The contract is more expensive: 41% of employed Russians work outside the state
41% of employed Russians work outside the staff of organizations — about 30.5 million people, estimated by Izvestia according to Rosstat and EMISS. Despite attempts by the authorities to whitewash the labor market, this number has hardly decreased: it has increased by about 80 thousand over the year. Most of those who work outside of collectives are legal sole proprietors, self—employed, and GPH performers. However, such formats may conceal salaries in envelopes and the substitution of employment contracts. How big the gray zone is and how its expansion threatens workers and the budget is described in the Izvestia article.
How many Russians work outside the state
In January–May 2026, an average of 74.6 million people were employed in Russia, according to Rosstat data (Izvestia studied them). At the same time, the number of employees in the state amounted to 44.1 million, according to the EMISS. The difference between the figures reached 30.5 million people, or 41% of all employed, Izvestia estimated.
A year earlier, the gap was almost the same — then the gap was 30.4 million people, or 41.1%. Thus, in absolute terms, the indicator increased by about 80 thousand, and its share remained virtually unchanged.
Over the past ten years, the scale of out-of-state employment has increased markedly. In 2015, the gap was 23 million people, or 34%, according to a study by Alexander Safonov and Daria Nekipelova, experts from the Financial University, entitled "Transformation of the Structure of Informal Employment in Russia: Trends and Institutional Factors," published in the journal of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor "Social and Labor Research."
The difference shows how much the total number of employees exceeds the number of employees on the staff of organizations. It includes sole proprietors, the self-employed, GPH performers, external part-timers, and individuals who work for individuals.
However, informal employment does not always mean breaking the law. The same sole proprietors and self-employed legally work and pay taxes on their own, explained Ekaterina Markova, an economist and independent expert on corporate finance and taxes. Illegal employment is a narrower concept that partially includes informal work: it is work without the necessary registration or with the substitution of a civil contract for an employment contract.
Rosstat's latest estimate is about 16 million people employed in the informal sector in the third quarter of 2024, or 21.3% of all employees. This is almost half the estimated gap.
The authors of the report consider the persistent discrepancy between Rosstat data and the gap in the number of employed and full-time employees to be an indirect sign that official statistics may not see all informal practices. Experts attribute the difference, in particular, to low salaries, borrowed labor and the transfer of actually full-time employees to the self-employed.
The researchers found the largest gaps in trade, construction, manufacturing, agriculture and transport.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Labor.
Why does a business take employees away from the state
Some entrepreneurs are abandoning classical hiring in order to reduce the cost of payroll, taxes and social guarantees, says Natalia Garshina, Director of Organizational Development at Rusconsult Group. This burden is especially sensitive for small and medium-sized businesses, she noted.
Taking into account personal income tax and insurance premiums, mandatory salary-related payments can amount to about 45% of the accrued amount, Dmitry Lomakin, managing partner of Formula Consent law firm, estimated. According to him, in industries with high turnover — construction, agriculture, cleaning, catering and retail — companies can avoid registration in order to hire people faster and reduce costs.
At the same time, the growth of the economy and the shortage of personnel act in the opposite direction. Competition for staff forces employers to offer formalization and social guarantees, which helps whitewash the market, Natalia Garshina emphasized.
Working outside the state can also be completely legal. For businesses, cooperation with sole proprietors, the self-employed, or a GPH contractor is often cheaper than an employment contract, noted economist Ekaterina Markova. The problem arises when civil law relations only mask regular regular work.
The boundary between classical hiring and self-employment is blurring with the development of platforms (delivery services, taxis, marketplaces), says Olga Lebedinskaya, Associate Professor of Statistics at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. A person may not be on staff anywhere, but it is legal to receive income as self-employed from several customers at once.
Will the labor market become more transparent
Further dynamics will depend on the cost of official hiring, according to economist Ekaterina Markova. According to her, reducing the tax and administrative burden would reduce the incentives to move into the gray area. At the same time, digital monitoring allows the Federal Tax Service to identify signs of substitution of labor relations with contracts with the self-employed and GPH executors.
— I would expect not so much the disappearance of informal employment as its transformation. Some people will join the staff, some will become self—employed or sole proprietors," Ekaterina Markova said.
The share of hybrid employment will continue to increase, believes Olga Lebedinskaya from the Russian University of Economics. According to her estimates, the number of self-employed could grow to 18 million in 2026 and 20 million in 2027, now there are about 17 million. The expansion of platforms, marketplaces and outsourcing services makes it more difficult to determine a person's real status, so labor and tax legislation will have to be adapted, the expert believes.
Starting in October 2026, new restrictions will apply to work through intermediary digital platforms. If a self-employed person or sole proprietor completes orders for one company for more than 60 hours per month for six months in a row, the platform should limit their further interaction. This criterion is established by a government decree and is intended to prevent the substitution of labor relations.
Earlier, the government approved a plan to counter illegal employment for 2025-2027, which includes 18 measures. The document provides for the identification of violations, the prevention of illegal hiring and the analysis of the substitution of employment contracts by civil law. In addition, since 2025, Rostrud has been maintaining an open register of employers who have been found to have illegal employment.
However, staff shortages, high rates and rising costs may continue to push small businesses towards gray schemes, Dmitry Lomakin of Formula Consent believes. It is impossible to completely eliminate employment outside the traditional state, since it is part of the modern market economy, the expert emphasized. The task of the state is to separate legal flexible formats from the actual violation of labor rights.
For employees, illegal registration means a lack of paid sick leave and vacations, difficulties in collecting salaries, loss of retirement experience and defenselessness in case of conflict with the employer, Dmitry Lomakin warned. Therefore, the main question is not to bring all 30.5 million people back to the state, but to determine which part of this gap is really in the gray area.
Thus, the labor market is moving further away from the classical staff, but flexible formats should not become a way to save on workers' rights. The social guarantees of millions of Russians and budget revenues depend on whether the state can draw this border.
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