Shock-free deadline: The United States and Iran may enter into negotiations
There is a pause in the new large-scale escalation between the United States and Iran. Tehran has received cease-fire proposals from the mediators. According to media reports, we are talking about a 10-day truce, during which the parties should discuss a return to the terms of the June memorandum. However, experts do not expect a fundamentally new format of dialogue: the most difficult issues, such as the nuclear program, will again be put out of the brackets. Meanwhile, Washington has been attacking Iranian territory for at least nine nights in a row, and Tehran is responding with attacks on American facilities in the region. Whether the parties are able to stop and where a new round of negotiations can begin is in the Izvestia article.
Are negotiations between the United States and Iran possible
While Washington and Tehran are exchanging blows on a daily basis, hope for a settlement of the conflict or at least for a diplomatic pause has flickered again. In any case, it became known that the intermediaries began to propose specific initiatives.
"There are proposals [for a cease—fire], we have received them," said Ismail Bagai, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic.
According to media reports, the proposal of the intermediary countries suggests a 10-day ceasefire, during which time the parties should discuss options for restoring the June memorandum. Previously, the parties had even publicly annulled it, not actually. For example, the deputy head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Kazem Gharibabadi, said that the republic had stopped fulfilling its obligations under the June memorandum and was focusing "on protecting the country."
Thus, the document signed in mid-June gave the parties 60 days to agree on final agreements, but lasted less than the specified period. Instead, a new agreement is possible, which includes a mutual rejection of aggressive actions, Al Hadath TV channel reported. Although the implementation of the "old" points of the memorandum can also be prescribed.
And, accordingly, there is currently no direct communication channel between the United States and Iran. Several countries, including Russia, offer their services to help resolve the conflict. The main mediator, Pakistan, is calling for a return to the terms of the June memorandum, while no new round of negotiations in Islamabad has been announced.
Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that both sides are now interested in a cease-fire: it is important for Trump to declare victory by the beginning of the November elections. And physically, it becomes more difficult to continue fighting. According to CNN, citing a Pentagon official, the arsenals of the US Armed Forces have not yet been restored, and the agency is actively looking for innovations to boost production.
Iran is facing severe economic consequences. The split among the elites and the population about the war and the future of the country as a whole does not contribute to the continuation of hostilities, Sazhin notes. Some in the government structures advocate negotiations with the Americans and acceptable compromises. According to international political scientist Elena Suponina, Iran is aware that it is playing with fire, so in the near future, Tehran may well agree to negotiations. If the process does resume, both experts believe, the parties will most likely return to the previous logic of negotiations: the most difficult topics, including the Iranian nuclear program, will fade into the background, and the issue of opening the Strait of Hormuz and the safe passage of merchant ships will become a priority.
What is happening in the Middle East right now
There is less time left, and the scale of the damage is growing. As of July 20, the United States had been attacking Iran for nine consecutive nights. CENTCOM said the attacks were intended to "undermine Iran's military capabilities used to attack merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz." In response, Tehran continues to bomb American facilities in the region. Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are under constant attack.
On the night of July 18, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked several targets at once. The most powerful strike was on the Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan. According to the Pentagon, two American soldiers were killed, one was missing — his death was later confirmed, and several more were evacuated for medical treatment. According to The New York Times, a total of 17 US military personnel have been killed and more than 430 injured since the beginning of the war.
At the same time, the actual losses can be much higher. The NYT, citing sources familiar with the situation, reports that over the past week alone, dozens of US troops were injured and several helicopters were damaged as a result of Iranian strikes on American bases in Jordan. The Pentagon did not disclose this information. CENTCOM retorted that they were not required to publish data on the wounded, especially if military personnel returned to service quickly. In their opinion, such publicity can help Tehran assess the effectiveness of its strikes and adjust its tactics. In total, more than 50,000 American troops are currently deployed in the Middle East.
In addition to the Gulf states, other Arab States, including Iraq and Syria, are under fire. At least eight members of an anti-Iranian opposition group based in the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan have been killed in a single strike on its headquarters, according to media reports. Also, for the first time since the beginning of the current round of the conflict, Iran attacked an American command post in Syria. According to the IRGC, it was possible to destroy the radar station, and "a large number" of the American military were killed.
Due to the new escalation, the State Department warned American citizens abroad that US-related facilities could become the target of Iranian attacks in any country in the world. According to The Washington Post, after the death of another American serviceman in Iraq, Washington and Tehran came close to a full-scale war. Iran threatened that if the strikes continued, the United States would receive "unforgettable lessons."
Meanwhile, there is no progress in the Strait of Hormuz — Iran blocked it on July 12, and the United States responded by resuming the naval blockade of its ports. Despite the ongoing swings, the markets are still reacting nervously. The price of Brent crude oil has increased by almost 16% over the past week, according to media reports.
Even if the parties do return to the negotiating table, the sustainability of potential compromises is highly questionable. The contradictions between Trump and the IRGC are too great to expect a quick and lasting result. But at least the first subject of civilized "bargaining" will, of course, be the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, while more fundamental issues risk remaining unresolved for years.
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