Brake risk: The United States has reached an impasse in the settlement of Ukraine
Washington has nothing to offer Moscow to solve the Ukrainian crisis, experts say. This explains Trump's delay in making the announced call to Putin. At the NATO summit, Kiev's negotiating position could not be moved from the dead end. And the White House's attention has shifted back to Iran. It is possible that Witkoff and Kushner will not reach Moscow in the near future. The US Embassy confirmed to Izvestia that there was no information about the visit. However, in Switzerland, where the last trilateral settlement meeting was held, they are still ready to provide a platform, the country's Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Whether it is worth waiting for a new round of negotiations before the US congressional elections is in the Izvestia article.
What happened to the US position on the settlement
Donald Trump was going to call Vladimir Putin in the middle of the week, right after the NATO summit. Several days of delay put the head of the White House in a very delicate position.
However, Moscow is always open to high-level contacts: politicians can call promptly and without preparation, if necessary, the Kremlin explained. It seems that the White House needs a pause, rather, as Washington has nothing to offer Moscow on the Ukrainian issue yet.
First, the United States has actually abandoned previous agreements. Secretary of State Marco Rubio admitted that there were only "proposals" in Alaska, and therefore the "spirit of Anchorage" does not seem to be relevant. Thus, the old negotiating base has ceased to exist, and the new one has not yet appeared.
Secondly, the recent negotiations between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky at the NATO summit did not move the process off the ground. The head of the White House probably expected a breakthrough and a change in Kiev's position — it was no coincidence that before the meeting in Ankara, Trump spoke with Zelensky and Putin, confirming to the Russian president his readiness for a political and diplomatic settlement. However, this did not happen, so now he essentially has nothing to tell the Russian president, American journalist Malek Dudakov explained to Izvestia. "Representatives of Ukraine are confident that they have made a turning point in the war by using drones to strike deep into Russia, and now they are even more unwilling to compromise," the political scientist said.
In Ankara, Trump preemptively stated that the United States is exerting pressure on both sides, although so far the facts show the opposite. He promised to grant Kiev a license to manufacture interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems. However, the whole thing will take years, so the situation on the battlefield in favor of Ukraine is unlikely to change now. The statements of the American president are more like a PR stunt, which Trump has practiced throughout his political career.
However, at least the public change in American rhetoric can be attributed to the fact that Trump wants to "negotiate concessions from Moscow" in future negotiations, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club. The US president has no fundamentally new proposals, the expert emphasizes. "It takes some time to prepare the American position, so the call is delayed," he suggested.
Finally, Trump now seems to be preoccupied with the Iranian issue and the latest crisis over the Strait of Hormuz. The new exchange of blows violated the established truce in the Middle East, and on July 10, the US president confirmed that the cease-fire was over.
The main American negotiators, represented by the president's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, will probably have to return to a settlement in the Middle East. Earlier, after a conversation between Putin and Trump on Independence Day, the Kremlin announced their imminent arrival in Moscow. The American embassy in Moscow told Izvestia that they "have nothing to announce yet regarding a future visit." At the same time, the diplomats recalled Donald Trump's statement at the NATO summit: "It is impossible to set strict deadlines. Because... You see, there are too many things going on. But I think the deal will happen."
When to expect a new round of negotiations
Today, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the participation of the United States are on pause. Nevertheless, Moscow remains open to a diplomatic settlement of the conflict, and contacts with Washington remain, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed. However, due to Kiev's absolute unwillingness to go to the peace process, the special operation continues.
Moscow pays special attention to the situation around the Zaporizhia NPP. In fact, Kiev's lack of desire to negotiate is indicated by at least increased attacks on both the station itself and residential facilities near it. Russia regards this as terrorism and constantly draws the attention of the IAEA to this. Since mid-March, the NPP has survived more than 400 attacks by drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev said after consultations with the head of the agency, Rafael Grossi. In recent months, six people have been killed and 43 injured in attacks on the Energy Depot.
While the United States is busy with the conflict with Iran, several countries are offering their mediation services in resolving the Ukrainian issue. In particular, Switzerland is ready to become a platform for a new round of negotiations between all parties, its Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
— Switzerland supports any diplomatic initiative aimed at achieving a just and lasting peace for Ukraine. The Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs maintains contact with all parties and constantly offers its good offices to help find a path to peace," the ministry explained.
The last round of negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States took place in Geneva on February 17-18. The other day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the country also maintains contact between all parties to the conflict and is ready to host their delegations.
Participants of the trilateral meeting of the delegations of Russia, the United States and Ukraine in Geneva
However, not everyone is so peaceful. For example, Europe continues to pursue an anti-Russian policy. Brussels is actively working on the 21st package of sanctions against Russia, while simultaneously discussing new programs of military support for Ukraine. The West is only imitating its readiness for negotiations, but at the same time it is openly trying to dictate ultimatums to Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
Thus, the main question now is when the White House will be ready to return to active diplomacy. Many experts believe that it is not worth waiting for progress before the midterm elections to the US Congress. For Donald Trump, the Ukrainian issue remains sensitive from a domestic political point of view. Democrats will surely present any attempts to reach an agreement with Moscow to American voters as concessions to Russia, which risks discrediting Republicans before the elections, Malek Dudakov believes.
On the other hand, it will be important for the White House to show the electorate two so-called victories on the world stage: success in the war with Iran and progress in resolving the Ukrainian conflict, Andrei Kortunov notes. Trump is likely to try to initiate a new round of negotiations on the second crisis in the first half of autumn. However, it is definitely not worth waiting for a breakthrough from him, because neither side is ready to make significant compromises yet.
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