Conversational calm: why new negotiations between the United States and Iran may fail

Iran and the United States are returning to the negotiating table after several weeks of confrontation on the brink of war. At the same time, the sentiments of the parties, as well as the general agenda of the meeting, indicate that Tehran and Washington will not be able to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the near future. The "last chance negotiations" announced by the White House are likely to only intensify the confrontation. However, the diplomats still have a chance to prepare a lasting agreement, experts believe. However, for this, opponents will have to be flexible.

The situation around Iran has become more tense

About a month and a half has passed since the previous major diplomatic breakthrough — the signing of the "historic memorandum" between the United States and Iran. During this time, the situation has not changed for the better. By the end of July, Tehran and Washington had effectively stopped cooperating on the implementation of peace agreements due to disagreements over the control of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing conflict in Lebanon.

The United States has returned to the tactics of targeted but intense strikes on the Iranian infrastructure. Iran, in turn, increased attacks on NATO transport hubs in Jordan and Kuwait, as well as tightened control in the Strait of Hormuz and (by the hands of the Houthis) in the Bab el-Mandeb Straits, which provoked new fluctuations in oil prices.

In such circumstances, the United States was leaning towards a military scenario to resolve the crisis. However, due to the general unpredictability of the hypothetical campaign, and the high risks of political and economic costs on the eve of congressional elections, they preferred to turn to diplomacy again. Especially considering that their stocks of high-precision long-range missiles have been depleted, Reuters reported, citing sources.

Donald Trump announced the start of a new diplomatic round, which he called "last chance negotiations," threatening otherwise to multiply attacks on the territory of the Islamic Republic.

"This is their last opportunity to sign a good document," the Republican said at a briefing at the White House on August 3. He added that the United States is nevertheless "making positive progress" in cooperation with the Iranians.

Iranian officials do not openly confirm contacts with the American side. As the official representative of the country's Foreign Ministry, Ismail Bagai, said on the same day, Tehran does not plan to receive a delegation from Washington or send its representatives to the United States in the coming days. He also noted that all the Iranian negotiators are currently in the country. The only exception is Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who went to Iraq on a pilgrimage.

At the same time, Tehran does not deny the increased contacts with the Omani authorities. External observers consider them to be part of a system of indirect negotiations with Washington. However, the Iranian side explains these contacts differently. "Negotiations with Oman are focused on the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the US naval blockade and attacks continue, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain unchanged," the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.

In other words, Tehran does not intend to give in yet, despite the "conditionally positive" signals from the White House. The reason for this is excessive demands from the American leadership. Trump wants not only to conclude a peace deal with Iran, but also to resolve the nuclear issue in a "package" format, limit the further development of the Iranian missile program, and create conditions for the dissolution of the pro-Iranian "Axis of Resistance." And although, from the point of view of the United States, the minimum program is still the settlement of the shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the remaining points are presented categorically and without taking into account regional realities, which narrows the space for diplomatic maneuver.

According to political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev, Iran has almost no motivation to agree to the terms of the United States. Especially considering that the current state of "neither peace nor war" does not prevent Tehran from benefiting from the new architecture of regional relations. The confrontation between Washington and Tehran has shaped the geopolitical and economic conditions that have given Iran serious leverage over both the economies of Middle Eastern oil exporting countries (mainly US allies) and global commodity prices. The analyst stressed that Tehran would not abandon this mechanism without receiving significant concessions from the American leadership.

There are still chances to reach an agreement

Tehran and Washington still have the opportunity to fix the new regional status quo and avoid a major war. One of the potential solutions is to shift the focus of negotiations to regional players. For example, Oman, which in recent days has stepped up efforts to form a compromise plan for the organization of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. His initiative involves the creation of a common corridor for civilian cargo, which will allow unloading local ports. At the same time, Tehran will maintain full operational control over the Strait, which is fully consistent with its strategic vision.

Information that Iran and Oman are close to concluding a shipping agreement is confirmed, among others, by Reuters and The New York Times. If the deal can be finalized, it will be the first step towards resolving the crisis in the Persian Gulf.

As political analyst Advan Hisham emphasized, proxy diplomacy has a serious chance of success, since Oman is not directly involved in the confrontation and acts as a third-party player in it. According to the expert, the current situation opens up good prospects for a diplomatic settlement and the search for a compromise solution that will suit both sides. This will help to move the negotiation process off the ground.

Oman's position is also strengthened by the fact that other Arabian monarchies, such as Qatar, are ready to promote its peacekeeping initiatives. Doha, among other things, expects to be able to involve other states, including Russia, in the process. This will create a comprehensive system of security guarantees that will help reduce tensions in the region.

At the same time, Washington's excessive reliance on Oman could eventually become dangerous for the sultanate. Since Muscat has previously been attacked by pro-Iranian forces due to attempts to create an alternative "green corridor" in the Strait of Hormuz at the request of the United States, the likelihood of a repeat of this scenario remains. Moreover, Tehran expects that sooner or later the White House will try to use Oman to promote stricter terms of a future deal. Therefore, Muscat will have to exercise increased caution in order not to lose one of the last channels for an Iranian-American settlement.