Oil, thank you: Slovakia will not terminate contracts with Russia due to US duties

Bratislava has no plans to terminate agreements on the purchase of Russian energy resources in the event Washington introduces new trade duties, deputy head of Slovakia's ruling party Lubos Blaha told Izvestia. A law on tariffs of up to 100% against the largest importers of our energy resources may be passed in the US Congress in September. However, Washington's similar attempt to put pressure on India and China last year did not lead to success. Experts believe that the new measures will not provoke a reduction in hydrocarbon exports from the Russian Federation.

Pressure on resource buyers from the Russian Federation

In September, the United States is expected to adopt a law that provides for the possibility of imposing trade duties against countries that purchase Russian energy resources. One of its authors, Senator Lindsey Graham (listed as a terrorist and extremist), died in July, but now his sister Darlene is promoting this project. At the end of July, the document was approved by the Senate, and now a vote must be held in the lower house. Most likely, the bill will be passed, since US President Donald Trump actually supported it, calling for Iran to be included in the text.

The initiative provides the White House with the opportunity to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports of any goods for the five largest buyers of Russian oil and natural gas. The law also provides for the possibility of punishing countries that continue to purchase energy resources from the Russian Federation after the adoption of this document. The legislation provides for penalties against states that facilitate the sale of hydrocarbons from the Russian Federation.

Reuters, citing assistants to the authors of the bill, refers to Azerbaijan, Hungary, India, China and Slovakia as the five largest buyers of Russian oil. The main importers of gas from Russia are Belgium, Hungary, China, France and Japan. Exemption from restrictions is provided for countries that are rapidly reducing the share of Russian blue fuel.

Slovakia does not plan to immediately terminate contracts for supplies from Russia due to the American law on duties, deputy head of the ruling Smer party, MEP Lubos Blaha, told Izvestia.

"I doubt that because of such a brazen hostile step by the United States, we would immediately terminate all contracts for the purchase of Russian energy resources," Blaha said.

The politician emphasizes that it remains questionable whether these increased duties will be imposed and whether they will apply to Slovakia, since "loud statements by the current American leadership are rarely reflected in reality." The US tariffs, if they are introduced, will not have a strong impact on the Slovak labor market, Blaha believes.

Washington may exclude Slovakia and Hungary from the increased duties, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University, told Izvestia. For example, Washington is postponing the imposition of sanctions against the Serbian company NiS while negotiations on the sale of the Russian stake are underway. In addition, the EU is preparing to completely ban purchases of oil and gas from Russia by the end of 2027. Hungary and Slovakia are trying to fight this by challenging the decision in the EU Court.

Slovakia is extremely dependent on Russian supplies, as it has no access to the sea and is far from ports. Back in 2014, Bratislava signed an oil purchase contract with Moscow until 2029. The black gold is supplied via the Druzhba oil pipeline, which was blocked by Ukraine for several months earlier this year. Kiev also hinders gas supplies from Russia, for which the transit of fuel was stopped in early 2025. Now Bratislava receives gas via the Turkish Stream, the contract is valid until 2034.

Russian gas accounts for about a third of Slovakia's total imports, but the share of oil from Russia reaches 90%. Slovnaft's only large oil refinery is suitable only for Urals grade oil, although the country's authorities are trying to modernize it.

"Europe will face an economic catastrophe if we don't change our approach to resources"

Deputy Speaker of the Slovak Parliament Tibor Gaspar - on the supply of raw materials, the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine and the preservation of the memory of the Great Patriotic War

Against whom can the United States impose duties

The American initiative fits into a strategy of pressure on countries that continue to purchase Russian energy resources. Washington's logic is to make such imports economically unprofitable and thereby reduce Moscow's export revenues. In addition to Slovakia, Hungary, which has signed long-term contracts with the Russian Federation, depends on Russian resources.

The new Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar stated that Budapest would not abandon oil imports from Russia. But Hungary will still reduce its dependence on Moscow in the energy sector, the country's Foreign Minister Anita Orban said on August 24. Earlier, Izvestia wrote that Budapest has no plans to break existing agreements with its Russian partners. Most likely, Hungary will reduce the volume of oil and gas imports from the Russian Federation, but it will not completely abandon purchases.

Stanislav Tkachenko, Professor of the Department of European Studies at St. Petersburg State University, noted in an interview with Izvestia that in the current conditions of the growing energy crisis in Europe caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a reduction in LNG supplies from the United States, any barriers in this market will lead to a slowdown in growth or even a recession in the economy.

Last year, the United States already tried to force India and China, the main buyers of Russian energy resources, to limit imports. Washington then also threatened to increase duties. In August, Donald Trump raised tariffs on goods from India to 50%. However, the pressure did not lead to the desired results: Beijing maintained large volumes of purchases, while New Delhi continues to increase imports of Russian oil.

This year, its shipments to India reached a historic high amid disruptions to trade in the Persian Gulf, the FT writes, citing data from the analytical company Kpler. According to analysts, in February they amounted to about 1 million barrels per day. In June and July, New Delhi already received more than 2.6 million barrels of Russian oil per day, more than half of the country's total crude imports. According to Stanislav Tkachenko, the United States will not be able to convince Beijing and New Delhi to abandon trade with Russia in the energy sector in such a situation.

Threats against buyers of Russian energy resources are related not only to the conflict in Ukraine, but also to the desire of the United States to maintain global dominance. Washington is trying to prove that any country will make concessions under the threat of a trade war. However, last year it became clear that the administration of Donald Trump had overestimated its strength. The new US tariffs are likely to be applied pointwise so as not to worsen the already difficult economic situation in the world.