Ceuta vanishes: how a new migration crisis could undermine the EU economy
A new scandal is brewing in the EU: the countries of the union want to deprive each other of Schengen. Italy was the first to take such a step — as the media write with reference to the Interior Ministry of the republic, Rome has already suspended the agreement with respect to Spain. There was talk of a possible suspension of the agreement in Denmark, Finland and Austria. According to various estimates, 50,000 illegal migrants could enter the Spanish exclave of Ceuta from Morocco in a week — a "humanitarian and social emergency situation" has been declared there. At the same time, the government of Pedro Sanchez had already launched a program to legalize up to 500,000 people. According to the Italian authorities, it has worked as a "magnet" and poses the risk of a new wave of migration across Europe. What it will cost the EU economy is in the Izvestia article.
EU countries threaten Spain with suspension of Schengen
The migration crisis has returned to the European agenda. The atmosphere was electrified by the mass infiltration of migrants into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta.
According to various estimates, about 50,000 people crossed the border with Morocco in just one week, from July 24 to July 30. The breakthrough was the largest since 2021. A "humanitarian and social emergency" has been declared in Ceuta, and Madrid has sent military personnel to the city to restore order.
A new wave was provoked by the recent decision of the Spanish Supreme Court, which abolished the practice of expedited return of migrants detained while crossing the border by sea. The fact is that the current legislation allows immediate refusal of entry only to those who try to cross the border, overcoming established border barriers, such as fences.
As Nikolay Topornin, an international lawyer and director of the Center for European Information, explained to Izvestia, this decision was a signal to the Moroccans: if they manage to find themselves in Ceuta, Spanish law enforcement agencies will not be able to immediately deport them back. This is a complex legal procedure that requires judicial confirmation, and in EU legal practice it chronically rests on the protection of individual rights.
Due to migration risks, Madrid is currently negotiating with Rabat on the return of illegal immigrants not as part of the standard deportation procedure, but by direct intergovernmental agreement - then the police will be able to transfer detainees to Moroccan law enforcement officers without a lengthy trial.
Another factor was the large-scale legalization program: on April 14, Pedro Sanchez's office launched the procedure for granting status to 500,000 illegal immigrants. Their total number in Spain, according to the estimates of the Funcas analytical center, is approaching 840 thousand people.
All this gave a number of European countries a reason to protest. On July 31, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said that "uncontrolled illegal immigration poses a specific threat to the security of Europe's borders," and Italy is ready to resort to "extraordinary measures", including the suspension of Schengen. According to media reports, which refer to the Interior Ministry of the republic, the authorities have already ordered the closure of the sea and air borders with Spain. Following Meloni, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen proposed to raise the issue of suspending Spain's membership in the Schengen area in the European Union. The actions of Madrid were also criticized by Finnish Foreign Minister Mari Rantanen. Austrian Chancellor Christian Stoecker also did not rule out the suspension of the agreement. France has deployed military personnel, planes and drones on the border with Spain.
As Pavel Seleznev, dean of the Faculty of International Economic Relations at the Financial University, noted in a conversation with Izvestia, the EU countries that are raising the issue of suspending Schengen today are acting rather late: the migration crisis is the result of the bloc's long—term policy, and Spain has simply become the focus of attention.
However, according to Nikolai Topornin, the real closure of the border is not worth waiting for. According to the expert, the measures taken by the EU countries should be considered primarily as a political and psychological signal to Madrid — to push the socialist government of Pedro Sanchez to take tougher actions against migrants. For his part, the prime minister called the migration crisis in Ceuta an attack and a violation of Spain's territorial sovereignty. Meanwhile, he personally arrived in the autonomous city, where, judging by the footage, he was immediately booed by the locals. And the right-wing Spanish party even demanded the resignation of the head of government.
How will the crisis affect EU revenues
Italy is far from the first EU country to question free movement. Germany, Denmark, Austria, France and Norway already support border control in various formats. Formally, these restrictions should be reviewed every six months, but in practice they are extended automatically. As Nikolai Topornin recalled, Belgium, Hungary, and Croatia have introduced similar measures over the years, usually at times of peak migration flows. At the same time, Italy and Greece traditionally bear the greatest burden in the bloc, as the so—called countries of first entry under the Dublin Regulation, which obliges the first country of arrival to consider an application for refugee status. That is why Rome has been seeking for years to redistribute responsibility between EU members, but Eastern European countries have effectively blocked this idea.
Portugal, Spain's immediate neighbor, is watching what is happening with concern. But outwardly, the tension in the country is not noticeable.
"The situation in the Spanish exclaves in North Africa is not being felt in Portugal," Alexei Chekmarev, press attache at the Russian Embassy in Lisbon, told Izvestia. — The media community assesses the situation in a purely informational manner, refraining from analytical conclusions and alarmist sentiments.
So far, the migration crisis remains focal and localized on the Spanish-Moroccan border, rather than spread across the entire southern facade of the EU.
The economic consequences of the expansion of border restrictions may be significant. According to estimates by the European Parliament, the losses of the eurozone even from point—to-point border control amount to tens of billions of euros per year due to a slowdown in cargo transportation, additional logistics costs and a decrease in cross-border trade. Tourism may suffer a separate blow: Spain and Italy are among the largest EU tourism markets, and even short-term border checks can bring down the peak of the summer season, which accounts for the main turnover of the industry.
In addition, if the Moroccans eventually reach continental Europe, the vast majority of new illegal immigrants will rely not on skilled work, but on social benefits and benefits for the period of job search, whereas the real vacancies for them are mainly rough and low—paid work, Pavel Seleznev explained. In this scenario, the expert added, the burden falls primarily on the budgets of the receiving countries.
However, no migration catastrophe is expected yet. More and more illegal immigrants who reached Ceuta began to demand their voluntary return to Morocco due to the difficult conditions and the huge crowd of people. More than 25 thousand . We have already returned to Morocco, writes El Mundo. The Moroccans who remain in the exclave without legal status have few chances to reach mainland Europe. Madrid, apparently, will reach an agreement with Rabat on their return in the near future, especially since for Morocco this is also a violation of its own state border.
Nevertheless, the process of suspending the Schengen agreement with one of the key states of the union shows to what extent the migration issue has become a dividing line in the EU. Previously, such measures were taken pointwise and, as a rule, against the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean or the Balkans. Now we are talking about one of the largest states in the bloc.
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