Acceleration and deceleration: the car market reached a record high in July

Sales of new passenger cars in July set a record since the beginning of the year, exceeding the previous best figure, which was recorded in mid-spring, by more than 4.5 thousand units. Nevertheless, it is premature to talk about serious changes in the Russian car market, experts say. According to experts, sales have reached a plateau, so we should not expect a significant excess of last year's figures by the end of this year. The details are in the Izvestia article.

Summer Peak

By the end of July, 122,092 new passenger cars were sold in Russia. Such data is provided by the analytical agency Autostat, based on the number of issued EPTS. This is the highest result since the beginning of the year: it is 5% higher than in June and 1.2% more than in July last year. The previous record was recorded in April — 117,541 cars. The July results exceeded it by more than 4.5 thousand cars.

Despite the relaunch of several car factories and the entry of new Russian brands into the market, the share of domestic-made cars in the July sales structure decreased slightly. If in May-June it was 64%, then by the end of July it decreased to 62%, said during the online conference "Autostat. Operational information" Dmitry Yarygin, the agency's leading analyst. He called a significant increase in sales of electric cars and hybrids another trend of the past month.

— In the spring, the share of electric trains and hybrids was about 9%, now it is already 12%. The difficult fuel situation also had an impact on the sales growth of these models. This market is developing dynamically, but it strongly depends on the availability of cars from dealers," said Dmitry Yarygin.

Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of Autostat, noted that last month, compared with July 2025, the volume of car loans for the purchase of new cars decreased by 13% in quantitative terms and by 7% in monetary terms. Previously, these figures were higher than in the same months of last year, the expert emphasized.

— Last year, at this time, there was a large number of subsidized loans. Now their volume is significantly lower," explained Sergey Udalov.

Leaders don't change

Lada retained its leadership by a significant margin in July, with 29,227 vehicles of this brand sold last month. However, the share of the domestic automaker in the market is decreasing: if at the end of spring AvtoVAZ models accounted for 26% of sales, now they are slightly less than 24%. Haval took the second place with sales of 15,606 units. The domestic brand Tenet is on the third line with a score of 12,550 cars. Geely (8,340 vehicles) and Changan (5,459 vehicles) also entered the top five. The sixth position belongs to the Belarusian Belgee with a score of 4,891 cars. It is followed by Jetour (4,387 cars), Toyota (3,724 cars) and Mazda (3,090 cars) — the products of the latter two brands are supplied to us exclusively through alternative channels. GAC closes the top 10, having sold cars in July 1928.

It is noteworthy that brands such as Slipper and Vokswagen, which were regularly in the top ten last year, are now not even in the top 15. Solaris, which was popular in the past, is on the verge of relegation from the first "tag". As Dmitry Yarygin explained, the remains of these cars produced near St. Petersburg are now being sold, and in August, most likely, the brand will no longer be in the top 15.

The past month has not brought any surprises in the "personal standings" either. The first place, as before, is occupied by models of the Lada Granta family - 11,086 units. However, this is 15% less than in July last year. But the Haval Jolion crossover, which took second place, immediately exceeded its last year's figure by 29.7%, reaching 7,202 cars sold. "Bronze" went to Tenet T7 (6965 cars). Sales of Lada Vesta fell by 10.7% (5,962 cars), and the market newcomer, the Russian Tenet T4L crossover, took fifth place with a score of 4,051 cars.

There was a noticeable increase in customer interest in Lada Niva Travel, which was in sixth place in July (3,491 cars, +37.7%), followed by Lada Iskra (3,388 cars). The eighth was the Mazda CX-5 crossover (2,916 cars), which showed the best sales dynamics — an increase of 6.9 times. The top ten also included the Belgee X50+ (2,902 vehicles) and the Haval M6 (2,637 vehicles), whose sales increased by 14.5% in July.

It is noteworthy that four of the ten models in the rating are new products that have been on the market for no more than a year (Tenet T7 and T4L, Lada Iskra and Belgee X50+).

Positive trends

The July result looks solid against the background of cautious expectations, said Nikolai Ivanov, Rolf's new car sales director. However, it is premature to talk about a sharp turnaround in the market — the current growth compared to last year is largely due to the lower base of the first half of 2025, while the base of the second half of last year was higher, he notes. Further annual dynamics may look more restrained, the expert believes.

— The market in July was influenced by the holiday season, the caution of buyers, the volatility of the exchange rate and the reduction of discounts on certain popular models, as well as the fact that Russians prefer to save money against the background of attractive deposit rates. In August, we expect dynamics comparable to July: the market will remain in the range of 115-118 thousand new passenger cars. There is no reason to expect either significant growth or a sharp decline yet," Nikolai Ivanov told Izvestia.

The results of last month are a good indicator of market stabilization, says Anton Gureev, Commercial Director of Interleasing Group. For the seventh month in a row, sales of new cars have shown positive dynamics, he notes.

— The main prerequisite for market growth is another reduction in the key rate in July. This is a positive signal from the Central Bank, which has not radically improved the conditions for using borrowed funds to purchase cars," the expert believes.

New records are in question

The minimal reduction in the key rate had almost no impact on the market, according to auto expert Igor Morzharetto. Expensive car loans remain one of the main factors holding back sales of new cars, he believes. In addition, high car prices also scare off a significant part of potential buyers, the expert emphasizes.

— The cost of models of new Russian brands is not much different from the prices of their Chinese "progenitors". Perhaps this difference will become more noticeable in the future, with the next stage of indexation of recycling, which is scheduled from January 1 next year," Igor Morzharetto believes.

Against the background of significant sales volumes last fall, the figures for the next two to three months may not only not show positive dynamics, but even go into negative territory, predicts Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine. In this case, the result of this year will be about the same as last year — at the level of 1.3-1.35 million cars, Maxim Kadakov believes.

— A lot will depend on the further decisions of the Central Bank regarding the key rate. If it drops to at least 12% in the fall, there is a chance that by the end of the year the market will be "in the black," said the editor—in-chief of Za Rulem.

Last year, the car market clearly showed low sales in the first and high sales in the second half of the year, recalled Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat. The current year is more "smooth", without strong ups and downs, he noted.

— Accordingly, by the end of the year, all the accumulated growth will be "eaten up," the expert believes.

Anton Gureev from Interleasing gives a moderately positive forecast for new car sales by the end of the year. In his opinion, the positive dynamics is expected to continue, but without significant growth.

— If the fuel crisis is resolved and there is no increase in the key rate, it is possible to sell up to 1.3–1.4 million vehicles. In case of any shocks in the macroeconomics, the July plateau may turn into stagnation," he believes.

Nikolay Ivanov estimates the market prospects at the end of the year at the level of 1.3 million cars sold. In his opinion, further dynamics will depend on the exchange rate, the availability of loans, the pricing policy of manufacturers, as well as the balance of supply and demand.