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- Stop the Strait: the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea have created a new threat to the global economy
Stop the Strait: the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea have created a new threat to the global economy
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is fraught with a complete blockade of the Red Sea. Iran, according to American media, is blackmailing the United States with support for the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, which threatens to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the second most important transport corridor in the region. In this case, the supply of not only oil, but also humanitarian aid, food and fertilizers to African countries will be at risk. Russia is calling on the parties to return to negotiations due to new risks to the global economy, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Borisenko told Izvestia. But experts are confident that the conflicts in the Middle East have paused only to resume at some point, as the parties use the time to resume weapons stocks.
Who is threatened by the Houthis' actions
The naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, recently announced by the Yemeni Houthis, risks closing another important logistics corridor in the Middle East — through the Red Sea. The entrance point is the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which, in fact, controls the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement.
Before the crisis, this route accounted for 12-15% of global shipping (more than 22,000 ships per year), including up to 10% of the maritime trade in oil and LNG. Now the volume of container traffic here has dropped by about 80%, Anastasia Gavrilova, an expert in international relations, told Izvestia. According to her, the bypass route through the Cape of Good Hope extends delivery by 10-14 days and increases costs by 30-40% due to fuel costs and additional insurance. As a result, the industry incurs losses, and the food market suffers from the spoilage of perishable goods and inflation, the expert emphasized.
The route is critically important for the delivery of food and humanitarian aid to the Middle East and Africa. In particular, Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia are critically dependent on grain shipments by sea. In this part of the continent, the UN already predicts an increase in hunger from June to November. Jordan, whose only major port, Aqaba, is located on the Red Sea coast, is also experiencing problems. Currently, the country has to use complex overland routes to import goods from Asia, which has led to a sharp rise in the cost of food and essential goods.
In addition, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is the main artery for finished goods, food and raw materials between Asia and Europe. Reducing its use will primarily affect the ports of Italy and Greece (Trieste, Genoa, Piraeus) — they risk losing their status as the main European hubs receiving goods from Asia.
Due to the difficulties with the passage of merchant ships through the strait, Asian exports have already suffered: goods from India are losing competitiveness, and Vietnam, Bangladesh and Thailand are facing a shortage of empty containers, because the one-way route has grown significantly. Against this background, the trucking giants Maersk and MSC have already begun to give priority to China as the largest market.
What is the reason for the blockade of the strait?
The Red Sea boiled over due to the resumption of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Ansar Allah movement in mid-July (it controls a significant part of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, expelling the internationally recognized government of the country from there).
On July 13, government forces attacked the Sanaa airport at the moment when a plane carrying high-ranking Houthis who were returning from Iran from the funeral of Supreme leader Ali Khamenei was about to land there. Ansar Allah accused Saudi Arabia of instigating this strike and, in response, withdrew from the ceasefire with the kingdom, which had been in effect since 2022, and declared a naval blockade against the KSA.
The escalation intensified after Saudi Aramco facilities in the ports of Yanbu and Jizan were attacked. This is the first direct attack on the Saudi oil infrastructure since 2022. Damage to the Yanbu terminal, which provided 92% of the country's offshore crude oil exports in June, is capable of paralyzing supply chains, confirmed Yahya Saria, a spokesman for Ansar Allah.
— The United States will hold Iran responsible, since the Houthis are Iran's proxy force, and, of course, we will seriously punish the Houthis themselves.
Donald Trump blamed these attacks on Iran, which uses the Houthis as a proxy to put pressure on the United States and its allies, and threatened consequences for Tehran.
However, even in the case of a truce between the United States and Iran, the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to stop. Despite American intelligence data on Tehran's control over the group, Ansar Allah positions itself independently, and their long-standing confrontation with Riyadh will not end with the American-Iranian rivalry, says Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The possibility of a truce between Iran and the United States
Meanwhile, the confrontation between the United States and Iran has temporarily subsided. Trump suspended the bombing after 13 nights of continuous attacks, and Tehran responded by mirroring its operations in the Persian Gulf, Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia confirmed. As the US Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, explained, Washington deliberately gives time for diplomacy, but American troops remain in full combat readiness.
In order to avoid new risks to the global economy, Moscow is calling on the parties to settle, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Borisenko told Izvestia.
— The escalation that is being observed in the Middle East as a whole and, in particular, in the Red Sea is fraught with significant damage to world trade and, consequently, to the global economy. That is why Russia is trying to urge all states that are involved in what is happening in one way or another to exercise prudence and think about the need to resolve any disputes at the negotiating table," the diplomat stressed.
The parties are most likely using the current lull as a pause to replenish ammunition stocks before a new round of strikes, so it's premature to talk about a real truce, said HSE expert Georgy Asatryan. According to the analyst, the Pentagon recommended that Donald Trump wage a war of attrition in order to economically weaken Iran and provoke an internal split in its elites.
The purpose of this strategy was to force the republic to make concessions and open the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, Trump was unable to complete the plan due to a lack of military resources, primarily anti-missiles. And the Iranian attacks on American military bases proved to be extremely painful. To avoid unacceptable losses, Washington decided to stop the bombing. In addition, Iran, despite its difficult economic situation, retains a huge margin of safety.
Konstantin Blokhin holds a similar position, noting that the United States is playing a two-phase game. Now they are putting pressure on Iran informationally, creating the illusion of an imminent attack in order to force it to sit down at the negotiating table. If this stage fails, the bombing will resume, because Washington needs a peace agreement that surpasses the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA).
Back in his first term, Trump called this agreement the worst in history by Barack Obama for lifting sanctions in exchange for only a temporary freeze on nuclear centers. Trump will consider signing the agreement on the same terms as a personal defeat, so the new agreements must become tougher: with the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear infrastructure and the cessation of support for the Houthis and Hezbollah.
Tehran has so far flatly refused direct talks with Washington, but the mediators are trying to save the failed June truce agreement. Oman has taken on the most difficult task — to negotiate the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar has traditionally been the main mediator in financial matters. From the very beginning, Pakistan joined the process as a major regional player with a common border with Iran and direct communication channels with Washington. Both sides obviously need a break. Regardless of the real reasons for this lull, international mediators have a temporary window for diplomacy.
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