The economist estimated the risk of the Moscow Exchange index falling below 2,000 points

The Moscow Exchange index may fall below 2,000 points with a combination of several negative factors, but this scenario is not yet a baseline. The market primarily reacts to expectations regarding the key interest rate, the cost of money and the prospects for corporate profits. Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia about this on July 10.

"Indeed, a decrease in the Moscow Exchange index below 2,000 points is possible, but it is not the main scenario. From current levels, this is about minus 8%, and such a move is likely with a strong signal from the Central Bank combined with a worsening external background. In other words, to implement this scenario, not one, but several negative prerequisites are needed at the same time," the expert noted.

According to him, additional pressure on the Russian market may be exerted by maintaining a high key interest rate, rising federal bond yields, lower oil prices, a strengthening ruble, a revision of dividend expectations and increased geopolitical risks. At the same time, the softer rhetoric of the regulator, the attractiveness of individual dividend companies and the activity of investors who use the decline in quotations for purchases can support the market.

The economist stressed that the fall in the stock index is not a direct sign of an economic crisis. According to him, the market thus reflects the changing expectations of participants — investors take into account the impact of high cost of lending on business investment activity, financial results of companies and economic growth rates.

"The decline in the index is primarily a signal of cooling expectations, rather than a direct sign of a crisis. The market puts high—interest rate pressure on lending, investment activity and company profits, that is, it reacts to the expected slowdown, rather than fixing the recession that has already occurred," Astafyev explained.

According to the expert, the current situation does not require panic: it is more about revaluing the value of stocks in terms of expensive money. A full-fledged stress scenario is possible only in the event of a sharp deterioration in liquidity and a mass exit of investors from the market, but there are no such signs now.

The high rate also changes the structure of demand in the financial market. Investors are more likely to choose deposits and bonds because they offer more predictable returns. In such conditions, stocks have to compete with risk-free instruments, which reduces the attractiveness of riskier investments.

"In conditions of high interest rates, demand naturally shifts in favor of deposits and bonds. Stocks are becoming less attractive because they have to compete with high risk—free returns on deposits and debt instruments," the specialist noted.

The base scenario, according to Astafyev, remains the movement of the Moscow Exchange index in the range of 2100-2150 points. Going below 2,000 points is possible in the event of a rate hike or harsh signals from the Central Bank, but this will require additional strengthening of negative factors. Currently, the market remains in the zone of moderately negative expectations, rather than a systemic crisis.

According to the Moscow Exchange data, on June 22, one of the main indicators of the Russian stock market, the RTS index, fell below 1,000 points for the first time since November 2025. As of 15:55 Moscow time, the index value was 1005.17 points, reflecting a drop of 3.08% during the day. During the trading session, a local minimum was recorded at around 993.48 points at 17:29 Moscow time. In total, the indicator has lost 11.55% since the beginning of this month.