What are the NATO countries going to the Ankara summit with? What you need to know

The NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-9 will take place against the backdrop of a growing crisis within the alliance, where disagreements between the United States and Europe are simultaneously escalating, disputes about the future of Ukraine are intensifying and the risk of internal division is growing. At the same time, the struggle for Washington's attention is at the center of the agenda. What problems have accumulated in the organization can be found in the Izvestia article.

Heated battles

• The 36th NATO Summit will be held on July 7-8 in Ankara against the backdrop of the deepest crisis in the alliance's recent history: conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, and relations between the United States and Europe have noticeably deteriorated. At the 2025 summit in The Hague, the countries had already agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, but this did not ease the tension.

• Disagreements have intensified over the past year: American President Donald Trump has again raised the issue of the annexation of Greenland, the United States and its allies have taken military action without full coordination, and the reduction of the American military presence in Europe has also been discussed. The disputes over Ukraine have further escalated. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the war with Iran intensified conflicts within the bloc, and some European countries (in particular, Spain) publicly criticized the actions of the United States, which provoked a sharp reaction from Washington.

• At the same time, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte highlighted two key problems of the alliance: the excessive burden on the military industry due to Ukraine and the lack of trained personnel. At the same time, fears are growing within Europe: Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda talks about the risk of NATO splitting into several blocs in the absence of agreement on defense spending.

Sleight of hand, and no cheating: how NATO countries calculate defense spending

The target of 5% of GDP may lead to a political split in the alliance.

• The discussion around nuclear policy is further escalating. Although Finland officially opposes the proliferation of nuclear weapons, on July 1 it lifted the ban on their deployment on its territory, and Lithuania is considering similar steps. This provokes a sharp reaction in Russia, as the risk of escalation increases dramatically. At the same time, the position in the EU itself is not uniform: a number of European countries, such as Austria and Ireland, are categorically opposed to any nuclear weapons.

The struggle for the attention of the United States

• The NATO summit in Turkey is taking place against the background of the struggle of various political groups for influence on US foreign policy. European elites and Ukrainian supporters are trying to bring US President Donald Trump's attention back to the conflict in Ukraine and gain increased support for Kiev. Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is scheduled closer to the end of the summit on July 8, after which the American president will hold a final press conference and leave Turkey. At the same time, the Ukrainian leader will not be allowed to address the heads of NATO countries this time. Western media explain this by their unwillingness to "upset Trump."

• At the same time, despite the EU's attempts to shift the focus to Ukraine, the White House administration itself is paying more and more attention to the Middle East. Trump's contacts with the leaders of Turkey and Syria are planned during the summit. These negotiations are taking place against the backdrop of escalating regional competition, where different forces are trying to take advantage of the tension between the United States and Israel to strengthen their influence (we wrote here about why relations between Washington and Tel Aviv deteriorated). At the same time, the dispute over the strategic course continues in Washington: part of the Trump team advocates active participation in Middle Eastern issues, others advocate a focus on Ukraine, and the rest advocate reducing global commitments.

• The summit will also discuss the reduction of the US military presence in Europe and the transition to a model in which European countries will pay more for American weapons. In Europe, they expect to use internal disagreements in the United States to influence the decisions of the summit and keep Washington on the European agenda.

The United States wants to reduce the volume of military forces for NATO operations in Europe. What does this mean?

An attempt to increase influence

• Turkey sees the NATO Summit as a chance to strengthen its own influence within the alliance. Ankara, which has been a member of the alliance since 1952, positions itself as one of the main mediators in international crises, including the conflict in Ukraine and tensions around Iran. In particular, the country's role in the international arena became more noticeable after participating in the "grain deal" (we discussed this initiative in detail here), despite its results. Turkey's military spending already exceeds $30 billion and has grown by 7.2%, and the army is considered the second largest in NATO after the United States.

• Turkey promotes the idea of strengthening the alliance's cooperation with the countries of the Middle East through the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, which involves Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Amid the uncertainty surrounding the future role of the United States in European security, Turkey is strengthening its role within NATO, turning from a peripheral participant into one of the alliance's key strongholds on the borders of the Middle East and the Black Sea, which additionally changes the balance of power within the organization.

• The NATO summit in Ankara will take place amid serious disagreements between the United States and Europe, disputes over defense spending, the smoldering conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty around Ukraine. The main question of the meeting is whether the alliance will be able to maintain unity and agree on the distribution of responsibilities while Washington shifts attention between different regions. The meeting will be a test of whether NATO will be able to avoid a split and adapt to the new conditions of global security.

When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• the Americanist Malek Dudakov;
• political scientist Alexei Chesnakov.