The fight for second place: LDPR is gaining speed

On the eve of the elections to the State Duma, analysts from the communications agency Fabrika Smyslov published a report summarizing the results of the candidate nomination stage and analyzing the strategies of political parties. After the procedural phase, the competition gradually turns into a substantive one. Parties are increasingly fighting for an agenda and for groups of voters. And here, according to the authors of the report, the LDPR has so far demonstrated the most systematic and effective approach.

The data from the FOM weekly surveys for 2026 confirm the stability of the LDPR's positions. The party ranks second with an average rating of 9.8%, ahead of the Communist Party (8.6%) and the New People (5.7%). In 20 of the 25 weekly polls (the so-called "waves") conducted by the FOM from January to July, the LDPR confidently held the second position.

According to VTsIOM, the difference between the three opposition parties — the Liberal Democratic Party, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the New People — is within 0.2%, while the Liberal Democratic Party shares or takes second place in 10 out of 24 polls. At the same time, the electoral potential of the Liberal Democratic Party reaches 44%, which is significantly higher than the current rating. And, it should be noted, this is the highest growth margin among the opposition parties. In other words, the LDPR has a serious unrealized reserve, which the party is able to convert into votes on election day.

The experts interviewed in the report assessed the parties' election campaigns according to five key criteria: the congress, the program, the lists, regional activity and work with the electorate of competitors. The LDPR's final score of 8.7 out of 10 was the second result after United Russia and the best among opposition parties.

Experts rated the party congress at 8.5 points, noting the combination of continuity of Vladimir Zhirinovsky's course with personnel renewal.

The LDPR's election program "100 Days of Russia's Transformation" received 7 points for a specific time horizon and a clear structure that allows voters to see not an abstract strategy, but a plan of priority actions.

The federal list of candidates is rated at 9 out of 10 possible points: experts have identified a successful combination of experienced politicians, members of the SVO, women and new young people.

Leonid Slutsky's regional activity received 10 points and became the best indicator among all parliamentary leaders.

Finally, the work with the competitors' electorate received 9 points, reflecting the LDPR's ability and ability to systematically expand its audience.

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According to experts, the main competitive advantage shown by the Liberal Democratic Party in this election cycle is the technological skill of expanding the support base at the expense of different groups of voters.

According to VTsIOM, 35% of voters decide on their choice on the day of voting. According to experts, it is these millions of citizens who often see the Liberal Democratic Party where others are barely noticeable or promise something abstract. Therefore, we can say that the party is actively "attacking on five fronts" today, consistently working with every significant electoral group.

For example, the "Pensioners of Russia" program with a 20% indexation and affordable medicines is a direct and serious attack on the field of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and Fair Russia. Initiatives to support large and socially vulnerable families form a broad family agenda. The inclusion of 15 SVR participants in their lists and a tough foreign policy position allow the Liberal Democratic Party to compete with United Russia for a patriotic and statesmanlike voter. Personnel renewal, digital formats and youth projects are entering the field of "New people". Finally, the formula "Russia is bigger than Moscow" makes the Liberal Democratic Party the voice of small towns, territories of Siberia, the Far East and the North. It is precisely this broad reach that allows the Liberal Democratic Party to be virtually the only opposition party today that can speak directly to everyone and be heard at the same time.

Another important aspect concerns the personnel policy of the party. Today, the LDPR's renewal is also the most noticeable among the opposition parties. Against the background of the personnel "stagnation" of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, where almost 75% of the federal part of the list repeats the design of 2021, as well as a clear narrowing of "New People", the LDPR is purposefully and actively rejuvenating its team. There are 15 members of the SVO on its lists, and 50 young candidates for the State Duma have been nominated. And this is despite the fact that regional teams are gaining more and more independence.

According to experts, the LDPR today has moved away from holding on to the "old faces" at all costs. She boldly raises new leaders, attracts new people to her banners, who enter politics through real life and real problems. And this is not just a staff rotation, it is a real generational change that allows the Liberal Democratic Party to respond to the challenges of the time, and not just reproduce the usual patterns.

Unlike the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which remains hostage to its own conservative rhetoric and personnel stability, from "New People" who have not yet found a stable social base outside the progressive urban audience, the LDPR today offers a well-balanced platform. Social justice, patriotism, economic growth, regional development and security — there are no contradictions in this formula, but there is a system capable of uniting different groups of voters. Therefore, according to experts, it is the LDPR that is the main contender for the second place today. The party does not ask for votes — it earns them by coming to those who have been forgotten or lost by others. And if a voter wants change, they will really have a choice about which approach to vote for, which party ecosystem to prefer.