Peaceful progress: new mediators have brought down the degree of escalation between the United States and Iran

The composition of the mediators in the conflict between the United States and Iran is changing: Iraq is trying to take the place of the Arabian monarchies. Washington's latest truce proposal could have been conveyed through the country's Prime Minister, Ali al-Zeidi. Although Tehran initially rejected it, progress was made in the settlement literally the next day. Trump suddenly stopped the strikes after 13 consecutive days of massive attacks. And Iran and Oman discussed the possibility of opening the Strait of Hormuz. Whether the settlement will resume and who else is able to influence the warring parties is in the Izvestia article.

Iraq is involved in mediation between the United States and Iran

Tehran's relations with the Persian Gulf monarchies are escalating, which means that the usual communication channels through Arab countries are getting worse. Iran continues to strike at American facilities on their territory, and under these conditions it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to remain a neutral platform for mediation. In this situation, Baghdad came to the forefront. In mid-July, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zeidi traveled to Washington for a meeting with Donald Trump, and a week later flew to Tehran. It was through him that the White House, according to media reports, conveyed the latest truce proposal to Iran.

Baghdad's motives are clear. Iraq has traditionally acted as a mediator in Tehran's relations with other states, in particular, it participated in the reconciliation of Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, international journalist Abbas Juma said in a conversation with Izvestia. This is explained by the depth of ties: Iraq and Iran are two Shiite centers united by cultural, religious, political, military and economic ties.

Iraq is critically dependent on Iranian gas, which provides up to 40% of the country's electricity generation, and at the same time on the American financial system. Iraq's oil revenues pass through an account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Baghdad is allowed to purchase Iranian energy resources only through sanctions exemptions periodically extended by Washington. In fact, he cannot refuse any of the parties and becomes, in fact, a forced mediator.

Az-Zeidi took over the government in the spring of 2026, and mediation became one of his first major foreign policy actions. Although such activity was met with hostility in Tehran. Advisor to Iran's Supreme leader Ali Akbar Velayati called the meeting of the Iraqi prime minister with the American president almost immediately after the funeral of former Supreme leader Ali Khamenei a "great shame."

Perhaps this is why Iran allegedly rejected the U.S. truce proposal transmitted through Al-Zeidi on July 24. However, literally the next day, there was a pause in the conflict. At a meeting with Trump, US Vice President Jay dee Vance and the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Kane, expressed concern about the escalation in Iran, CNN sources say. Kane, in particular, was worried about dwindling ammunition supplies. The New York Times confirms that the possible consequences of the Pentagon's shortage of interceptor missiles and other air defense systems in the Middle East have seriously alarmed the head of the White House. As a result, the United States actually suspended the bombing, which lasted 13 days in a row.

At the same time, representatives of Iran and Oman were in contact over the weekend. They discussed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry even hinted at progress. According to CBS, the United States stopped the strikes just in order not to disrupt the "delicate process of diplomacy."

Tehran has made a couple of peaceful statements publicly, though so far against its neighbors in the region. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi assured that Iran intends to restore trusting relations with them after the end of the conflict and is even ready to help reduce tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis. On July 20, the latter imposed a naval blockade against the KSA, having previously announced the termination of the truce in force since 2022.

If Iraq's efforts fail, Turkey may step in to mediate. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally confirmed his interest in peacekeeping at the NATO summit. Ankara has long been a platform for negotiations in major conflicts, including between Russia and Ukraine.

As for the Middle East conflict, it is important to note that Turkey borders Iran, buys its gas, and generally actively trades with Tehran, while remaining Washington's NATO partner. Unlike Iraq, this relationship has not grown into a critical dependence: Iran accounts for about 13% of Turkish gas imports, while the bulk comes from Russia and Azerbaijan, and Ankara has been expanding LNG purchases in recent years. Therefore, the motives here, according to Abbas Juma, lie primarily in the plane of prestige — the role of mediator will strengthen Turkey's position in relations with all parties to the conflict.

Will anyone be able to reconcile the United States and Iran

At the same time, there are no signs of a real rapprochement between the parties yet. The other day, the US Senate, or rather the Republican part of it, again blocked a resolution demanding that Donald Trump stop the operation against the Islamic Republic. In addition, according to the NYT, Tehran rejected Washington's new proposal, as the republic is not satisfied with a temporary deal without resolving the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the dispute over the rights to the strait turned into a war of declarations. The IRGC Navy announced on July 22 that it was monitoring the entry and exit from Hormuz and that ships could only take routes convenient for Tehran. Washington denied this statement: according to the American side, the corridor remains open, commercial vessels continue to pass with the support of the US Armed Forces.

The suspensions of bombing hint that the United States is gradually running out of steam to wage this battle of attrition. Speaking to the Senate Appropriations Committee on July 21, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the campaign against Iran has already cost the Pentagon $37.5 billion. According to media reports, the agency's internal estimates are higher — from $80 to $100 billion. The agency sought additional $87.6 billion from Congress for the 2026 fiscal year. When asked by Republican Senator Mike Rounds if this would be enough "to accomplish the task" in Iran, Dan Kane answered evasively.: "I can't say how much it will cost because it depends on the opponent as well."

Funds will not arrive quickly. The House of Representatives has gone on summer vacation, both chambers will meet only in September. At the same time, the budget deficit is growing: in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, by the end of June, its accumulated volume reached $1.37 trillion — $35 billion more than in the same period a year earlier. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analytical center, if the dynamics continue, the budget deficit may exceed $2 trillion.

However, Egor Lidovskaya, director of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Center, urges not to rush to conclusions. Similar assessments that the United States was exhausted arose before the first truce, but in the end a new round of escalation followed.

Trump was dragged into the war despite his initial policy of non-intervention, and this brought down his rating. Having lost a significant part of the support, the president now relies mainly on the "hawkish" wing, the expert noted. According to Lidovsky, Trump has almost no room for maneuver. He cannot abruptly negotiate without losing his remaining support, but there are not enough resources to prolong the war, let alone a ground operation. Therefore, Lidovskaya considers an attempt to launch a concentrated air strike to be the most likely.

At the same time, Turkey and Iraq do not have their own levers to force the parties to peace, Abbas Juma states. According to him, even the usual intermediaries do not have them: the Arabian monarchies have been investing in Washington for years, including in the campaign of Donald Trump, hoping to influence the decisions of the White House, but they have not received a noticeable effect.

Even if the parties sit down at the negotiating table, it is hardly worth counting on firm agreements. Tehran has too many levers of pressure. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's main tool, which it will continue to use. In such circumstances, any agreements become a priori fragile, and an early and long—term peace in the Middle East is unlikely.