Naval glitch: exchange of blows between the US and Iran risks becoming protracted

The United States and Iran have exchanged blows three times in a week. Washington is attacking Tehran's military facilities, which in response is hitting American infrastructure in the Middle East. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that disruptions to the truce will be systemic. The main stumbling block in the negotiations remains the regime of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the sides also disagree on the issues of sanctions, frozen Iranian assets, the nuclear program, and Tehran's support for its allied forces in the Middle East. However, despite the escalation, Oman, Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt continue to try to bring the parties back to dialogue.

The United States is attacking Iran

On the night of July 12, the Central Command of the US Armed Forces reported on the completion of the third series of strikes on Iranian territory in a week. According to the Pentagon, about 140 targets were hit during the latest wave of attacks, including missile and drone launch sites, ammunition depots, naval facilities, as well as communications and coastal surveillance centers. In total, over the three stages of the air operation, the US military announced the destruction of more than 300 strategic enemy targets.

Tehran responded with missile strikes and drone attacks. For example, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has systematically attacked American military infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Jordan.

The reason for the third wave of strikes was an attack on a Cypriot-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington blamed the IRGC for the attack. Iran, meanwhile, declared the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" and demanded that ships follow routes agreed with Tehran.

Take on the Strait: will the conflict between the United States and Iran reach a new level

Washington and Tehran once again exchanged blows, calling into question the recent truce - how the conflict in the Middle East will develop.

The American side claims that the movement has not completely stopped, and denied reports that Iran controls the strait. The British Navy's Maritime Trade Coordination Center (UKMTO) reports that ships can pass through it via an alternative route off the coast of Oman. At the same time, monitoring resources are already reporting that ship traffic has decreased to a minimum.

The current American campaign began on July 7 after the attacks on three commercial ships. The United States, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have blamed Iran for them, but Tehran has not officially acknowledged responsibility for this. The first American strikes targeted Iranian air defense systems, coastal radars, anti-ship complexes, and naval forces. This was followed by retaliatory attacks by Iran and a second American wave of attacks on about 90 targets.

Such disruptions of the truce may become systemic, says international political scientist Elena Suponina. According to her assessment, even after returning to the negotiating table, the parties will periodically violate the agreements, since key contradictions have not been resolved.

The incidents in the Strait of Hormuz could have remained a local episode, but the situation became more complicated due to unresolved contradictions in the negotiations, Suponina believes. According to her assessment, Tehran believes that the initiative has passed to Iran, including due to the ability to influence shipping through Hormuz. US President Donald Trump, in turn, is not ready to accept this, so Washington continues to combine proposals for negotiations with military pressure.

Contacts between the parties have remained

Despite the new round of escalation and the exchange of blows, contacts between the parties remain. Iran and Oman have already reached an agreement to discuss in detail the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz at two levels at once — political and technical. Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt are making active diplomatic efforts in parallel.

It is significant that on July 8, US President Donald Trump publicly declared the interim agreement with Iran "ended." However, the American leader did not forbid his representatives to continue the negotiation process, explicitly stating that diplomats have every right to maintain working contacts with the opposite side.

The main subject of dispute now is the Strait of Hormuz, while the nuclear program has temporarily receded into the background, said Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University and the Financial University.

Washington demands that Iran publicly commit to stop attacks on commercial vessels, open routes through Hormuz, and waive tolls for passage. Without this, the American side sees no conditions for returning to the previous negotiation process. Tehran insists that it must participate in determining the order of movement through the strait, part of which passes in Iranian territorial waters.

Muscat offers a compromise option: to leave the southern route through the Omani waters free, and to coordinate the movement through the northern part with Iran. At the same time, the passage should not be subject to additional fees. Washington has not officially confirmed its agreement with such a scheme.

Negotiating stress: Will the US and Iran reach a deal on time

Quick agreements without guarantees will only marginally delay a major war.

A whole range of other problems remains unresolved. These include the fate of the frozen Iranian assets, the lifting of sanctions pressure and the cessation of Tehran's support for military and political forces loyal to it in the region. The last round of full—scale negotiations was held in Switzerland on June 22. At that time, the mediators optimistically announced the progress achieved and the successful agreement of a certain "roadmap". Following this, on July 1, technical consultations took place in Doha, focusing mainly on the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. However, despite the meetings, there were no signs of progress in the negotiations.

Although tensions are rising, a full-scale war should not be expected in the near future, Farhad Ibragimov is sure. According to the expert, the United States is now taking a tactical pause.: They are testing Iran's military capabilities, assessing the nature of its potential response, and simultaneously regrouping their own forces in the region.

However, the status quo cannot be maintained indefinitely. If Tehran categorically disagrees with the American terms on the Strait of Hormuz and a number of other issues, the exchange of blows risks becoming prolonged, and in the fall it may be followed by a full-fledged resumption of the war.

There is an ambivalent situation around Iran. Washington and Tehran retain the opportunity to return to negotiations, but for now they prefer to seek concessions by force. For both sides, the current escalation is a way to strengthen their positions before a new round of dialogue. Therefore, the prospects for diplomacy will largely depend on the outcome of the current stage of confrontation between the United States and Iran.