Early retirement will allow Vucic to continue his career. And here's why

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has announced that he will resign as head of state and call early elections. At the same time, he intends to remain in politics and maintain his influence. He later clarified that the parliamentary and presidential elections in the country would be held separately. Why Vucic decided to take such a step and what will happen next is in the Izvestia article.

Role reversal

• Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has announced that he will leave office in the near future and call early elections. According to the Serbian Constitution, if the head of state leaves office early, presidential elections must be held within three months.

• At the same time, the politician is not going to end his career: as expected in the Serbian Progressive Party (SPP), he will head the party list in the upcoming parliamentary elections. So far, the dates of leaving office and holding elections have not been announced. The expert community believes that Vucic wants to resign right now because the political situation in the country has escalated to the limit. In case of voluntary withdrawal and early elections, he has a chance to maintain his political influence and take the post of prime minister, which will give him even more powers than the post of head of state.

The lists include: students in Serbia have put forward a new demand to Vucic

Protesters promise radicalization of rallies

• The reason for the protests against Vucic was the incident in the Serbian city of Novi Sad in November 2024, when 16 people died after the collapse of the awning of the railway station. Later, there were suspicions that construction violations and corruption could have been the cause of the disaster. The work was carried out by Chinese companies, and the project itself was considered one of the main ones for the government. The student actions gradually turned into the largest protests in recent years demanding early elections.

Weak opposition

• Prolonged protests have seriously weakened the president's position. However, the main issue remains the ability of disparate opponents of the government to unite and gain a majority in parliament.

• The probability that the opposition forces will be able to consolidate before the elections scheduled for 2027 is low. At the same time, if there is a quick departure of Vucic now, then the chances of such a union become even less. The SPP has already stated that it wants to see Vucic at the head of the list in the parliamentary elections, and then nominate him as a candidate for the post of prime minister. However, the decision will depend on Vucic himself. At the same time, the party has not yet said who may be nominated for the presidential election.

• The opposition Green-Left Front is confident that Vucic's resignation and election statements are needed to distract public attention and create new causes for political disputes. The Movement of Free Citizens believes that preparations for the elections are actually already underway, and their timing remains the main issue.

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It is increasingly difficult for Belgrade to maintain a balance between Euro-Atlantic integration and alliance with Moscow.

• It is more profitable for the ruling party to hold parliamentary elections first. If the SPP retains its majority, it will be easier for it to approach the presidential campaign, especially if the opposition remains divided.

• So far, neither the Serbian Progressive Party nor the Student Movement have submitted candidates for the presidential election. Serbian media have named Vladan Jokic, rector of the University of Belgrade, and Dejan Bodiroga, former basketball player and president of EuroLeague Basketball, among the possible candidates, but none of them has yet confirmed their intention to participate in the elections.

Influence on foreign policy

Belgrade's foreign policy course is likely to remain the same: Serbia aspires to join the European Union, but at the same time wants to maintain partnership relations with Russia and China.

Serbia remains one of the few European countries that have not joined the sanctions against Moscow. Belgrade continues to purchase Russian gas, which provides up to 90% of the country's total gas imports, and the leaders of the two countries maintain regular contacts. However, the European Union will continue to seek closer alignment of Belgrade's foreign policy with the bloc's position and looks forward to further progress in negotiations on the country's accession to the EU.

• The main uncertainty in foreign policy is related to the outcome of future elections. If the Serbian Progressive Party retains its majority, the country's course will not change much. Belgrade will continue to develop relations with the European Union, Russia, China and the United States at the same time. If the government's position weakens and new political forces become stronger, Serbia may accelerate its rapprochement with the European Union. However, in the near future, the country is likely to maintain its current multi-vector foreign policy without drastic changes.

When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• political scientist Viktor Sukhotin.