Without a face: the "coalition of the willing" is about to collapse

The viability of the so-called "coalition of the willing" has been called into question due to the lack of expressed leadership. The new British prime minister has focused on domestic politics, and the French president cannot be re-elected in 2027. Because of this, there are fears that the union will be left without leaders capable of keeping the "coalition of the willing" afloat. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

A coalition without leaders

A "slow death" awaits the "Coalition of the willing" amid the lack of clear leadership. This is reported by the British newspaper The Telegraph. The author of the article points out that British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who replaced Keir Starmer, has focused on domestic politics, and French President Emmanuel Macron will not be able to be re-elected for another term in 2027.

"With Cyrus gone and French President Emmanuel Macron unable to run in next year's presidential election, there are fears that a leadership vacuum will arise that could leave Europe rudderless," the newspaper writes.

The joint diplomatic efforts of Starmer and Macron, according to the author of the material, united more than 30 countries to support Ukraine and the subsequent deployment of troops to ensure an end to the conflict. Now, the French leader in the upcoming elections next year may be replaced by the leader of the parliamentary faction of the right-wing National Unification party, Marine Le Pen, who wants to withdraw France from NATO command, lift sanctions against Russia and force Ukraine to sign peace on Moscow's terms.

According to the author of the article, it is Le Pen who is the main threat to Kiev. Her far-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon went even further, promising a complete withdrawal from the North Atlantic Alliance.

In addition, a source in the British government told The Telegraph that London is already trying to understand how Le Pen's victory could affect British-French relations and the "coalition of the willing."

In this regard, the question arises: can an informal coalition exist without the leaders who actually created its political architecture?

Will the replacement help

At first glance, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz may become the potential leader of the coalition, but even this option is questionable. Firstly, the internal political situation in Germany is increasingly unstable, and secondly, Berlin has refused to join the coalition contingent to be deployed to Ukraine. In addition, the German chancellor is facing questions about how long he will be able to stay in office.

In particular, Merz may resign after the September regional elections, where the ruling CDU party risks failure. Even in the party leadership, almost no one believes that Merz will retain his post until Christmas.

The leaders of other countries are also unlikely to replace Macron and Starmer. Merz is not the only one who is considered a potentially weak link. The second speaker is Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who refused to participate in any deployment of troops in Ukraine due to his country's proximity to Russia. He faces re-election at the end of next year, which may become an intense struggle with the right-wing Law and Justice party.

Italy and Spain, on the other hand, pay more attention to domestic economic issues. There is a situation in which no European country yet looks like an obvious candidate for the role of the new political center of the "coalition of the willing." In addition, they do not have the diplomatic influence that Paris and London have.

Therefore, the coalition will be able to maintain its existence only if the British Prime Minister decides to take on the role of leader. However, he is better versed in domestic political issues, and he has virtually no experience in foreign policy. Nevertheless, Burnham assured the allies that they should count on a high degree of continuity regarding Starmer's policy in matters of support for Ukraine and NATO.

Is complete disintegration real

Despite the pessimistic estimates, it is still premature to talk about the collapse of the "coalition of the willing." At the moment, there are a number of factors that will keep it afloat. The main one is that most European countries are still interested in continuing to support Ukraine.

Despite the internal political problems and the change of leaders, the scenario of complete liquidation looks unlikely. Rather, we should expect a gradual decrease in the political significance of the "coalition of the willing."

It can be assumed that the association will remain as a platform for consultations, but it will cease to be a source of major strategic initiatives.

However, the "coalition of the willing" may lose its role if several factors coincide: a further change in the political course of Britain or France; lack of progress in resolving the Ukrainian conflict; growing domestic political problems in European countries; strengthening of Eurosceptic parties opposed to the expansion of military commitments, and a number of other circumstances.