance of the study, which was recently completed under his leadership.

—For example, large squalls in Moscow in 1998 and 2017, in the Northwest in 2010 and in the Volga region in 2023, individually claimed more lives than almost any previously recorded tornado in Russia," the scientist noted. — Therefore, the risks of such destructive phenomena must be taken into account by both forecasters in short-term weather forecasting, and departments dealing with housing and communal services, forestry and emergency situations.

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Moreover, their number is increasing. For example, a series of similar storms in late May and early June 2026 took place in the Perm Region. As a result, a forest was felled on a 400 km long strip. One of the strongest passed on May 28 from the southeast to the northwest from Chusovsky to Gaynsky district of the region. According to media reports, the total area of continuous windfalls (arrays of trees felled by the wind in one direction) amounted to at least 2.7 thousand hectares.

IFA RAS specialists, together with colleagues from a number of other scientific organizations, studied 41 such phenomena that occurred in Russia from the European part to the Far East from 2001 to 2024. As a result, they described the conditions of origin and the features of the development of long—lived squalls - powerful wind currents that cause storms and destruction. The data obtained will help to track them in advance and warn people about the danger in time. The study will also provide an opportunity to create a map of Russia that will show how likely these and other climate hazards are in different regions.

Previously, it was not known how often such phenomena occur in Russia, especially in the Siberian forests. Observations here were difficult due to the small number of weather stations, the lack of continuous radar coverage, and the difficulties of collecting data in the taiga. To solve this problem, the scientists used a combined approach: they combined ground-based meteorological observations with the analysis of satellite images, which clearly show large-scale forest winds.

Dangerous winds in Russia

In total, the authors found more than 1,300 wind turbines on satellite images and compared their location with meteorological data and storm reports. As a result, the researchers tracked the trajectories of 41 long-lived squalls, determined the length of their path and the width of the damage zone. In addition, according to the observations of weather stations, scientists have determined which atmospheric conditions contributed to their birth. It turned out that most storms occur when enough energy accumulates in the air for a thunderstorm and a strong vertical wind shear appears — a phenomenon in which the wind blows at different heights at different speeds and in different directions.

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Of the 41 identified storms, five were classified as derecho. These strongest squalls left behind a path of destruction more than 400 km long.

According to Irina Oberemok, a researcher at the International Scientific Center for Ecology and Climate Change at NTU Sirius, one of the manifestations of climate change is an increase in atmospheric energy, a kind of fuel for thunderstorms and squalls. This is manifested in an increase in the frequency and intensity of dangerous weather events, such as squalls, heavy rains and heavy downpours.

This trend is particularly relevant for Russia: the average temperature is rising faster due to the Arctic increase, which changes temperature gradients and can create more favorable conditions for the formation of dangerous squalls in areas where they were not previously typical.

— The research is extremely valuable because it helped to overcome the barrier of insufficient coverage of the network of meteorological stations using remote sensing of the Earth. On this basis, it is possible to create an automated windfall detection system, a map of Russia's climate hazards for regional adaptation plans, and an integrated early warning system. The methodology of combining satellite and ground—based data opens the way for studying other natural hazards in remote areas," said Irina Oberemok.

Derecho poses huge underestimated risks to people and infrastructure. In addition, massive forest windstorms release accumulated carbon and disrupt forest ecosystems over vast areas, turning the forest from a carbon sink into its source, the expert added.

According to Evgeny Vishnevsky, NTI expert on new materials and technologies, combining ground—based data with the analysis of satellite images of wind turbines is a methodologically strong solution. The results of the study can be useful for forestry and energy, so that preventive measures can be taken in time and power lines do not break down. And also for the design of infrastructure in wind regions.

The research, supported by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (RSF), also involved staff from Perm State Research University and the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information, the World Data Center (Obninsk).