Put on neutrality: can Switzerland lift sanctions against Russia
Bern will have to lift the current restrictions against Moscow if the initiative to tighten neutrality is approved in a referendum on September 27, the Swiss Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. It proposes to enshrine permanent armed neutrality in the Constitution and prohibit sanctions against belligerent states, except for measures approved by the United Nations. So far, according to the latest data, there are fewer supporters of the initiative than opponents. At the same time, as noted in the Russian embassy, Bern may find loopholes that will allow it to maintain restrictions against the Russian Federation even if the principle of the country's neutrality is tightened.
Chances of approval of a popular initiative
In less than a month, a referendum will be held in Switzerland, where residents will decide whether the country should strengthen its policy of neutrality. According to Reuters, posters with doves of peace and calls to stay away from global conflicts have already appeared on the streets.
The issue of enshrining the principle of eternal armed neutrality in the Constitution, as well as a ban on any sanctions other than those approved by the UN Security Council, will be put to the vote. The Swiss Foreign Ministry states that if the initiative is approved, Bern will not only be unable to join future EU sanctions against Russia, but will also be obliged to lift existing restrictions.
— According to the text of the initiative, Switzerland should not impose sanctions against states participating in the war. If the initiative is adopted, Switzerland will no longer be able to join the sanctions against the belligerent state. Thus, in particular, it will become impossible to join EU sanctions similar to those that the European Union has been imposing against Russia since February 2022," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Lea Zürcher told Izvestia. — Based on the wording of the initiative, it should also be assumed that if it is adopted, the existing sanctions against the belligerent states will have to be lifted.
Switzerland has joined almost all the sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia since 2022. On August 20, Bern, in particular, approved the introduction of a number of restrictions against Russia's energy, financial and trade sectors, provided for by the 20th package of EU sanctions. In 2024, Switzerland officially announced that it intends to develop "in-depth cooperation" with the NATO bloc. At the same time, the Foreign Ministry noted that if the initiative on eternal armed neutrality is approved, Switzerland will have to reduce the level of interaction with the North Atlantic Alliance.
"Obviously, in accordance with the initiative, cooperation will have to be limited compared to today, for example, in the field of joint exercises with NATO or data exchange," the ministry explained.
The initiative was launched back in November 2022 in response to the government's decision to join EU sanctions against Russia. The approval and approval process took several years. The authors of the idea believe that Bern has thus departed from the principle of neutrality and jeopardized the security of the country and its inhabitants. The main supporter of the reform is the country's largest conservative Swiss People's Party. They believe that abandoning the previous course harms the international image of the state. In particular, this has led to the fact that Russia no longer sees Switzerland as an impartial mediator to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.
The Federal Government recommends rejecting the initiative. The Cabinet of Ministers refers to the need to adhere to "flexible neutrality", obviously fearing to spoil relations with the EU and NATO. Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said earlier that approval of the proposal "would certainly create serious problems with the neighbors."
How Switzerland can circumvent the rules of neutrality
Since this popular initiative requires a change in the Constitution, a simple majority of citizens' votes will not be enough. Switzerland has a double majority system for such reforms. Firstly, the idea should be supported by more than 50% of all those who voted in the country. Secondly, it needs to be approved by a majority of the 26 constituent entities of the confederation (cantons and semi-cantons). If in a particular canton a simple majority of the residents who came to the polls (for example, 51%) said "yes", then the entire canton is counted as having voted "yes". He is awarded 1 point (or 0.5 points for semi-cantons). In other words, even if citizens support the initiative, but the majority of regions oppose it, it will be rejected.
Meanwhile, Swiss society is split. If there is a YouGov Switzerland poll at the end of July If he recorded the shaky leadership of supporters of stricter neutrality (40% versus 38%), then by mid-August the same sociological service recorded a trend reversal: 50% of respondents opposed it.. Other August surveys (Tamedia and gfs.bern) confirm this trend, estimating the core of the project's support in the range of 32 to 42%.
Polls show that the idea of strict neutrality enjoys less popular support, which fully fits into the framework of the consensus, according to which the so-called pan-European solidarity is valued by the Swiss above traditional principles of foreign policy, Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, said in a conversation with Izvestia. However, the results of referendums in the confederation sometimes turn out to be unpredictable, he added.
Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, believes that the chances of a positive outcome of the referendum are quite high. In her opinion, Switzerland's neutral status allows it to remain one of the most reliable and stable global financial centers, and citizens are interested in preserving it.
If a double majority is achieved, the constitutional changes will take effect immediately — as soon as the government officially approves and publishes the final results. However, given the scale of possible changes — the lifting of EU sanctions and a review of cooperation with NATO — the Cabinet of Ministers may take a transitional period to implement practical steps.
At the same time, the confederation's Foreign Ministry emphasizes that even if the initiative is approved, Switzerland "will be able to take measures to prevent circumvention of EU sanctions through its territory."
"Therefore, if the initiative is approved, it would require a comprehensive analysis of exactly how such measures should be formulated so that they ensure the achievement of the set goal," the ministry explained to Izvestia.
Earlier, Russian Ambassador to Switzerland Sergey Harmonin noted that even if the popular initiative is successful, Bern will have a loophole to maintain its anti-Russian course. The authorities will be able to maintain the previous sanctions precisely under the guise of measures to combat circumvention of restrictions through the territory of the confederation. A similar precedent has already been established in Swiss practice. After the events of 2014, when Crimea and Sevastopol became part of the Russian Federation, Bern formally refrained from directly copying EU packages. declaring allegiance to neutrality. However, the Government has adopted a special resolution on measures to prevent circumvention of international sanctions. which de facto imposed strict restrictions on financial transactions and exports of dual-use goods for Russian companies.
Nevertheless, according to Natalia Eremina, if the initiative is approved, the country's authorities will receive a clear signal from citizens about the wrong course of action. Therefore, the upcoming referendum should be regarded as a kind of vote of confidence in the Swiss foreign policy of their state.
Historically, Switzerland has enjoyed a reputation as the planet's main neutral arbitrator for decades, which has allowed it to be a key platform for the most complex international negotiations. A return to strict compliance with this status and a rejection of unilateral sanctions pressure could restore the trust of all world capitals in Bern. In this case, the confederation will regain its lost role as an independent diplomatic bridge. This would allow the country to offer effective mediation services not only in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, but also in unraveling the protracted Iranian knot, where Switzerland traditionally acts as the official patron power. representing Washington's interests in Tehran.
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