Labor prudy: unemployment has started to rise in Moscow and major regions
The first signs of cooling of the labor market appeared in large regions. In the capital, the number of unemployed jumped by 70% over the year, in the Sverdlovsk Region — by 84%, and in the Moscow Region — by 36%. This rather indicates a normalization of the situation: before that, the country had a record low unemployment rate — it reached 2.1%. Now companies have become more cautious about hiring new employees or reducing staff. What areas have been affected and is there a risk that unemployment will spread to the whole country? — in the Izvestia article.
Unemployment in Russian regions — where it is higher
The average unemployment rate in Russia in June, according to Rosstat, was 2.2%. However, the indicators vary greatly in the regions. For example, in the second quarter of 2026, the lowest figure was in the Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod regions - 0.9%, and the highest — in Ingushetia (22.6%).
Over the past year, the situation has begun to change: in a number of regions, the number of officially unemployed has increased significantly. In Moscow, it increased by 70% to 98 thousand people in April–June 2026. Unemployment in the capital rose from 0.8% to 1.3%, Izvestia calculated based on Rosstat data.
In the Chelyabinsk region, the number of unemployed citizens increased by more than a quarter, to 36.7 thousand, and their market share reached 2%. In the Moscow region, the number of officially unemployed increased by more than a third (to 88.5 thousand), and the unemployment rate was 1.8%. The same trend is observed in the Kemerovo region: now about 8.6 thousand residents are looking for work in the region, and unemployment has jumped to 3.3% against 2.6% a year earlier.
The most significant growth was recorded in the Sverdlovsk region: plus 84%, up to 56.8 thousand people. Unemployment there increased from 1.5% to 2.7%.
However, this does not indicate the degradation of the labor market, but rather its gradual recovery from a state of critical overheating and a move towards greater balance, business representatives and university experts explained to Izvestia.
At the same time, as Vladimir Smirnov, Director General of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor, clarified to Izvestia, the unemployment rate decreased in 51 regions, and in 15 more it remained at the same level.
Rosstat does not set a "normal" or "ideal" unemployment rate. However, according to many experts, the 3-5% range is considered healthy for the labor market: it allows for competition between employers and applicants, explained Darina Medvednikova, a junior researcher at the Center for Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Presidential Academy (RANEPA).
Why unemployment is rising
One of the main reasons for the increase in unemployment in large economic centers and industrialized regions is a high key one (14%). Borrowed funds are still very expensive, which constrains investment demand, said Albina Khamitova, the owner and head of Eco Start. Thus, organizations are beginning to look for ways to reduce costs and increase the efficiency of existing businesses.
— Against this background, companies are reviewing their HR policies. Previously, enterprises tried to retain employees even during downtime, fearing a shortage of personnel in the future, but now they are increasingly moving to improving labor productivity," she explained.
Large regions of the Russian Federation react more strongly to changes in business activity: There are more companies there, so even a small optimization of the number is quickly reflected in the statistics, said Roman Yerkhov, CEO of the TuBi consulting company.
Another factor is the acceleration of automation and the introduction of artificial intelligence, Darina Medvednikova from the RANEPA is sure. According to the expert, this allows companies to perform some tasks without the participation of employees, and such solutions are most quickly distributed in large cities. Therefore, a more noticeable increase in unemployment may be observed in regions with cities of millions, where digitalization and business automation are more active.
At the same time, the increase in unemployment in the Kemerovo Region and Komi is largely due to the crisis in the coal industry, where the share of unprofitable companies exceeds 70%, said Alina Poptsova, stock market analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company. According to her, the problems in this area have a noticeable impact on the labor market of the regions.
She added that the problems also affected the ferrous metallurgy: in the first quarter, steel production decreased by 10% to 15.6 million tons, which is at least 15 years. The decrease in demand, including from construction, has the strongest effect on the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions.
Unemployment is also rising in industry, construction, trade, logistics and certain segments of the service sector, Roman Yerkhov noted. According to the press service of Rosstat, according to the results of the first quarter of 2026, 16.5% of the unemployed previously worked in wholesale and retail trade, another 9.8% in manufacturing, and 6% in construction.
Unemployment in Russia in 2026: forecast
Unemployment is highly likely to increase in other Russian regions in the future, but the pace will vary, says Elena Kiselyova, an analyst at the Institute for Integrated Strategic Studies. Moreover, in single-industry towns where the economy depends on one large enterprise, the consequences of these changes may be more drastic, she explained.
By December, the average unemployment rate in the country may reach 2.4–2.5%, experts polled by Izvestia believe. In the May forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development estimated an annual average of 2.4%.
In general, further dynamics will depend on the trajectory of the key interest rate in September and October, the state of the coal and metallurgical industries, the ruble exchange rate and the parameters of fiscal policy for 2027-2029, explained Alina Poptsova. Government employment support will also play an important role.
Even the level set by the Ministry of Economic Development at 2.4% per year is still small. On the one hand, low unemployment gives people more employment opportunities, higher wages and supports consumer demand, said Alina Poptsova. However, a prolonged shortage of staff increases business costs and inflation, as well as reduces economic efficiency: companies retain even the most useful workers, and the shortage of employees is compensated by overworking and hiring less qualified specialists, she added.
Currently, Russia has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world — about 2.2%. It is close to the figures of Japan, South Korea and the Czech Republic (2.4–3%), said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. In large economies, the value is higher, and global dynamics is heterogeneous. Unemployment is rising in a number of developing countries. Moreover, in some EU countries — including Denmark, Greece and Spain — the increase is due to the influx of migrant workers.
In general, the situation in Russia is still favorable for job seekers, especially those with skills in demand on the labor market, said Vladimir Smirnov from the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor. In addition, the labor market in the Russian Federation traditionally reacts to the crisis not with layoffs, but with a slowdown in real wage growth, which is now being observed, says Elena Kiselyova from the Institute for Integrated Strategic Studies. Therefore, a sharp increase in the unemployment rate across the country should not be expected.
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