Financial inflow: businesses invested 4 trillion in state-guaranteed projects
Businesses continue to increase investments in government-supported projects, despite the cooling economy. The authorities allow large companies to fix certain tax conditions for years to come and recover part of the costs incurred. Due to this, by the end of 2025, the volume of investments under agreements on the protection and promotion of investments (NWPC) increased by a third to 3.7 trillion rubles, the Ministry of Energy told Izvestia. In conditions of uncertainty and frequently changing market conditions, this mechanism remains perhaps the only understandable and safe way to launch large-scale projects. Why government support pushes businesses to make new investments, but does not save investments in the economy from a general decline — in the Izvestia article.
How do investment protection agreements work?
The authorities expect that by the end of the decade, businesses will increase investments by at least 1.6 times compared to the level of 2020. It was planned to achieve this by improving the business climate. However, after strong growth last year, the pace began to slow down. For example, by the end of 2025, the indicator decreased by 2.3%. The trend will continue in 2026: in the spring macro forecast, the Ministry of Energy prescribed a decrease in investments by 1.5%.
Business investments support the country's economy. And against the background of their slowdown, GDP is naturally declining — in the first quarter, the decline was 0.3%, according to the Ministry of Economic Development.
However, even against the background of cooling, the business continues to invest in development, albeit with the support of the authorities. In particular, large businesses have become more active in increasing the financing of projects with government guarantees. By the end of last year, the volume of investments under the agreements on the protection and promotion of investments amounted to about 3.7 trillion rubles. This was reported to Izvestia by the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development. By the end of 2024, they had accumulated 2.8 trillion rubles, that is, for the whole of 2025, organizations had attracted about 900 billion rubles.
The NWPC (agreement on the protection and promotion of investments) is a mechanism under which an investor enters into an agreement with the state and receives guarantees of stable conditions for the project. The authorities fix tax, land and urban planning rules, and can also compensate for part of the cost of building the necessary infrastructure, said Maxim Kolesnikov, First Deputy Minister of Economy. This reduces business risks and makes long-term investments more predictable.
The mechanism creates a "safety net" for long-term investments, said Mikhail Gordienko, Professor of the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Such contracts increase the predictability of conditions, help to more accurately assess the effectiveness of the project and reduce the risks of payback.
Such agreements are used in various industries, primarily in the field of mining, manufacturing, agriculture, transport and timber processing, the press service of the Ministry of Energy reported. Izvestia studied the open data and found out that among the largest projects are the development of the Baim ore zone (Chukotka), the Murmansk transport hub, the Udokan copper project (Zabaikalsky Krai) and the Amur Gas Chemical Complex (Amur Region).
Investment activity within the framework of the mechanism remains. In 2026, the portfolio includes six new initiatives related to the extraction and processing of raw materials, energy and agriculture, the deputy chairman of VEB told Izvestia.Russian Federation Murat Kerefov.
In conditions of limited budgetary resources, it is important for the state not only to provide direct support, but also to create conditions for attracting private capital, Mikhail Gordienko noted. This approach allows you to reduce the amount of budget expenditures.
Why does a business choose projects with government guarantees
The demand for projects with capital investment protection has increased against the background of a reduction in the key interest rate, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. Until the summer of 2025, it was at a record level of 21%, after which the Bank of Russia began to reduce it — now it stands at 14.25%. And even though it's still a lot, loans have become cheaper, so it's easier for businesses to launch new projects, and some companies have returned to their previous investment plans.
In addition, many large projects prepared earlier moved to the active stage of implementation in 2025, said Eduard Rumyantsev, partner of the audit and consulting group Unicon. By the way, the mechanism of investment protection projects has become more understandable for businesses: the practice of its application has accumulated, and investors have gained more confidence in how agreements with the state work.
At the same time, lending remains expensive, and tax regulations are changing — in these conditions, predictability is especially important for businesses. State guarantees allow us to fix in advance the key conditions for the implementation of the project, Mikhail Gordienko emphasized. That is why the demand for the mechanism is growing: it does not provide a direct guarantee of profit, but it helps companies to more accurately assess the future effectiveness of investments.
What companies should invest in in 2026
Projects with state guarantees, in fact, remain the most understandable way for large companies to invest money, Mikhail Gordienko said. Against the background of a slowing economy, this is especially important: by the end of 2025, GDP growth decreased from 4.3% to 1.5%. In 2026, the authorities' expectations are even more modest — 0.4%. At the same time, in general, the business approach to investments has become more selective — projects with a short payback period and dependence on loans are now simply postponed for the future. Against this background, it is important that major strategic initiatives continue to receive funding.
Businesses now have several ways to invest their savings. Large organizations invest in the development of production, modernization of enterprises, new technologies and the purchase of companies. For large projects, they can use government support mechanisms, including special economic zones (SEZs) and advanced development territories (TOP), where there are tax incentives and the necessary infrastructure.
But investments in projects with capital investment protection for large businesses remain in fact the most attractive support mechanism, analysts say. Their risks are significantly lower due to stable conditions and compensation for part of the costs, namely, the immutability of the rules is the main business requirement.
The authorities continue to develop this support mechanism. According to the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development, the ministry is now proposing a change in approach: not only business, but also regional authorities will be able to initiate a major project. The entity will propose an idea and select investors.
In addition, the launch of social media platforms is being discussed, said the deputy chairman of VEB.Russian Federation Murat Kerefov. They will allow companies to build schools, kindergartens, clinics and other facilities in their regions of operation at their own expense, and then receive compensation for these costs.
Experts believe that in order to further develop the mechanism, it is necessary to simplify the design of projects with such state guarantees, in particular, to shorten the time for reviewing applications, make the requirements more understandable and reduce the number of approvals. In addition, it is especially important to expand access to the tool for medium-scale projects, especially in industry, logistics and technology. At the same time, investments in such a mechanism do not allow reducing the decline in overall investment activity, because they are typical only for giant companies. Therefore, expanding the list of such organizations will generally increase the amount of project financing.
Thus, government support mechanisms make it possible to support investments in the most important projects for the country's development against the background of a cooling economy and a decrease in business activity. As a result, more and more areas of development depend on the authorities' ability to create conditions for investments, reduce business risks and offset some of the costs.
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