The glass is half full or empty: the beer market in Russia is stagnating
The Russian beer market entered a stagnation phase after a record 2024, when the production of beer and beer drinks reached 908 million decaliters, and retail sales totaled 833.1 million decaliters. Already in 2025, a serious imbalance appeared: sales fell by 16% while production decreased by only 1%, which led to record overstocking and an excess of supply over demand by almost 200 million decaliters, according to the National Rating Agency (NRA; data available from Izvestia). Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
What will happen to beer prices in stores
In 2024, Russian brewing companies increased their production of intoxicating beverages due to reduced imports from European countries, but already in 2025, an imbalance in the structure of production and consumption became visible. In 2025, beer consumption per adult population fell to 60 liters per year, 17% below the level of 2024, and remains at about this historical minimum. In general, by the end of this year, the NRA forecasts "beer inflation" at the level of 12%.
According to the NRA, based on statistics from Rosalokoltakcontrol, this year the gap between shipments and consumption will remain at 170 million decaliters— three times higher than in 2020-2023.
By the summer of 2026, the interregional price range is 2.3 times: a liter of beer costs an average of 160 rubles in the Volgograd region and 373 rubles in Chukotka. In regions with large breweries, the price is 16-25% lower than the national average.
Businessstat points out that with an increase in stocks, the buyer is more likely to see hidden changes and local promotions than massive discounts. Manufacturers will prefer to freeze or adjust output to maintain margins. The average buyer will feel the stabilization of prices against the background of general inflation.
Alexander Stavtsev, Vice President of the Association of Retail Market Experts, notes that 60 liters of beer per person is actually not so little. In Soviet times, the figures, according to his information, were 25 liters of beer and 15 liters of wine (compared to 60 liters of beer and seven liters of wine today).
How will the selection of beer on the shelves change
Stores will optimize their shelves through assortment rotation: weak positions will give way to local and craft brands that show steady demand from a young and solvent audience. The share of Kraft and regional brands will grow, but it will remain niche. Large brands will retain their positions through marketing, experts predict.
Anna Mokina, head of the Investment Projects Department at Businessstat, warns that in an effort to maintain margins, manufacturers can imperceptibly change formulations (more unsalted raw materials, cheap hops). The label remains the same, but the taste becomes watery. That is, it is worth paying attention to the composition and density of the initial wort.
Why summer beer is not the same anymore
According to Businessstat estimates, a decrease in consumption and an increase in the share of non-alcoholic/low-alcohol beer will smooth out the traditional seasonality, but will not completely eliminate it.
Summer spikes in demand will remain noticeable, but if earlier the summer peak exceeded the winter minimum by 1.5–2 times, now the gap will decrease to 1.2–1.3 times. The reasons are the year—round consumption of non-alcoholic beer, the growing share of consumption in dachas in different seasons, and the development of all-season HoReCa formats.
For summer festivals and beer gardens, this means increased competition: we will have to work more actively with craft lines, gastronomic sets and exclusive varieties.
Less beer in a bottle: what the customer will notice
Businessstat predicts that the desire to optimize production will affect containers: cans will prevail over bottles in the mass segment. Volume compression (0.45 liters instead of 0.5 liters) and promotional formats are possible, in which a liter actually becomes more expensive.
At the same time, the assortment structure is also changing. According to Idi‑Marketing, the bulk of sales still fall on classic beer, but this segment is under pressure due to declining demand and rising prices. In the first five months of 2026, the production of beer with a strength of more than three degrees decreased by 3.6% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 347.85 million decaliters. At the same time, the production of non—alcoholic beer increased by 19% to 13.26 million decaliters, and its share in the total volume increased from 3.0% to 3.7% per year.
According to Businessstat estimates, non-alcoholic and low-alcohol products are becoming a key driver of growth. In 2020-2024, beer sales increased by 10%, with a significant part of the increase coming from this segment, which is growing faster than the market as a whole — up to 15-20% per year.
What they say in the industry
Vyacheslav Mamontov, Executive Director of the Association of Beer, Malt and Beverage Producers, noted that the market as a whole is experiencing a slowdown in dynamics due to the continued increase in the excise burden and the continuing uncertainty of fiscal policy.
There is a redistribution of consumption towards strong drinks, which can negatively affect the general indicators of alcohol consumption by the population, he believes. At the same time, the Russian brewing industry remains a mature and technologically advanced sector of the economy that adapts to market changes without compromising product quality and customer interests, the head of the association notes.
According to forecasts of the Association of Beer, Malt and Beverage Producers, in the near future, high competition between producers will restrain the pace of price growth and stimulate the development of targeted promotional offers.
Izvestia sent inquiries to the press services of major beer producers, but they did not comment on the situation with falling demand for beer and beer drinks.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
