A sore point: almost half of the companies have purchased fuel for future use
Queues at gas stations are decreasing, but businesses are still preparing for possible disruptions. Almost half of the companies buy fuel for future use, Izvestia found out. In a number of regions, the situation has not fully returned to normal: the delivery of orders has slowed down, and transportation costs on problematic routes have increased by 20%. A third of entrepreneurs have already transferred costs to prices. Some create their own storage facilities and look for suppliers abroad, while others rebuild routes and control consumption more tightly. Where the shortage persists and when gasoline will become cheaper — in the Izvestia article.
How does business react to fuel shortages
The situation on the fuel market is gradually stabilizing: in most cities and regions, queues at gas stations have decreased or disappeared. But the interruptions persist. Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported on difficulties in the Altai Territory, Yakutia, Transbaikalia and Irkutsk region.
The problems are still typical for many regions of Siberia, certain regions of the Far East and the south of the country - Crimea and some republics of the North Caucasus, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. At the same time, according to her, the premium in the cost of gasoline remains high — about 20-40%.
By the end of July, transport downtime in queues had decreased by 20-30% compared to the middle of the month, said Vadim Filatov, chairman of the Delovaya Rossiya Committee on Transport Logistics, co-owner and deputy director of the PEC. However, difficulties remain in the Crimea, Novosibirsk Region and Krasnoyarsk Territory. Drivers spend several hours more per week refueling than usual, which increases mileage and reduces transportation efficiency.
Companies include in their tariffs not only the rise in price of gasoline and diesel, but also the risks of their shortage, said Sergey Katyrin, head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation. Cars stand idle in queues, deviate from routes in search of working gas stations, delivery times are disrupted, and the number of flights per shift is reduced. As a result, the cost increases and the turnover of the fleet slows down. According to the CCI, logistics in problematic areas could rise in price by up to 20%. This is most acutely felt in the south and where there are no other delivery methods.
Izvestia was also informed about the difficulties in one of the largest metallurgical companies. There are periodic shortages of diesel and gasoline, and refinery repairs further reduce the supply. To ensure production, the company is looking for new suppliers, from Belarus to Malaysia, creating hubs and renting oil depots.
The Fix Price press service reported on local difficulties for logistics partners and point-by-point changes in schedules and routes, but stressed that goods arrive smoothly. Some contractors offered to review the cost of services, but the company called such negotiations a common practice and stated that it was trying to keep prices affordable. Magnit noted that the market situation did not affect the supply of outlets and the operation of the network.
Nevertheless, a significant part of the business still felt the consequences. In a July survey of accounting for business, Moy Delo, one of the largest financial consulting companies, 42% of respondents among 2,000 entrepreneurs (Izvestia has it) reported that they buy fuel in advance to ensure the smooth operation of transport. In fact, almost every second company creates a reserve in case of new disruptions, despite the fact that the market is calming down. The vast majority of the study participants also noted an increase in order fulfillment and delivery times. This was reflected in prices: 70% of the respondents had costs increased to 20%, while 27% had much higher costs.
The creation of stocks is a natural reaction to the shortage of any product, says Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finama Financial Group. According to him, such demand can be contained only by limiting the volume of sales in one hand. The excitement was increased by limits at retail gas stations and fears of a repeat of disruptions, Vadim Filatov added.
However, wholesale is not beneficial for everyone. Avto-PEC, which is part of the PEC holding, does not create reserves, since exchange and retail rates are almost equal, the entrepreneur said. As of July 28, diesel was worth almost 80 rubles per liter on the stock exchange. It was sold at Moscow gas stations for 76.5–81 rubles, in St. Petersburg - for 79.5—80.5 rubles. Instead of accumulating, the company controls fuel consumption and automates routes, which saves an average of 1-3% of costs annually.
Businesses are trying to keep costs down: companies are combining orders, changing schedules, and rebuilding routes, according to a study by My Business. But it is not possible to fully compensate for the increase in costs. A third of the respondents have already transferred additional costs to prices, and another 38% plan to do so in the near future.
Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Energy.
Which companies felt the fuel shortage more strongly
The shortage of fuel has hit logistics and transportation the hardest, where fuel accounts for up to 40% of expenses, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global. The disruptions also affected the railways, as many locomotives run on diesel. According to the expert, cargo carriers even asked the government to provide them with resources as a matter of priority. Stopping the delivery may lead to shortages of raw materials and consumer goods.
Agriculture and construction are also experiencing difficulties, where machinery is mainly powered by diesel. For trade, farmers, builders, and food industries, this means not only increased transportation costs, but also losses due to delayed deliveries, equipment downtime, and storage disruptions, explained Sergey Katyrin from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
There are difficulties in the car market as well: the demand for cars with internal combustion engines, especially new ones, has decreased, Natalia Milchakova said. At the same time, interest in gas cylinder equipment and electric vehicles has grown in some regions. According to the analyst, Chinese manufacturers of electric cars have benefited from this, while the Russian car industry has found itself in a less advantageous position.
What will happen to gasoline prices next
So far, the fuel situation has affected the economy primarily through accelerating inflation, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global. According to her, in June, when the situation was most acute, the annual rate increased from 5.3% to 6.02%. During the month, prices rose by almost 1%, and in the first two weeks of July they increased by about 0.2%. The slowdown began only towards the end of the month.
Additional pressure on prices is created by companies that buy fuel for future use, experts warn. Massive inventory creation temporarily increases demand in an already scarce market and allows suppliers to maintain high wholesale prices for longer. As a result, this may slow down the decline in inflation: the rise in price of gasoline and diesel first increases the costs of carriers, and then passes into the cost of delivery and goods.
The growth of transport and logistics costs is translated into price dynamics non-linearly and not in full, the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development told the editorial board. As the situation stabilizes and necessary measures are taken, this factor will come to naught, they added.
The acceleration of inflation limits the Central Bank's ability to reduce the key rate, Natalia Milchakova noted. Although the regulator lowered the rate by 0.25 percentage points on July 24, its trajectory for 2026 has become higher and now suggests a slower easing. In this regard, Freedom Global expects GDP growth of 0.5–1%, and retail trade growth of only 2-3% by the end of the year due to weak consumer demand.
At the same time, emergency measures — the expansion of imports, the ban on the export of important petroleum products and the permission to produce fuel of a lower ecological class — helped to avoid a shortage of goods in stores, Natalia Milchakova emphasized. According to her forecast, stabilization will take up to three months, so the impact of the situation on the economy will weaken in the fall. Gasoline may rise in price by 25-30% by the end of 2026, and the expert does not expect a price reduction until next year. An additional measure could be the abolition of excise taxes, which would reduce the costs of producers, she believes.
For full normalization, it is necessary to restore recycling. If there are no new damages, the main part of the enterprises can be repaired in a few months, says Sergey Kaufman from Finam. In a positive scenario, this will allow gasoline to fall in price to 10% from current levels, the expert admitted.
Thus, although the situation at the gas station is improving, the business does not yet believe in the sustainability of supplies and continues to purchase fuel for future use. Such demand can keep prices at a high level for longer.
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