Dragging the burden: the EU could not agree on negotiations with Russia
The European Union is not ready to start negotiations with Russia, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia. There is no decision either on the format of the future dialogue or on the candidacy of the EU envoy. At the same time, the NATO summit in Ankara only confirmed the West's bet on further support for Kiev. However, according to experts, supporters of ending the conflict remain within the union. Moscow is ready for contacts, but not in the format of ultimatums. Whether there are chances for a Russian-European dialogue is in the Izvestia article.
How Europe tried to get in touch with Moscow
Despite numerous statements by EU representatives about their readiness for dialogue with Moscow, the matter has not moved from the dead end. The countries of the association could not agree on anything among themselves.
— The European Union is open to dialogue with Russia. As for the format, no specific decision has been made. We are not yet at the stage of launching such negotiations," a European diplomatic source told Izvestia.
However, he is confident that the participation of Europeans in the settlement process in Ukraine is inevitable, regardless of the future format.
At the same time, the July NATO summit in Ankara only reinforced Europe's readiness for a long-term confrontation with Moscow. In the final declaration, the alliance called Russia the main long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security. The allies promised to allocate €70 billion to Ukraine for weapons and military training in 2026, promising not to lower the bar in 2027.
At the same time, the zeal of the Europeans to supply weapons to Kiev is explained quite simply. NATO countries are using the conflict to restart their own military-industrial complex, said Mikhail Kucherov, a political scientist and Europeanist. They are trying to support their economies through militarization, as contractors from different countries are involved in the production of weapons.
In addition, the last attempt by EU representatives to contact representatives of Russia a month ago caused a flurry of criticism from colleagues. Later, the media found out that the head of the office of the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, called the assistant to the President of the Russian Federation, Yuri Ushakov, twice to create a direct line of communication. Moscow confirmed the fact of these short calls, but did not disclose the details. Costa subsequently explained the initiative by saying that it was time for the European Union to communicate its position to the Kremlin on its own, rather than relying solely on Washington.
By that time, Eurotroika's contacts with the Russian Foreign Ministry had also become known. The ambassadors of France, Germany and the United Kingdom themselves requested a meeting with the Russian side. On June 11, in a conversation with Deputy Minister Mikhail Galuzin, the diplomats brought the theses of a joint statement by their leaders, which they adopted on June 7 immediately after their conversation with Vladimir Zelensky.
In the document, the European Commission supported a direct dialogue between Moscow and Kiev with the active participation of the United States and European countries, but called an immediate ceasefire a key condition for the meetings. Other demands include the start of negotiations on the current front line, security guarantees for Ukraine, its right to join any alliances and the preservation of frozen Russian assets until the end of the fighting and the payment of all reparations.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the Russian side outlined to the ambassadors its approaches to a settlement "based on eliminating the root causes" of the conflict, and called the policies of London, Paris and Berlin destructive. According to Moscow, the European construction actually encourages Kiev to continue fighting with the support of the Western "coalition of the willing." Later, the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, said that the ambassadors had not brought anything new, and Galuzin called their approaches ultimatum and unacceptable to Russia.
Why can't the EU choose a negotiator
The situation within the European Union regarding dialogue with Moscow remains ambiguous, says Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University. She emphasizes that there are different groups of influence in the association: there are hardliners, there are more compromise policies, and there are those who oppose further militarization of the conflict due to high costs and uncertain outcome.
Formally, the EU does not remove the issue of negotiations from the agenda, the expert noted. However, the key problem for Brussels remains not the fact of the dialogue, but the conditions under which it can begin, and what European countries will be able to get in the end. The European Union has seriously invested in the Ukrainian crisis and is now not ready to simply abandon its previous line until the hardliners have exhausted their agenda.
Differences are also evident at the country level. In a possible dialogue, Germany and France, apparently, rely on the Eurotroika format, while Italy and a number of other states, according to leaked information, oppose the leadership of several major capitals. Spain and Ireland supported Costa's attempt to open the channel, while the Baltics and the Nordic countries considered such contacts premature.
The content of the future conversation is no less controversial. The EU does not even understand yet what kind of proposal its representative should come with. Among the demands discussed were a cease—fire, guarantees of security to Kiev, compensation for damage, as well as an end to sabotage, cyber attacks and interference in the European elections, which Moscow allegedly engages in.
The discussion of the candidacy of the EU representative was also unsuccessful. Among the contenders were Costa himself, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. However, at the end of May, Kaya Callas suggested that the general mandate should be determined first, and only then specific names should be discussed.
Political analyst Evgeny Mikhailov believes that there is practically no chance of a full-fledged dialogue with Europe right now: the West is stubbornly trying to talk to Moscow from a position of strength. Russia does not refuse contacts, but it does not accept ultimatums. However, it is unlikely to be possible to reach an agreement with the current EU leaders. The situation will change only after the renewal of the political elites in Europe or a radical change at the front, the expert concluded.
As a result, the EU's negotiations with Russia are still an internal topic for Europeans. Brussels declares the need to participate in a future settlement, but does not provide specifics. While she is gone, the European war party, which relies on Kiev's support, will "talk" to Moscow.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
