Petrol bug: fuel shortage has accelerated inflation in the regions
Inflation in the regions went up following the rise in price of motor fuel. For example, in Tuva, by June, it had increased in price by 65% over the year, in Sevastopol — by 80%, and in Moscow and St. Petersburg - by about 12.5—13.5%, according to Rosstat data analyzed by Izvestia. Against this background, a subject with double-digit inflation has reappeared in Russia, although there were no such high rates at the beginning of the year. In June, the annual price growth in Tuva reached 12.2%. During the month, it increased by more than 5 percentage points, becoming the highest in the country. At the same time, the lowest inflation was recorded in Ingushetia — 3.88%, although the indicator increased there. What the price increase will be by the end of the year and how it will affect the key rate is in the Izvestia article.
How prices rose in the regions in June 2026
In June 2026, the largest annual price increase in the country was in Tuva - almost 12.2%, according to Rosstat data. Although a month ago the figure was 7.13%. The minimum inflation rate in Russia was recorded in Ingushetia — 3.88%. Since May, it has also grown, but significantly less — by 0.5 percentage points.
Even at the beginning of the year, not a single Russian region showed double-digit inflation. However, by the summer, price growth accelerated again. One of the main reasons was the shortage of fuel, which led to an increase in the price of gasoline and diesel in a number of regions.
As noted in the "Summary of the key rate discussion", which the Central Bank published back in early July, the rise in fuel prices directly affects inflation, since it is included in the consumer basket. In addition, rising prices for gasoline and diesel can also be transferred to the cost of other goods and services through transportation and production costs. In other words, this increased business expenses, and then affected the cost of most consumer goods, explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global.
According to Rosstat, which was studied by Izvestia, motor fuel prices rose sharply in June in a number of regions. In Sevastopol, the annual growth was almost 80%, in Tuva — more than 65%. In Kamchatka, its prices increased by 18.5%, and in Moscow and St. Petersburg - by about 12.5–13.5%.
Another factor was the rise in the cost of services. Prices and tariffs for postal and mobile communication services increased in June, Natalia Milchakova continued. In addition, the weakening of the ruble, which began in the same month, contributed to an increase in the cost of a number of imported goods, on which Russia still depends. According to the regulator, the national currency sank by almost 10% in June to 77.75 rubles per dollar.
Against the background of these factors, price increases above the national average (6.02%) were recorded in 49 regions of the country. Sevastopol (8.8%), Kamchatka (8.45%), Samara (8.44%) and Kostroma (7.87%) regions also entered the top 5 in terms of inflation in June.
At the same time, the price growth rates in 36 regions of the Russian Federation were below the national average. The indicator close to the target of the Central Bank was recorded in Omsk (4.31%), Arkhangelsk (4.7%) and Volgograd (4.75%) regions, as well as in the Altai Republic (4.63%).
Izvestia sent inquiries to the regions about which goods had risen in price the most. The regional tariff and price service of the Kamchatka Territory stated that prices increased more actively for soft drinks (+18.2%), electrical goods (+14.6%), fish products (+13.6%) and motor fuel (+13.8%). The cost of public transport has also increased by more than 18%. The press service of the governor and the government of the Kaluga region clarified that in January - June of this year, jewelry, sugar and coffee rose the most.
Why does inflation vary in regions?
The difference in the inflation rate between regions is related both to the different dynamics of prices for individual goods and services, and to the peculiarities of consumer spending in each region, Rosstat told Izvestia.
In the regions of the Russian Federation, where residents spend most of their income on food and fuel, and logistics remains more complex and expensive, any increase in the price of basic goods is felt more strongly, said Alina Poptsova, stock market analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company.
In addition to the cost structure, the price dynamics are also influenced by the specifics of regional markets. Additional factors contributing to inflation in some regions were the small volume of local markets and weak competition, said financial expert Olga Gogaladze. According to her, if one or two large suppliers control the market in the region, it is easier for them to shift the growing costs to customers. In addition, in a number of subjects of the Russian Federation, household incomes are increasing faster than the supply of goods and services. As a result, increased demand with limited business opportunities leads to an even greater acceleration of inflation.
The editorial board asked the Ministry of Energy and the Central Bank for comments.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that it is impossible to completely eliminate the gap in inflation between regions. The price spread will remain due to objective factors such as geography, the structure of the economy and the level of income of the population, Alina Poptsova noted.
However, despite the existence of such differences, it is still possible to reduce this gap. Monetary policy alone is not enough for this, the expert believes. Structural measures are also needed: the development of transport, reduction of logistical costs for remote territories — Siberia, the Far East and parts of the North Caucasus regions, support for local retail chains and food producers in order to reduce dependence on imported goods. In addition, Alina Poptsova continued, targeted assistance to families in regions where spending on essential goods occupies a significant part of the spouses' budget is important.
Olga Gogaladze believes that increased competition may be another tool to reduce the inflationary gap. According to her, the expansion of the presence of federal and large regional retail chains in small regions of the Russian Federation will reduce the influence of local monopolists on pricing and limit excessive trade margins.
What will be the price increase in 2026
At a meeting of the board of directors on Friday, July 24, the Central Bank is likely to leave the key rate unchanged at 14.25%, Izvestia previously reported. The regulator's decision will be influenced by both the rapid rise in prices for goods and services in June and the inflation expectations of citizens. According to the inFOM survey, the figure jumped to 14.7% in July from 12.4% in June, the highest since spring 2022.
The growth of inflation expectations remains one of the important factors for the Bank of Russia. When people are waiting for a further increase in prices, they start buying goods for future use, thereby provoking an additional increase in the cost of products, said economist Olga Gogaladze.
The Central Bank's inflation forecast for the end of the year still looks optimistic. The regulator expects that the price increase in the Russian Federation will be 4.5–5.5%, however, experts admit its revision by the Bank of Russia on July 24. Analysts predict a price increase of 6-7%.
At the same time, their final dynamics will depend on several factors, both internal and external. When forecasting, it is necessary to take into account the consequences of the situation on the raw materials market and the weakening of the ruble, Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global reminded. Tighter monetary policy and reduced government spending may slow down inflation.
Experts pay special attention to the situation on the fuel market. It is important to eliminate the main reason for the current price increase — problems with the supply of gasoline and diesel, says Alina Poptsova. To do this, it is necessary to restore supply volumes: complete repairs at refineries, increase their utilization and support the domestic market.
Thus, it is the situation on the fuel market that will become one of the key factors for price dynamics in the coming months. After the supply is restored, its influence will gradually decrease.
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