The pipe is calling: what are the prospects for energy in the Far East
By 2030, the Far East may face a 2.6 GW shortage of generating capacity amid industrial growth, investment projects, and the deterioration of existing energy infrastructure. Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation — Presidential Plenipotentiary Representative in the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev instructed to develop a unified schedule for the commissioning of new energy capacities, taking into account current and prospective projects in the region. Why the region is struggling with the problem of energy supply and how they are trying to solve it — in the Izvestia article.
System load
By 2030, the shortage of generating capacity in the Far East may amount to 2.6 GW. The main reason is that energy consumption is growing faster than new capacities are available. Over the past five years, the demand for electricity in the region has increased by 21%, while the average for Russia was 12%. Consumption is projected to grow by about 30% more by 2030.
New investment projects are creating an additional burden on the energy system, because the region is actively developing advanced development territories (TOP), building logistics complexes, expanding the Eastern Polygon of Russian Railways and increasing the volume of housing construction.
In addition, the average wear of generating equipment in the Far East already exceeds 60%. Almost 65% of the existing capacities were built back in Soviet times, because of this, many thermal power plants (TPPs) are operating at the limit of their capabilities.
The most difficult situation has developed at coal and gas thermal power plants and GRES in the southern and eastern parts of the United Energy System (UES) of the East. For example, in Primorsky Krai, the Artemovskaya Thermal Power Plant, which has been operating since 1936, is one of the most problematic facilities. The steam turbine equipment of the station has almost completely exhausted its life, however, its operation continues in order to avoid a shortage of electricity.
The outdated Vostochnaya CHPP gas turbine units in Vladivostok also continue to operate: two 93 MW units are operating longer than originally planned. Deep modernization or complete replacement of equipment is also required at Vladivostok TPP-2 and Neryungrinskaya GRES, which still use Soviet-era equipment.
A high level of wear reduces the reliability of the power system, so the number of accidents is increasing, the equipment is not capable of delivering its design capacity, and during peak loads the power system does not always cope with consumption. As a result, energy companies have to impose restrictions on some consumers.
In addition, the average level of gasification in the Far East is about 28%. Several factors are hindering the development of the industry: a lack of gas transportation infrastructure, the risk of fuel shortages for new investment projects, and the lack of a unified gas supply system. Coal and fuel oil are still used in many localities, as gas networks have not yet been connected there.
The situation is also complicated by the huge distances between settlements and the low population density. Because of this, the construction of main gas pipelines requires large investments and takes a long time.
The Russian Ministry of Energy is forming plans for the development of energy and gas supply in the Far East, taking into account the needs of the region, the ministry's press service told Izvestia. The General Scheme until 2042 includes, in particular, the construction of the Nizhne-Zeiskaya HPP with a capacity of 400 MW. Gazprom PJSC is implementing gas infrastructure development projects, including the Eastern Gas Supply System, as well as the district's gasification program until 2036.
The development of networks and an agreed plan for the commissioning of energy capacities will help provide new projects with energy, reduce business costs, improve the living conditions of the population and increase the reliability of energy supply, the press service of the Ministry of the Far East told Izvestia. The main obstacles are the high cost of construction, complex logistics, and harsh climate. The program's goal is to increase the gasification level of the Far Eastern Federal District to 50% by 2030 and 60% by 2036.
Future plans
The Ministry of Energy should form a clear action plan for the next 1.5–2 years, which will ensure energy supply to key investment projects in the region. Trutnev also instructed the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Regional Development and the Ministry of Economic Development to prepare for the government an agreed draft report to the President of the Russian Federation on accelerating gasification of the Far East.
Another meeting will be held in the near future. Its participants will evaluate how orders are executed and tasks are performed.
It is expected that a single schedule should synchronize all stages of energy and industrial development, because the document must be linked to the construction of power plants, substations, transmission lines, gas pipelines, financing schemes and deadlines for the implementation of investment projects. This will avoid a situation where ready-made enterprises are left without power supply, and new capacities are unclaimed.
For existing and under construction enterprises, this will reduce the risks of restrictions on energy supply, eliminate downtime due to unavailability of networks, and help distribute financing and subsidies more efficiently, including the Far Eastern surcharge.
Meanwhile, for future investments, a clear schedule will give companies an understanding of the timing of the connection and the available capacity. The creation of an energy reserve will increase the attractiveness of the Far East, strengthen investor confidence and provide a resource base for new projects. In 10 years, the volume of investments in projects that have received government support has already reached more than 6.5 trillion rubles. By 2030, it is planned to increase the total volume of investments to 12 trillion rubles.
The development of the region requires the simultaneous construction of generation, power grids, gas infrastructure and new enterprises, Andrey Poltarykhin, Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Innovation and Industrial Policy at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, told Izvestia. Over the past 10 years, electricity consumption in the Far East has increased by 26%, which is twice the average Russian rate.
About 500 investment projects with a total demand of almost 8 GW have been announced in the region, of which 138 projects with a load of 2.7 GW by 2030 have already been confirmed by the Ministry of the Far East Development of Russia and the Far Eastern Partnership. At the same time, the construction of an enterprise takes 2-3 years, a power plant takes 4-7 years, and the creation of a gas and grid infrastructure often requires even more time.
The main difficulties of the Far Eastern Federal District include the continuing shortage of qualified personnel and poor transport accessibility, Vladislav Bukharsky, Director of Sovereign and Regional Ratings at Expert RA agency, told Izvestia. The area of the Far Eastern Federal District is about 7 million square kilometers, or more than 40% of the territory of Russia, while only about 8 million people live here, and a significant part of the settlements are remote from the railway network and year-round highways.
The delivery of turbines, transformers, pipes, and other bulky equipment is often only possible by sea, winter roads, or seasonal routes, which increases logistics costs by 20% or more and can delay project deadlines by several months.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Energy, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
