Active disintegration: Nuclear deterrence degrades 81 years after Hiroshima

The global nuclear arms control system is in crisis. After the end of World War II, the world built a system of treaties that limited such arsenals, but now it is consistently abandoning it. The expert community emphasizes that everything that has been gained over 60 years of control over nuclear weapons has been largely lost. At the same time, nothing new has been invented yet. More and more countries see nuclear weapons as the only guarantee of protecting their sovereignty, Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy chairman of the Federation Council, told Izvestia. How the world came to this and whether there is a chance of detente is in the Izvestia article.

Echoes of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

More than 80 years have passed since the American atomic bombing of Hiroshima, Japan. The strike on it showed that nuclear weapons are fundamentally indiscriminate. At one point, 70,000 to 80,000 people died — the vast majority of them were civilians. By the end of 1945, the number of victims had doubled due to burns and radiation sickness.

Japanese survivors of the bombing and their descendants faced long-term genetic mutations, a surge in cancer, and even domestic discrimination. Because of the myths that "radiation sickness is contagious" and radiation mutations are guaranteed to be inherited, no one wanted to marry the descendants of survivors or take them as wives. The families hid the fact of being in Hiroshima so as not to ruin the future of their children.

The atomic bombings of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, and then Nagasaki on August 9 remain the only examples of the combat use of nuclear weapons in the history of mankind. At the same time, the memory of this event is not just a tribute to the victims of the past, but also a critical element of global security in the 21st century. The system of treaties that the world has built on the ruins of these cities is showing serious cracks. Today, more and more countries are beginning to think that nuclear weapons may be the only guarantee for them to protect their own sovereignty, Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

— We saw what happened to Iraq, we saw what happened to Libya, which abandoned its own nuclear weapons program. We see what is happening with Iran now. And all this, of course, is a very difficult test for the non-proliferation regime. One can only regret that this regime is in such a risk zone," he said.

Kosachev emphasizes that the five nuclear powers — Great Britain, China, Russia, the United States, France, permanent members of the UN Security Council — have a special responsibility for global security and for strengthening the nonproliferation regime. However, geopolitical differences prevent a normal dialogue in this area.

In February 2026, the START-3 treaty, the last treaty governing the strategic arsenals of Russia and the United States, expired. Negotiations on a new agreement are not underway: Washington insists that China also assume nuclear obligations, Beijing rejects this requirement, pointing out the disparity of arsenals, and Moscow insists on taking into account the British and French potentials. It is worth noting that over the past half century, the "nuclear club" has actually doubled in size. India, Pakistan, and North Korea began to informally possess atomic weapons. It is assumed that Israel owns it. According to RAS Academician Alexei Arbatov, everything that has been gained over 60 years of nuclear weapons control has now been largely lost, and nothing new has been invented to replace it.

Where is the nuclear standoff heading?

Meanwhile, the United States is developing a new nuclear strategy against Russia and China at the same time. The New York Times reported that the Pentagon is discussing an increase in the number of deployed warheads. According to the US military, by 2030, China can increase its arsenal to about 1,000 warheads against the current 500.

At the same time, France is expanding its own nuclear doctrine in Europe. As the republic's embassy in Moscow informed Izvestia, Germany will join French nuclear exercises for the first time this year.

— In follow-up to the statement by President [Emmanuel] On March 4, 2026, at the Ile Long base, Macron announced the French doctrine of advanced nuclear deterrence at a meeting of the Franco-German Defense and Security Council on July 17, 2026, Germany's participation in French nuclear exercises this year was announced. Germany will participate using conventional weapons. The French initiative is aimed, in particular, at strengthening European strategic autonomy," the diplomatic mission said.

Restrictions on the deployment of allied nuclear weapons are being lifted on the eastern flank of NATO. In June 2026, Finland legally abolished the ban, which had been in force since the 1990s. There is a similar bill in the Lithuanian Seimas. Both countries justify the decision by the need to strengthen the "containment" of the Russian Federation.

As noted by Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, Finland, Lithuania and Poland's desire to have nuclear weapons on their territory, as well as France's intention to provide forward—based forces, remain political signals for the time being - things have not come to fruition. But all these trends are already undermining the non-proliferation regime and the prospects for negotiations on the limitation and reduction of such weapons.

At the same time, the expert stressed that while these funds are not being used, strategic deterrence is working. However, there is no longer a contractual basis that would ensure its predictability. Over the past decade, the INF Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and now START-3 have consistently stopped working. Each of these tools allowed the parties to see what the enemy was doing and reduced the risk of miscalculation.

While negotiations are on hold, the arsenals are being updated. The United States is deploying a new generation of intercontinental missiles and strategic bombers. In response, Russia is putting the Sarmat on duty, China is building new mining positions and expanding its submarine fleet. There are no more mechanisms that would allow the parties to at least see what is happening in their neighbor. According to Arbatov, the world is moving towards an unlimited arms race.

The November APEC summit in Shenzhen, where Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are expected to have a chance for dialogue. However, according to Arbatov, it is not worth counting on full—fledged negotiations - neither trilateral, nor even in the format of the nuclear five, where the positions of the participants are now too divergent. A realistic maximum is a general declaration in which the leaders could restate the 1985 statement that a nuclear war cannot have winners and should never be unleashed. For Trump, that declaration is particularly significant: it was signed by his Republican predecessor Ronald Reagan. Such a document does not create legal obligations, but at least fixes a minimum consensus at a time when there is no other.