Hardening of the regime: the Ukrainian Armed Forces intensified attacks on peaceful targets after the change of commander-in-chief

After the personnel changes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces intensified attacks on civilian infrastructure, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Attacks on peaceful targets have become more frequent under former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov, and now this tactic is being scaled up by the new commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces, Mikhail Drapaty, known for his harsh anti-Russian statements. As a result of the attack on the Kuban village of Arkhipo-Osipovka, seven people were killed. The United States expects to resume the negotiation process between Moscow and Kiev. However, according to experts, Washington has very little time left before the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November, after which the window of opportunity for dialogue may close.

Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks on peaceful targets

Ukraine is increasing the intensity of targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure and civilians in the territory of the Russian Federation. On August 2, a 13-year-old girl was killed and two other minors were injured in a UAV strike near a playground in the village of Printsevka, Belgorod region.

On the night of August 3, the Krasnodar Territory was subjected to a massive attack: seven people, including three children, were killed in the resort village of Arkhipo-Osipovka near Gelendzhik due to falling drone debris, said the governor of the region, Veniamin Kondratiev. Eight more civilians were injured in the Bryansk region. In addition, a drone raid led to a major fire at the Wildberries marketplace warehouse complex in the Vladimir region.

Ukraine has intensified attacks on civilian targets under the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mikhail Drapat, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large for crimes of the Kiev regime, Rodion Miroshnik, told Izvestia.

— The trends that were outlined earlier have intensified. They didn't turn around, they didn't change, they were just activated. The emphasis on terrorism, on the war against civilian targets and civilians was made precisely under [the former Minister of Defense of Ukraine] Fedorov is still being maintained and expanded by Draped,— said Miroshnik.

Mikhail Drapaty's appointment as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine took place amid mass street protests in Kiev and other major cities. The protesters demanded the resignation of Alexander Syrsky, and also called for the return of Mikhail Fedorov, previously dismissed by Vladimir Zelensky, to the post of defense minister. The personnel changes also affected other departments: the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine was headed by Rustem Umerov, who previously served as Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.

The new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attracted the attention of Russian law enforcement agencies even before his appointment: Drapaty had previously stated in an interview that he considered Russia a nation that "has no right to exist." The Russian Interior Ministry has officially put him on the wanted list.

From July 20 to 26 alone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired at least 7,195 rounds of ammunition at civilian targets, injuring almost 500 people, including 21 children, Rodion Miroshnik said earlier. According to him, the intensity of the attacks has increased dramatically.: At the end of May, about 4 thousand strokes per week were recorded, and in November last year — 3.5 thousand. The attacks are carried out mainly with the help of drones — they account for 91% of the total number of victims, Miroshnik told Izvestia. In June and July, Ukrainian drones attacked civilian buses more than 35 times. Using such tactics, the Ukrainian side is trying to paralyze the movement of civilians in the border regions.

Pick up the pace: the Ukrainian Armed Forces have sharply increased attacks on civilian targets

Since the end of May, the number of attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on residential buildings, schools, and energy facilities has increased 1.5 times.

Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy Director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, attributes the increased attacks on civilian infrastructure to the deterioration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the special operation zone. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that in just a week from July 25 to July 31, Russian troops liberated 12 settlements. According to the expert, with the help of attacks on peaceful objects, Kiev is trying to shift the focus from failures at the front, as well as destabilize public sentiment in Russia ahead of the State Duma elections scheduled for September.

At the same time, European countries provide significant support to Ukraine in this matter. Izvestia previously reported that Germany has shifted the focus of military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the supply of drones. In July, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, signed an agreement on the joint production of drones in the EU in Kiev.

Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs committee, told Izvestia that the West had turned Ukraine into "its own free military and political training ground, not only for the use of modern weapons, but also for political expansion."

Western countries are doing everything possible to block any investigations and legal assessments of Ukraine's actions in international organizations, Rodion Miroshnik stressed. According to him, in such a situation, Moscow is left with only a military response path. The Russian Armed Forces regularly launch massive strikes against Ukrainian enterprises manufacturing components for long- and medium-range missiles and drones, as well as drone assembly plants.

Prospects for negotiations on Ukraine

The intensification of Ukrainian attacks on peaceful targets is delaying the prospect of a settlement of the conflict: instead of de-escalation, Kiev is deliberately escalating. At the same time, Moscow does not abandon dialogue and is still ready to discuss meaningful proposals, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stressed earlier. However, the peace process is now virtually frozen: the last time the delegations of Russia, the United States and Ukraine met at the negotiating table was in February 2026 in Geneva.

After talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in the Philippines on July 23, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said new ideas were needed to resolve the conflict. Following this, American President Donald Trump received Vladimir Zelensky at the White House, after which Rubio promised to test the possibility of resuming negotiations between Moscow and Kiev in the coming weeks. To prepare for this process, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner may visit Russia and Ukraine in the near future.

However, there is less and less time to restart negotiations: there is no certainty that the White House will continue these attempts in the event of a Republican defeat in the congressional elections in November. American analysts predict that the Democratic Party now has a better chance of gaining a majority in at least the House of Representatives. In this case, it will be more difficult for Donald Trump to resist his opponents in matters of financial support for Kiev.

In the final dialogue: Russia is open to negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian crisis

Why is there a risk of conflict escalation and which countries offer mediation assistance?

The situation for the White House is complicated by the fact that in September, Congress is likely to pass a law on a new package of anti-Russian sanctions. Political analyst Mikhail Kucherov believes that the United States may stop trying to mediate in the Ukrainian conflict if both chambers come under the control of the Democrats. At the same time, the expert believes that the threat of strengthening the Democrats' positions in the elections will force the head of the White House to act more actively for a quick foreign policy victory that can boost his own rating.

At the same time, a full-fledged diplomatic settlement of the Ukrainian conflict will remain on the periphery of the White House's attention until the Donald Trump administration resolves the more critical crisis around Iran. In addition, the outcome of the negotiations depends not only on Washington's will, but also on the position of the European allies of the United States, whose willingness to continue military support for Kiev directly affects the positions of the parties at the negotiating table.