Not everything is so sweet: Russians began to save on cakes and pastries
Russians have become less likely to buy desserts with a short shelf life, Izvestia found out. Against the background of the desire to save money, consumers are increasingly abandoning impulsive purchases of such cakes, while at the same time preferring sweets with a reduced sugar content and lower calorie content. According to market participants, one of the ways to adapt to new consumer preferences may be the use of sugar substitutes in the production of cakes. However, experts warn that this can significantly affect the cost and final price of products for customers. About how Russians' preferences are changing in the market of fresh desserts, see the Izvestia article.
Why are sales of desserts with a short shelf life falling?
According to the results of January-March 2026 (the latest available data), retail sales of fresh cakes and desserts with a short shelf life amounted to 88.9 thousand tons, which is 3% less than a year earlier, the analytical company NTech calculated for Izvestia. At the same time, in monetary terms, the market, on the contrary, grew by 7.5% to 75.1 billion rubles.
The decline in sales was the first after a relatively stable year in 2025. At that time, the volume of sales of fresh cakes remained virtually unchanged, while the segment of cakes with a short shelf life showed double—digit growth rates: by 18% in physical terms — up to 116 thousand tons and by 29% in monetary terms - up to 92 billion rubles, according to NTech data.
Consumers have become more rational about spending and saving on impulsive purchases, says Mikhail Lachugin, founder of the Product Media channel and an independent consultant to retail chain suppliers. According to him, fresh desserts are among the most expensive categories of confectionery products due to their short shelf life, high risk of write-offs and complex logistics. As a result, the cost and final price on the shelf of such sweets can vary tenfold, the expert said. The cost of a particular dessert can be 30 rubles, and on the shelf it will cost 300-400, he gave an example.
At the same time, the demand for budget sweets, such as cookies and waffles, is growing primarily due to the conjuncture in the chocolate market, Konstantin Vlasov, project manager of the Consumer Sector and Agroindustrial Complex practice at Strategy Partners, drew attention. According to Rosstat, in January-March, the average retail price of 1 kg of chocolate reached 1,598 rubles, which is 13% more than in the same period a year earlier.
However, changes in consumer behavior are not only related to the desire to save money. Chairman of the Association of Omnichannel Retail Companies (ACORT) Stanislav Bogdanov notes that demand within the category is being redistributed. In particular, consumers are more likely to choose desserts with a low sugar content, natural ingredients, fresh berries and fruits, etc., Konstantin Vlasov said. Customers are actively trying new products, including those with functional ingredients, the X5 representative agrees. In the Pyaterochka retail chain (part of X5), according to the results of the first six months of 2026, the demand for fresh desserts increased by 9% year-on-year, its representative said.
According to Mikhail Lachugin, it is possible to reduce the sugar content in desserts through the use of sweeteners. This approach is already used by manufacturers of beverages, snacks and dairy desserts. However, the expert noted, this significantly increases the cost of production. And the price of such products, according to him, cannot be low, because they remain a difficult category in terms of sales due to their short shelf life and relatively low turnover. According to Rosstat, in January-March, the production of cakes and pastries of short-term storage decreased by 1.7% compared to the same period a year earlier.
What are the prospects for the dessert market?
The largest producers of fresh cakes and desserts by the end of 2025, according to NTech, were Mirel (part of Khlebprom) with a share of 23%, Fili-Baker - 10%, Fantel confectionery factory and U Palycha — both with 5%. Izvestia sent inquiries to these companies.
The drop in demand for such sweets is due to a shortage of refrigerators in new grocery stores, according to an interlocutor of Izvestia, who is close to a large confectionery manufacturer. According to him, against the background of a reduction in retail space, food retailers are reducing the size and quantity of such equipment in the halls, as well as optimizing the assortment, abandoning perishable confectionery products in favor of, for example, dairy products and semi-finished products.
However, the top manager of one of the major retail chains does not agree with this assessment. In his opinion, the decrease in demand is primarily due to a change in consumer preferences, and "there is definitely no fault in fewer cold storage rooms."
Frozen desserts may become one of the promising areas of development of the category, Mikhail Lachugin believes. According to him, such products have a longer shelf life, reduce sales losses and can potentially cost less than fresh produce. So far, this segment remains poorly developed, the expert noted. Many retailers don't pay enough attention to its layout and promotion. However, as the range of stores is optimized, manufacturers' interest in the production of frozen desserts may grow.
In the second half of the year, experts expect the category to grow due to increased demand for healthy lifestyle desserts with low sugar content, sweeteners and low calorie content. According to Stanislav Bogdanov, over the past year, the demand for such products in large retail chains has increased by 15-30%, and in individual chains — up to 40%. In addition, by analogy with other segments of the grocery market, we can expect an increase in interest in desserts with unusual flavors, Konstantin Vlasov believes.
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