Analysts estimated the ability of the AI market in Russia to grow to 830 billion rubles by 2030

By the end of 2025, the Russian artificial intelligence (AI) market grew by 29.7% and reached 316.1 billion rubles. This was stated on August 10 in a study by the analytical agency AIANA.

It is noted that the market volume has doubled in two years. According to the basic forecast, the market may grow to 830 billion rubles by 2030, while maintaining a high key rate and the current level of geopolitical risks. At the same time, the optimistic scenario assumes an increase in volume to 1.12 trillion rubles with a reduction in the rate, a reduction in geopolitical risks, the development of its own technological base and the entry of Russian solutions into foreign markets.

However, under a conservative scenario, the market volume will amount to 582 billion rubles by 2030. This option involves an increase in the key rate, increased sanctions pressure, limited access to foreign computing resources, infrastructure and models, as well as increased costs. This, according to the authors of the study, may lead to an increase in the cost of AI solutions and a decrease in demand.

In addition, Danila Egorov, founder of AIANA, predicts that in the next five years, the AI infrastructure will gradually transition to cloud services, and the market will consolidate with the emergence of large technology companies.

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In June, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, noted that AI does not yet play a decisive role in the labor market, but the influence of this factor will grow over the years. According to her, for a number of companies that skillfully use AI, it increases labor productivity.