Channel without communication: The United States and Iran may lose intermediaries
The circle of intermediaries between the United States and Iran is narrowing. Pakistan, Oman and Qatar are still able to bring the parties back to negotiations, but Saudi Arabia may significantly reduce its efforts, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. In addition to the ongoing attacks on infrastructure, the confrontation with the Houthis, who are traditionally supported by Tehran, has flared up again. The truce between the United States and Iran did not last even three weeks. Since July 8, the sides have been attacking each other almost daily, and Washington has resumed the blockade of Iranian ports. Whether the parties will be able to return to negotiations in the near future is in the Izvestia article.
Who can reconcile Washington and Tehran now?
For a week now, the United States and Iran have been attacking each other almost daily, making the work of intermediaries much more difficult. The memorandum of understanding signed in June did not last even three weeks out of the planned 60 days, and the settlement stalled amid renewed strikes. It is hardly worth expecting new reputable mediators who could bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table, and the circle of existing ones may shrink very quickly.
Pakistan, Qatar and Oman played a key role in the June talks, as they were the first to begin work on returning the parties to dialogue. According to CNN, Islamabad and Doha are still trying to resume negotiations behind closed doors. It is no coincidence that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi visited Qatar on July 15. According to ISNA, the official purpose of the visit is the funeral of former Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani. A few days ago, the head of Iranian diplomacy held talks with his Omani counterpart Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi.
It is Doha and Muscat, orientalist Murad Sadigzade told Izvestia, that remain traditional mediators not only in the US–Iran case, but also in many other regional and global tracks.
But Saudi Arabia, which participated in the preparation of the memorandum back in June, may fall out of the pool of likely intermediaries. Both sides are not particularly "honoring" the kingdom's efforts. The Iranian attacks on the kingdom's oil infrastructure as an act of retaliation against the United States prove every time that Washington is unable to ensure the security of its partner in the region. Recently, in July, the Saudis also accused Iran of attacking their tanker Wadiyan in the Strait of Hormuz. All this overlaps with other long-standing disagreements with Washington. For example, Riyadh is unhappy with the tacit American support of the United Arab Emirates in Sudan, the expert emphasizes. The KSA and the UAE support the opposing sides in the civil war, fighting for regional influence. Thus, Riyadh now has a difficult relationship with the Trump administration, Sadigzade drew attention.
In addition, the conflict with the Tehran-backed Houthis is reigniting. On July 12, Saudi aircraft struck the rebel-controlled Sanaa airport; on the same day, the Houthis announced the end of the truce that had been in effect since 2022, and on July 13, they responded with a drone missile attack on the Abha International Airport in the southwest of the kingdom. Yahya Saria, a military representative of the Houthis, warned airlines against flying in Saudi Arabia's airspace.
Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, recalls that the KSA, despite its interest in resolving the issue, is traditionally hostile to Tehran. In fact, the countries remain the main geopolitical rivals in the Persian Gulf. And the activation of the pro-Iranian Ansar Allah in the Saudi direction hardly contributes to constructive contacts.
However, there is not much to expect from the remaining intermediaries, the expert noted. Traditionally, the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf are wary of the Islamic Republic and one should not expect "indulgences" from them. At the same time, the expert admits, these countries are interested in resolving the Iranian issue and exert some pressure on both Tehran and Washington. Pakistan is the closest intermediary to Iran. At least Islamabad acted as the main diplomatic mediator in agreeing on the memorandum, and unlike the Arabian monarchies, the republic does not feel the costs of the conflict in the form of endless attacks.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
However, there are no substantive statements from there, at least regarding future rounds of negotiations. Except that on July 10, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif said that in a conversation with Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian he confirmed Islamabad's readiness to continue playing the role of mediator.
So whether they can achieve a resumption of the settlement depends entirely on the willingness of the United States and Iran: in June, they were still interested in a truce and accepted the mediation efforts of Islamabad and Doha. Now, according to Sazhin, none of the parties is sure about the need to resume the negotiation process.
A new round of escalation between the United States and Iran
The United States and Iran have each given themselves carte blanche to escalate. Trump announced the end of the truce, and Tehran later said the memorandum was no longer valid.
While the mediators are looking for diplomatic channels, the pressure is mounting. On July 14, Washington resumed the naval blockade of Iranian ports — for this, the United States deployed more than 20 ships and hundreds of military aircraft off the coast of Iran, CENTCOM reported.
On July 15, American forces launched a new wave of strikes. During the seven—hour series of raids, several dozen military installations in the Strait of Hormuz were hit - missile and drone bases, ships of the Iranian Navy and coastal defense systems. The Iranian media reported explosions in Bumpour, Chabahar, Ahvaz, Siriq and Hengam Island.
Iran is still hitting American facilities in the Persian Gulf countries. According to the IRGC, one of the most important targets was the logistics center of the US Armed Forces near the port of Mina Abdullah in Kuwait and the base of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Strikes on the Al-Azraq base in Jordan were also reported. In Kuwait and Bahrain, air raid sirens go off every now and then.
Obviously, the parties are not ready to negotiate yet. Donald Trump promises that the strikes will continue "until he says enough is enough" and has threatened to bomb Iran's bridges and power plants if Tehran does not return to the negotiating table. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on the same day that "no country should expect Iran to continue fulfilling the conditions" of the Islamabad Memorandum.
Nevertheless, neither Washington nor Tehran needs a major war right now. With the mediation of Doha and Muscat, the parties are likely to return to a settlement, experts agree. Daily attacks are becoming more expensive for the parties, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is virtually paralyzed, and oil prices have gone up again. As the US congressional elections approach, Trump has nothing to present to American voters to prove a convincing victory, and Iran is unable to get Washington to lift sanctions and unfreeze billions of dollars of the country's assets.
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