Negotiating interest: what will the Iran-Oman deal on Hormuz bring to the Middle East

The main points of the future agreement on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz were approved by Iran and Oman, which was a breakthrough amid the protracted crisis. After the news about this, world oil prices began to decline smoothly. However, experts interviewed by Izvestia warn that the Tehran-Muscat deal does not guarantee a full-fledged settlement yet. Iran still needs to come to an agreement with the United States, and they still have their own view on the situation.

New traffic pattern through Ormuz

The discussion of the agreement on a safe civilian route has been going on for several months, although the negotiations were publicly announced only recently. Prior to this, the departments of Iran and Oman worked behind closed doors on the environmental, legal and technical details of the deal. By August 6, the countries were "as close as possible" to an agreement, said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagai. The parties agreed on the geographical coordinates of the route through the Strait of Hormuz and a common approach to regulating navigation.

But in general, work on the mechanism is still ongoing. According to Reuters, the parties are considering the amount of service fees (a percentage of the cost of the cargo). They should replace the "emergency payment" that Iran introduced after establishing de facto control over the strait. The "Hormuz duty" remains a matter of dispute for now: Muscat advocates a fixed 3% regardless of the type of cargo, while Tehran requests 5-7% with the possibility of raising the rate for unfriendly countries.

Meanwhile, progress is being observed not only in the dialogue between Muscat and Tehran. According to Al Arabiya TV channel, indirect consultations between Iran and the United States are entering the final stage. In the near future, their delegations may meet again in a third country to restart negotiations. Against the background of all this news, oil prices are falling. As of August 6, Brent is trading below $80 per barrel. Prices returned to the level of mid-June, when Iran and the United States signed a memorandum on cessation of hostilities.

Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev believes that the success of the Oman-Iran talks can pave the way for a broad settlement in the region and create a mechanism for guarantees for a future agreement between Tehran and Washington. However, in an interview with Izvestia, the expert added: the Iranian side is well aware of the operational value of the Strait of Hormuz as a constant lever of pressure on opponents in the region and beyond. Especially considering that the agreement will de facto give Tehran control over all passing vessels.

In his opinion, the failure of the previous rounds of peace consultations probably convinced the Islamic Republic of the need to advance its interests without any concessions to the American side. Therefore, Iran is not ready to immediately open the strait at the first request of the United States.

Disagreements between the United States and Iran

Despite the positive background, there are still pitfalls at the current stage of negotiations. The most obvious of these is the imposition of duties on passing vessels. The United States opposes any service charges in favor of Iran for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Other Gulf countries are also unhappy with the "Oman formula" and believe that contributions should be voluntary. Otherwise, in their opinion, the right to free access to the oceans will be violated.

At the same time, the restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is the simplest issue on the agenda of the US-Iranian negotiations. Disagreements remain between Tehran and Washington over the nuclear and missile programs, sanctions, and the future of the "Axis of Resistance." Even if the United States turns a blind eye to the financial side of transit, they are unlikely to show flexibility in other areas, without which a long-term settlement is impossible. Especially on the eve of congressional elections, where it is important for Republicans to demonstrate victories in the Middle East to voters. The conflict in Lebanon has an additional impact on the situation, the settlement of which Iran considers an integral part of a major agreement with the United States. Since Israel, despite signing a framework agreement with Beirut, has not yet withdrawn its troops, another serious obstacle to long-term peace appears in the negotiations.

Political analyst Advan Hisham is confident that the United States may well abandon previous agreements in order not to ease pressure on Iran and not recognize Tehran's right to rule the Strait of Hormuz, even if it harms the image of their regional allies. These conditions have remained basic since the days of the Islamabad format. Oman's mediation mission is based on them today.

The expert recalled that Washington had already unilaterally withdrawn from the agreed agreements on the control of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz several times. This also applied to projects created with the participation of Oman, which acted as an intermediary and developer of alternative "green corridors". According to Hisham, nothing prevents Donald Trump from invalidating the agreement again, especially in light of US dissatisfaction with the very idea of payments to Tehran, regardless of whether these duties are symbolic or voluntary. According to Hisham, even if Oman tries to challenge the US position and keep the deal with Iran, the sultanate is unlikely to be able to fully resist Washington.

This creates a "band of uncertainty" around the settlement and, if the situation worsens, threatens to surge in the energy market. Although price fluctuations are unlikely to be comparable in scale to the period of the acute phase of the confrontation in March — April 2026, the market will not react so optimistically to new signals from Tehran and Washington, and price declines will become inconspicuous.