Forbidden move: expansion of NATO's nuclear programs increases the risk of a clash with Russia

The increase in the number of countries involved in NATO's nuclear programs increases the risk of a direct clash between the powers that possess such weapons, Russian Permanent Representative to Geneva Gennady Gatilov told Izvestia. All the countries of the alliance to the west of the Russian Federation and bordering it are ready to host nuclear weapons. Lithuania and Latvia officially intend to host nuclear deterrence forces. Estonia is going to accept dual-use aircraft, and Finland has already lifted restrictions on the import of weapons. According to experts, the expansion of such infrastructure undermines the non-proliferation regime and turns host countries into possible targets. What exactly may appear there is in the Izvestia material.

Risks of a clash with NATO

NATO is gradually involving new European states in the mechanisms of expanded nuclear deterrence, Russian Permanent Representative to Geneva Gennady Gatilov told Izvestia. According to him, for example, Finland and Poland are already de facto participating in joint NATO nuclear missions, providing conventional forces for support operations, and now they can allow the transit and deployment of American and French nuclear weapons on their territory.

— We point out that such irresponsible behavior of NATO members in the nuclear sphere causes irreparable damage to the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. Moreover, it significantly increases strategic risks, including the possibility of a direct clash between nuclear Powers. And this cannot be allowed," said Gennady Gatilov.

Photo: Global Look Press/Senior Airman Zachary Rufus/Keystone Press Agency

On July 15, Lithuania and Latvia officially announced that they intend to deploy nuclear deterrence forces. To do this, Vilnius needs to exclude from the constitution the ban on the deployment of weapons of mass destruction, which has already been proposed by 50 deputies. Riga does not have such a ban.

Estonia is ready to receive allied aircraft, including F-35A nuclear weapons carriers. Poland is also seeking a more prominent role in NATO's nuclear deterrence.

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Who is ready to host such weapons and how does Russia plan to respond to new threats?

A few weeks ago, Finland lifted the ban on the import, transit and placement of nuclear weapons that had been in force since 1987. This does not mean that it will necessarily appear in the country, but it definitely removes legislative obstacles to this. One way or another, more and more States are seeking to join the nuclear planning mechanism at the level of concrete actions.

Photo: Global Look Press/Us Navy/U.S. Air

At the same time, according to Gennady Gatilov, the deployment of such weapons on the territory of formally non-nuclear states will not increase their security, but will only create additional threats.

How NATO is engaging in its nuclear missions

Currently, all NATO countries are politically under the alliance's nuclear umbrella, but the degree of their participation varies. Some are involved only in consultations and planning, while others provide military infrastructure: airfields, air defense systems, reconnaissance aircraft, tankers and fighter escorts.

A higher level involves training its own aircraft and crews to perform nuclear tasks. The maximum is the deployment of American aerial bombs, which nevertheless remain under US control.

Фото:sandia.gov/Craig Fritz

Accordingly, the first step on the eastern flank may not be the appearance of the ammunition itself, but the deployment of dual-purpose aircraft, primarily the F-35A. These fighters are capable of using both conventional weapons and B61-12 aerial bombs. At the moment, according to open estimates, about 100 are located at six bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.

A place under the "umbrella": Lithuania wants to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory

Experts say there is a risk of uncontrolled escalation

Apart from the United States, only Britain and France have their own nuclear forces in NATO so far. The British deterrence is based on submarines with Trident missiles, the French on submarines and Rafale aircraft. While Washington is questioning the need to single-handedly ensure the entire security of Europe, Emmanuel Macron has proposed a format for "advanced nuclear deterrence" involving the support of French forces.

Photo: Global Look Press/Johan Nilsson /TT

The United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, Denmark and later Norway have already joined the consultations with Paris. Finland also received an invitation.

The danger in this case lies in the gradual expansion of the number of states involved in nuclear operations, said Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security. The countries on whose territory the carriers or ammunition will appear, in the event of a conflict, could theoretically become targets for strikes.

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Why is the infrastructure of Europe's main military hub being upgraded?

Bases in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia host Allied fighter jets.

At the same time, prepared airfields are needed to receive the carriers, and secure storage facilities and American military units are needed to accommodate the B61-12. There is no data on the creation of such facilities on the eastern flank of NATO yet, but Poland has already received the first F-35A based on Lask, and the Svidvin airfield will be another site.

Siauliai bases in Lithuania, Lielvard in Latvia and Emari in Estonia are already receiving Allied fighters. Finnish F-35As are planned to be deployed in Rovaniemi and Rissala. Lielvard is the closest to Moscow, about 800 km away. It is about 890 km from Siauliai and Emari, and about 1,000 km from Rissala. At a speed of 900 km/h, the estimated flight time will be 50-70 minutes.

Фото:sandia.gov/Craig Fritz

Exercises involving dual-use aircraft are also taking place near the Russian borders. In April 2025, France deployed six Rafales from the strategic air forces to Sweden and Poland, and in the spring of 2026, the aircraft were involved in exercises in Lithuania.

By themselves, such maneuvers involving nuclear weapons carriers near the borders of the Russian Federation do not mean preparations for a nuclear strike, Klimov believes. According to him, states usually warn each other in advance about large-scale exercises in order to reduce the risk of misinterpretation, although previous notification mechanisms such as the Vienna Document are now working worse. At the same time, Moscow separates the temporary participation of aircraft in exercises and the permanent deployment of nuclear weapons. The Russian authorities are already calling the second scenario, which also concerns Helsinki, a direct threat.

The Russian Foreign Ministry warned of "additional political and military-technical response measures." Back in March, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, described the possible consequences.

— By deploying nuclear weapons on its territory, Finland is beginning to pose a threat to us. If Finland threatens us, Russia will take appropriate measures," he said.

Photo: Global Look Press/MOD Russia/via Globallookpress.com

Moscow is already responding to NATO's increased nuclear activity with its own exercises of non-strategic forces. In May-June 2024, the Iskander-M complexes, aviation and the Navy participated in them. In addition, Russian tactical nuclear weapons are deployed in Belarus. Therefore, the further expansion of NATO's nuclear infrastructure to the east may lead not only to the strengthening of the alliance's bases, but also to the strengthening of Russian forces designed to deter and destroy such facilities.