Mourning demarche: Iran is preparing for a resumption of conflict with the United States

A funeral procession has begun in Tehran after several days of saying goodbye to Ali Khamenei in Mosalla: hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets, and the body of the supreme leader has already been taken away from the capital. After the funeral, Washington and Tehran are expected to return to negotiations on de-escalation, the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. However, many Iranians do not believe that it is realistic to come to an agreement with the United States. People are preparing for a possible resumption of hostilities, despite the dialogue with Washington. Why the people of Iran consider the mourning pause to be only a temporary respite is described in the Izvestia report from Tehran.

How is the farewell to Ali Khamenei going?

The Iranian capital was closed again in the morning due to the funeral of Ali Khamenei. After several days of farewell in Mosalla, the ceremony went out of the walls of the prayer complex onto the streets of the capital. There were many more people than in previous days: hundreds of thousands of people gathered near the square, waiting for the coffins with the bodies of Khamenei and his relatives. According to estimates by the Iranian side, more than a million took to the streets.

All this happens under the scorching sun at a temperature of about + 37 degrees. A dense crowd of hundreds of thousands of people in black mourning clothes filled the concrete streets of the capital. Many came from the regions of Iran: in local hotels, pilgrims who arrived with almost no belongings occupied entire halls on the ground floors and slept right on the floor, just to say goodbye to Ali Khamenei. After the march, his body was taken away from Tehran. Further ceremonies will continue in Qom, then in Iraqi Najaf and Karbala, and burial is planned in Mashhad — at the mausoleum of Imam Reza, one of the main Shiite holy sites.

In Tehran, apart from the Mosalla Mosque, there is no single central place for saying goodbye. Funeral sites are scattered throughout the city: they have become local mosques, squares, parks and memorial complexes. We were taken to the Imamzade Saleh Mosque, one of the main Shiite mausoleums in northern Tehran. It is located on Tajrish Square, next to the bazaar of the same name, and is considered the burial place of Saleh, the son of the seventh Shiite Imam Musa al-Kazim and brother of Imam Reza. For believers, this is a place of pilgrimage associated with one of the key lines of the Shiite tradition.

There is also a memorial site where Iranian military, political figures and scientists associated with the nuclear program are buried or immortalized. Among them are Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Fereydoun Abbasi, Seyed Razi Mousavi and Qassem Soleimani. People came up to the slabs, touched them with the palm of their hand and whispered something, closing their eyes.

The Iranians are ready to take revenge on the Americans

On one of the plates was the face of Ali Shamkhani, the former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran. At some point, a group of people appeared nearby. One of the women began to cry bitterly, almost falling on the stove. I approached the men who accompanied her; one of them spoke good English.

— Shamkhani was my uncle. He was almost like a father to me. When the blows started, I was the closest to the place where he was. I heard the explosions and immediately realized what had happened, because I knew he was there. I realized that he became a shahid that day," nephew Mohammad Sadegh told us.

According to him, the pain did not get any weaker over time.

— Every day is like the first. Every morning when I wake up, it feels like it just happened. It doesn't get any easier," he said.

Mohammad Sadegh said that before the Islamic Revolution, Shamkhani participated in the struggle against the Shah's regime, and during the Iran-Iraq war, he commanded the IRGC forces in Khuzestan province. It was in the south of Iran, including in Khuzestan, that some of the heaviest and bloodiest battles of that war took place: Iraqi troops tried to break through to the oil regions and used chemical weapons against Iranian forces.

After the war, Shamkhani served as Minister of Defense, then as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran. Shortly before his death, Ali Khamenei appointed him to the Defense Council.

Mohammad said that his uncle died on February 28 at about 9:40 a.m. According to him, at that moment he had a meeting at the offices of the supreme leader, and the American strikes hit buildings associated with Khamenei's office.:

"I think we're all ready to take revenge on the Americans,— he said. — We all want revenge — for the supreme leader and for the loved ones we lost in this war.

Many Iranians do not believe in a sustainable truce with the United States and believe that the fighting may resume. The unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the "nuclear deal" and the subsequent imposition of strict restrictions convinced the people of Iran of Washington's incompetence. Not to mention that the long-term sanctions imposed by the United States have seriously undermined the standard of living of ordinary citizens and worsened health problems.

US-Iran talks

After the funeral ceremonies, Tehran will be able to return to negotiations with the United States. Now the contacts have actually been put on pause: Washington has agreed to a week-long break while Ali Khamenei's funeral is taking place in Iran. At the same time, US President Donald Trump claims that the Iranian side "really wants to come to an agreement."

Prior to this pause, the parties discussed first of all the conditions of the post-war de-escalation, the Iranian nuclear program and security guarantees. Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most pressing issues.: Iran is seeking to expand control over this strategic logistical artery, which is actively opposed by the United States and its European allies.

However, it will not be easy to return to diplomacy. Right during the funeral ceremonies, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz made new threats against the leadership of the Islamic Republic. He stressed that any Iranian leader who tries to resume plans to destroy Israel "will also be stopped." The defense minister added that the Jewish state is ready to defend itself from external threats on its own at any time.

But Iran is already prepared for any outcome. One of the journalists named Hayyal said that among his colleagues and part of the society, contacts with the United States are perceived not as a way to a settlement, but as a temporary respite before a new stage of the conflict. Khayyal also linked the expectation of a new round of war with reports of the US deploying additional forces and ammunition to the Middle East. In his opinion, if Washington really wanted peace, it would not have increased its military presence around Iran.

A diplomatic pause and Washington's willingness to wait a week do not guarantee de-escalation. There are too many fundamental differences between the parties, from the future of Iran's nuclear program and the role of the United States in the Middle East to Israeli threats and demands from Tehran to avenge the dead. Less than three weeks have passed since the signing of the 60-day memorandum, and the participants in the process have just over 40 days left to find a compromise.