False help: the EU has not found an answer to the crisis in Spanish Ceuta

The migration crisis in Ceuta has become the first major test for the new EU rules. At an emergency videoconference on August 4, the interior ministers of the association countries expressed solidarity with Spain, but did not agree on specific new measures. At the same time, 22 states had previously criticized Madrid and called the incident a consequence of the policy of the government of Pedro Sanchez. According to experts, such crises will be repeated because the EU migration pact does not eliminate their main causes.

Negotiations of Interior ministers were held in the EU

At an emergency videoconference, EU interior ministers supported Madrid in connection with the migration crisis in Ceuta, Spain. The interior ministers expressed solidarity with Spain, but did not publicly announce specific new measures. Instead, the meeting participants agreed to strengthen the external borders, accelerate the return of migrants and improve early warning systems, including monitoring of social networks. The next round of discussions will take place in October at the ministerial meeting and at the EU summit.

This crisis began just two months after the entry into force of the new EU Migration pact, which has been in force since June 12, 2026. The document obliges to check refugees at the external borders and help countries that are facing a strong influx of migrants. The events in Ceuta were the first serious test of the new rules. Since July 30, about 72,000 people have broken through the border, which is almost the entire population of the Spanish exclave.

More than 70 people died during the border assault, many of them drowned in an attempt to reach Spanish territory. The situation has now stabilized. Most of the migrants voluntarily returned to Morocco when they learned that they would not be allowed to enter mainland Spain. About 2.5 thousand people remain in the city.

It is noteworthy that at the beginning of the escalation, the EU's reaction was quite different. When tens of thousands of people were crossing the Ceuta border, Spain asked its partners for help, but instead of support, it received criticism of its migration policy. A bloc of 22 countries led by Italy and Denmark blamed the Pedro Sanchez government for the crisis. They demanded tougher protection of the external borders and allowed the return of control inside the Schengen area. Italy has introduced random checks at the borders with Spain.

In the spring of 2026, Sanchez decided to urgently legalize foreigners who were already in Spain. Those who arrived before January 1 and lived in the country for at least five months could apply. As a result, Madrid received about 1.17 million applications and by July had approved almost 610 thousand of them. The problem in Ceuta was a direct result of Sanchez's policy, which he did not coordinate with the EU, said Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. In his opinion, mass legalization has given Moroccans false hope that after breaking through the border they will easily receive documents.

According to media reports, the reason for the massive border breach in Ceuta Rumors began to spread on social media, provoked by the decision of the Spanish Supreme Court on July 8, which limited the practice of immediate return of migrants. Routes and tips were shared on social media, prompting thousands of young people to head to the border.

In Spain, the events in Ceuta will increase pressure on the government of Pedro Sanchez and make migration a key issue in the election race. According to a July survey by the CIS sociological center, migration was named the main problem of the country by 23.4% of Spaniards — in this rating it is second only to the housing crisis.

The current influx of refugees may accelerate the outflow of voters from the moderate People's Party to the right-wing VOX, Vadim Trukhachev believes. According to him, anti-immigration sentiments are growing even among Catalan and Basque nationalists in the regions where Madrid redistributes arrivals. The next general election in Spain will be held in 2027 if Sanchez does not dissolve parliament ahead of schedule. Therefore, the domestic political situation in the country largely depends on whether such a collapse will happen again before the end of his term and whether the prime minister's opponents will have time to play this card.

Why is Morocco being blamed?

Meanwhile, Spanish intelligence agencies suspect that Morocco deliberately allowed this collapse, the media reported, citing sources. According to press reports, Rabat allegedly gradually relaxed control in July, and during the main national holiday, Throne Day, it completely removed part of the cordons at the Tarakhal crossing. Footage has also appeared online showing Moroccan border guards opening the gates themselves towards Spain, but their authenticity has not been confirmed.

Rabat may use migration because of dissatisfaction with Madrid's attempts to get closer to Algeria, Morocco's main rival and sponsor of the POLISARIO Front, which is fighting for the independence of Western Sahara. But there is no direct evidence of this version. Although in May 2021, the Moroccan border guards relaxed their control, and about 8 thousand people broke into Ceuta. This happened immediately after Spain accepted POLISARIO leader Brahim Ghali for medical treatment. The conflict subsided only in 2022, when Madrid supported Rabat's plan for the autonomy of Western Sahara.

Suspicions of political pressure are also linked to Ceuta's status. Together with Melilla, these are the only EU land borders in Africa, and Rabat does not recognize Madrid's sovereignty over them. Ceuta passed to Portugal in 1415, after the collapse of the Iberian Union, it remained with Spain, and in 1995 it received the status of an autonomous city.

In the European Union, this influx of refugees is likely to be seen as using migration to put pressure on Spain, said Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry. At the same time, the expert emphasizes that there is no evidence yet that Rabat intentionally organized the storming of the border.

At the same time, such exacerbations will be repeated until the EU eliminates the gaps in its policy, Egor Sergeev believes. The new pact has not resolved the differences on the reception and distribution of refugees, so another collapse could break out on any other part of the external border of the union, he added.

The main flaw of the updated EU rules is the so—called "flexible solidarity". The Pact continues to place the main burden on border countries like Spain, Italy and Greece. Other members of the union can legally refuse to accept illegal immigrants by simply paying monetary compensation — 20 thousand euros per person. As a result, the rich states of Northern and Central Europe are actually buying off the problem, and the border regions are left alone with the influx of migrants.

Experts call the non-functioning mechanism of deportation a second weak point. The EU Pact declares the accelerated return of those who have been denied asylum, but in practice, Brussels does not have effective readmission agreements with countries in Africa and the Middle East. It is impossible to return the refugees without the consent of Morocco or Algeria. This turns the external borders of the European Union into a permanent risk zone.

The events in Ceuta have shown that the updated EU legislation does not protect the border countries from migration pressure, which theoretically can be used as a tool of geopolitical blackmail.