Excessive price: the 21st package may become the last major block of EU sanctions

The EU is about to abandon the practice of approving large-scale sanctions packages, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia. The potential for new sectoral restrictions has been exhausted in Brussels. In addition, discontent is growing within the association: six states are making claims against the 21st package at once. Therefore, it has been discussed for the second month, and the union's ambassadors will not go on vacation until the restrictions are agreed, another source said. At the same time, the most ardent opponents will continue to seek to sever the remaining economic ties between the EU and the Russian Federation. Brussels does not demonstrate its willingness to negotiate with Moscow.

The European Union is changing its tactics of pressure on Russia

The approval of the 21st sanctions package has reached an impasse, and the scale of opposition to new restrictions has become unprecedented. According to the Financial Times, at least six EU countries — Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal and France — are blocking certain measures or demanding exceptions. The EU is even allegedly discussing a scenario of a complete or partial withdrawal of the proposed restrictions.

Against this background, the European Union is considering the possibility of refusing to approve major sanctions packages against Russia, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia. In this case, the 21st list may become the last classic set of anti-Russian restrictions.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Eduard Kornienko

"Adding specific individuals and legal entities and courts to the current sanctions lists is technically much faster and causes less controversy than large packages of sanctions," said another source familiar with the discussions.

Thierry Mariani, a member of the European Parliament from France, confirmed to Izvestia that Brussels' next steps "will be much smaller in scale and will include replenishing blacklists, tightening sanctions enforcement and other minor changes, but "not another large-scale package."

Reach a disagreement: Several EU countries are blocking the 21st package of sanctions.

Due to a number of controversial points, it will not be accepted until the fall, experts say.

— They will call it "smarter sanctions". In fact, this is a recognition that the previous approach has failed and is nearing completion," Mariani said.

Izvestia also sent a request to the European Commission.

According to her official data, about 930 legal entities from Russia are currently under sanctions, 80 of them financial organizations. 632 vessels have also been blacklisted, which Brussels suspects of transporting Russian resources. The 21st package, according to Reuters, provides for restrictive measures against another 215 individuals and 94 legal entities from the Russian Federation.

Photo: Global Look Press/Serg Glovny

The potential for imposing sectoral sanctions against Russia has largely been exhausted, so Brussels has no choice but to focus on expanding secondary restrictions and combating circumvention of restrictions, Ekaterina Arapova, head of the MGIMO research program at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. At the same time, the European Commission most likely will not be able to abandon the previous wording "package", fearing reputational costs, the expert notes.

Politically, the split within the EU is deepening between the coalition of states of Northern, Eastern and partly Central Europe, which seek to cause maximum damage to the Russian economy, and a number of southern states, which fear a weakening of the entire economy of the bloc. According to German political analyst Alexander Rahr, Brussels will look for legal loopholes to circumvent the right of veto in order to approve new restrictions.

The European Commission already resorted to such methods last year, when it secured approval of a plan to phase out Russian energy sources from 2027. To circumvent the vetoes of Hungary and Slovakia, Brussels framed this decision not as sanctions against Russia, but as domestic economic legislation. Bratislava and Budapest are trying to challenge this decision in the EU court.

Tight deadlines: EU pushes through opponents of sanctions against Russia

Will Brussels have time to approve the new package before the fall and what might be included in it?

What is confusing the Europeans about the 21st package of sanctions

The discussion of the 21st package has been going on for the second month. The previous, 20th list of anti-Russian restrictions was adopted instead of February 24 only at the end of April, although in practice it usually takes about a month to resolve contradictions. European officials are already going on vacation in August, but this year everyone will remain at their jobs until the package is agreed upon, a European source told Izvestia. Permanent representatives of the EU countries will continue to meet for this purpose. If the ambassadors agree, the foreign ministers of the European countries will approve the package through a written procedure without an in-person meeting.

Photo: Global Look Press/Alicia Windzio

To step up negotiations, the European Commission will present to the ambassadors of the EU countries an assessment of the impact of the planned sanctions on the national economies of the bloc states. The main purpose of this presentation is to convince Greece that the proposed ban on the transportation of Russian LNG to third countries will not significantly affect its economy. Greek companies own about 20% of the global merchant marine fleet.

Another issue that has divided the EU countries is the ban on the import of certain types of fish from the Russian Federation. Portugal and Germany are opposed, citing the need to support the local processing industry. The issue of Russian fish has clearly shown that the EC seeks to sever any economic ties with Russia, without taking into account the damage to European countries. The head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, confessed: "When I came to this job, I didn't know that fish had such a geopolitical significance. Fish complicates many important geopolitical processes."

Zero readiness: Moscow sees no desire on the part of the EU to start a dialogue

Amid claims of negotiations, the West is preparing a new package of sanctions against Russia

Brussels is also unable to push through a complete ban on entry to the EU for its participants: according to media reports, France and Italy remain dissatisfied with its wording. Austria insists on unblocking about €2 billion of Russian assets to compensate for the fine imposed in Russia on Raiffeisen Bank. At first glance, this soft position of these countries may be related to Moscow's retaliatory measures: Russia has begun to move towards a much tougher retention of foreign capital inside the country and the legal formalization of compensation mechanisms for Russian sanctioned businesses, Ekaterina Arapova emphasized. As previously stated to Izvestia by the Russian Foreign Ministry, the total direct losses of the EU from anti-Russian restrictions ranged from €1.5 trillion to €2 trillion.

Photo: Global Look Press/Karl-Josef Hildenbrand

Since 2022, the EU has already adopted 20 packages of anti-Russian sanctions, which has led to the collapse of economic ties. Due to the efforts of the European Commission, Russia may not be included in the top 20 trading partners of the association this year. However, the European Union has not achieved its main goal of changing Moscow's policy. This outcome, as well as the growing opposition within the bloc itself, would seem to prompt Brussels to reconsider its policy course. However, this scenario is unlikely before a change in the composition of the European Commission and the political leadership of the largest countries in Western Europe.