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- Indian summer is under threat: weather forecasters have announced an alarming forecast for September 2026
Indian summer is under threat: weather forecasters have announced an alarming forecast for September 2026
September 2026 in Russia promises to be a contrast: from almost summer warmth in the European part of the country to night frosts in the east. Forecasters warn of cyclones that will bring rain to the northwestern and Siberian regions, as well as the possible impact of El Nino on the Far East. There is no official forecast yet, but experts are already calling this autumn one of the most unstable. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
What kind of weather is expected in September 2026
From year to year, autumn becomes a matter of dispute: is it worth waiting for the rains or will the weather please us in Indian summer? It is important to remember that Russia is a large country with different climatic zones.
"There is no official forecast yet, so we cannot get ahead of ourselves. If we look at the past years, then for three years in a row — in 2023, 2024 and 2025 — September was very warm, above normal and dry. The weather actually remained almost summery. And before that, in 2021 and 2022, September was cold and autumnal," Anatoly Vasilyevich Tsygankov, head of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service's crisis Management department, told Izvestia.
Heavy rains and precipitation may be expected in many regions. Cyclones and anticyclones, typical or atypical for a particular area, are the main factor by which it is customary to predict.
"It is important to take into account the location of cyclones and anticyclones. A cyclone is an area of low atmospheric pressure, while an anticyclone is high. At high pressure, water vapor is trapped worse, and clouds form and precipitation falls in a cyclone. This year, an extensive Siberian anticyclone remained over a significant part of Siberia for almost the entire summer. High pressure covered Taimyr, Turukhansky district, Evenkia, Krasnoyarsk Territory and the west of Yakutia. It was dry and hot there, and there were forest fires. Cyclones with fronts and precipitation passed around this area of high pressure," Tsygankov drew attention.
According to the weather forecaster, the Caucasus should also be considered separately. On one side is the warm Black Sea, on the other comes cooler air, in addition, the mountains have a significant influence on the climate. Tsygankov notes that this year the combination of these factors has repeatedly led to heavy rains.
Weather forecast for September in Moscow and the Moscow region
According to the Yandex Weather service, September promises to be cloudy with clarifications and sometimes with rains. So, in the first month of autumn, Muscovites will have only five clear days and nine rainy ones. On the warmest days, the air temperature will reach +18 degrees. The temperature minimum during the day will be +12 degrees. According to the forecast, the temperature will decrease steadily, without pronounced spikes. At the same time, the nights will be much colder: on some days, the temperature at night will drop to +4 degrees.
According to forecaster Tsygankov, the weather in Moscow largely depends on which air masses come to the region.
"Moscow is located quite high in the northern latitude, so a lot depends on the direction of air transport. When the air comes from the southwest, from Europe and from Africa, it gets warmer in Moscow. If the flow changes and the north wind sets, the temperature decreases. In the next three days, the weather is expected to be below normal, then the cyclone will move east and the flow may change to south or south-west again. Then by Friday and Saturday, the temperature may rise to about +21... +22 degrees. For Moscow, it is fundamentally important which air mass comes in — cold from the north or warm from the south," he explained.
What will the weather be like in St. Petersburg in September?
In the Northern capital in September, it will rain for a total of 12 days, according to the Yandex Weather service. The solar windows will appear five times. The maximum air temperature will reach +17 degrees, and the minimum — +5 degrees. The month will be windy — the average wind speed will range from 5 to 6 m/s.
Forecaster Tsygankov noted that cyclones are possible in St. Petersburg in September, coming from the North Atlantic, where the warm waters of the Gulf Stream are adjacent to the cold air in the Greenland region. Their trajectory often passes by Great Britain to Scandinavia, and then through Germany and Belarus towards Russia.
"This year, cyclones more often followed a northern trajectory: through St. Petersburg and Arkhangelsk, then towards Khanty-Mansiysk, Perm and Tyumen, then through the Urals, south of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, through Tuva, Khakassia, Baikal and further along the Amur. Most likely, a similar pattern will continue in September. It is along this trajectory that rains are most likely," Tsygankov shared.
What weather anomalies are possible in September
Forecasters expect frosts and rains in September. At the same time, international meteorological services do not exclude the intensification of El Nino, a natural phenomenon in which the water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than usual. Because of this, winds and air movement change, which causes heat, droughts or heavy rains in many parts of our planet. El Nino affects the weather most strongly in the Far East: Kamchatka, Primorsky Krai, Magadan, Sakhalin. Typhoons also have a strong influence on the weather in these regions, which is worth bearing in mind.
"The Far East needs to be considered separately. In Primorye, Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka, as well as in the Sea of Okhotsk, typhoons affect the weather. They come out of the Pacific Ocean, go through the Philippines to China or Japan, weaken there, but then they can affect the Russian regions. Therefore, it also rains there at this time," the forecaster said.
When to expect the first autumn frosts
Frosts began in the Magadan region and Yakutia back in August. Magadan is located on the coast of the cold Sea of Okhotsk. According to the expert, storms start there every year in autumn, the wind increases, and sea navigation is closed.
"In the eastern part of Yakutia, frosts have also been observed since about the middle of August: at night, the temperature drops to -2... -3 degrees in some places. Such frosts would be very early for the Moscow region now, although historically the first frosts at the end of August are possible here. So far, we do not see them in the forecasts for the Moscow region," concluded Tsygankov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
