Playing with fire: The US wants to expand its military operation against Iran

After the death of the American military in Jordan, Washington is going to expand its military operation against Iran, striking Tabriz and the port infrastructure. However, resources are running out — the United States is running out of air defense systems and long-range ammunition, and the transfer of troops is limited by combat damage. Trump is teetering on the edge: the expansion of the conflict threatens to result in rising gasoline prices and the loss of Congress in the November elections. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Big plans

The United States plans to expand its military operation against Iran after the death of American soldiers in Jordan as a result of Tehran's strikes. This is reported by The Washington Post, citing an official familiar with the situation. He claims that the Pentagon is increasing the number of military aircraft in the Middle East region. At the same time, another newspaper source points to problems in the dwindling stocks of air defense systems and long-range ammunition. Also, according to him, due to combat damage, the possibility of transferring aircraft and troops to the region is limited: "We do not have enough resources to safely maintain operations, and I do not think the White House knows about this."

The publication notes that after the resumption of mutual strikes between Washington and Tehran, at least three American servicemen were killed. On Saturday, Iran struck US facilities in Jordan, killing two Americans and leaving another missing.

Repeating the past

On the night of July 20, the Central Command of the US Armed Forces in the Middle East announced that the country's armed forces had launched their ninth consecutive series of strikes. It is noted that this is being done to "weaken the Iranian military capabilities, which are being used to attack merchant ships and civilian sailors passing through the Strait of Hormuz."

Currently, the US armed forces have begun strikes on the Iranian city of Tabriz, located in the north-west of the country. Local TV channels reported on the explosions in the ports of Mahshahr and Imam Khomeini in Khuzestan province, as well as in areas of the city of Sirik.

Since the beginning of the joint military operation of the United States and Israel against Iran, Tehran has been attacking Middle Eastern states on whose territory American military facilities are located. Kuwait is one of these countries.

On July 15, Iran reported drone strikes against an American logistics center and an airbase in Kuwait as part of Operation Thunderbolt. The targets were the Patriot radar station and the aerial surveillance radar at the Ali al-Salem airbase, as well as ammunition depots at the Al-Adiri camp, which is located 100 km away. It is located from the Iranian border and is used by Washington as a logistics hub.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the destruction of the main training and support center for the US Army in the port of Mina Abdullah in Kuwait.

The General Staff of the Kuwaiti army reported on the repulse of drone attacks by air defense forces. The Iranian Mehr news agency believes that the movement of American forces in the region may be complicated due to the disruption of the operation of this airbase.

According to the Associated Press, the total number of U.S. military deaths in the conflict with Iran has reached 17. At the same time, the total number of American soldiers injured during the fighting against the Islamic Republic exceeded 400.

Big risks

Earlier, The Wall Street Journal newspaper, citing a source, reported that US President Donald Trump is increasingly inclined to expand military operations against Iran and even to send ground troops to capture the islands of Kharq, Abu Musa, Bolshoy and Maly Tomb, which are of interest to Washington for two reasons: because of control over global supplies. oil as a lever of pressure on Iran, as well as because of their strategic position at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. They can control all shipping in the Strait, place radars, air defense systems and missile systems there.

In addition, the bombing of the tunnel complex on Mount Pickax using heavy bunker bombs to prevent the creation of a functioning nuclear facility there is being discussed. Expanded airstrikes against Iran's energy facilities are also being considered in response to the breakdown of recent peace agreements and ongoing attacks on merchant ships.

The Wall Street Journal journalists believe that in the event of an expanded military operation against Iran, the United States "will face the most dangerous phase of the conflict and will be even more deeply drawn into the Middle East conflict," which will lead to higher gasoline prices and turn the electorate away from the Republican Party in the November congressional elections.

Horizontal escalation

Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, believes that a full-scale war in the region between Iran and the United States is now extremely unlikely.

— After all, none of the players seeks to escalate the situation vertically. All the existing escalation is taking place horizontally: in the use of new forces, increased strikes, but without moving to a qualitatively different level of hostilities, for example, with massive strikes on residential areas," the expert explained.

He also stressed that most of the Iranian military installations are located in mountainous areas, where there are very good and deep bunkers.

— Even the American bunker buster bombs don't always take them. We are talking about horizontal escalation, the involvement of new players, the expansion of the theater of operations and its transfer to a greater extent to the territory of Arab states, and the creation of new threats to the Gulf monarchy," the political scientist said.

The orientalist did not rule out that the conflict would continue, but noted that it was unlikely to intensify or move to a qualitatively different level of war.

— But I'm pretty sure that in general everything will be limited to loud statements from the Trump administration. I see no reason to start a full-scale war with ground operations, and without it the Americans will not be able to achieve anything. Any land landing will turn into a repeat of the Bay of Pigs landing in Cuba, because the Iranians will defend their land to the last drop of their blood, the analyst is sure.

At the same time, the source drew attention to the fact that the Iranians, just like the Americans, can escalate attacks. Iran, cornered, may start hitting energy facilities, hydraulic structures, including desalination plants, as well as refineries.

— And here no superiority in the air or artillery will help, because Iran has a lot of drones and missiles. The IRGC is actively demonstrating the seriousness of its intentions. The fact that the Pentagon still cannot draw the right conclusions is the problem of the Americans and their analytical units," Krylov explained.

In his opinion, the Americans cannot abandon the conflict because it carries serious reputational risks, and Iran also cannot accept Trump's ultimatum negotiating strategy.

— That's why we just got another protracted conflict in the Middle East. I assume that it will end when Trump leaves the presidency," the political scientist summed up.