At the crossroads: new car sales increased by 15% in the first half of the year%
According to the results of the first half of the year, sales of new cars in Russia showed good growth. However, in the second half of the year, according to experts, the situation in the automotive market will not be so rosy. Along with traditional factors like prices and the availability of car loans that influence the behavior of potential car buyers, a new introduction has recently appeared, experts say. Izvestia dealt with the prospects of the Russian car market.
The results of the "equator"
In the first six months, 608,618 new passenger cars were sold in Russia. Such data is provided by the analytical agency Autostat, based on the number of issued EPTS. This result is 14.8% higher than in the same period last year, according to the agency. At the same time, 116,276 new cars were sold in our country in June, which is 29% more than in the first summer month of 2025.
Lada retained its leadership among brands in the first half of the year with a market share of 24.2% — in six months, cars of this brand sold 152,131 units (-2.2% compared to the same period last year). Haval brand took the second place with a result of 84,113 cars sold (+31.6%), Tenet took the third position (63,996 cars). The top five also included Geely brands (36,911 units, +3.7%) and Belgee: 28,811 Russians purchased cars of this Belarusian brand (+61.6%).
Changan was in sixth place in the first half of the year (23,178 units, -22.6%), followed by Toyota (16,632 vehicles, +103.4%, all imported using alternative imports) and Jetour (15,933 units, +1.5%). Jaecoo (13,258 vehicles, +35.2%) and Mazda (11,731 units, +761.3%) complete the top 10.
In the "personal standings" for six months, Lada Gratna retained the title of leader with a margin of almost one and a half times from its closest competitor — 59,958 cars sold. The Tenet T7, which entered the market at the end of last summer, came in second place with a score of 36,490 units. Haval Jolion has the third line (35,473 copies). The top five also included Lada Vesta (27,727 units) and Lada Niva Travel (27,431 vehicles).
The largest sales growth (+38.6%) in the first half of the year was shown by the Jolyon assembled in the Tula region. And the most noticeable decrease (-35.3%) was recorded at Vesta.
Everything is learned by comparison
The significant positive dynamics in the market recorded in the first six months is largely due to the low figures of the beginning of last year, Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat, told Izvestia. According to him, the so-called low base effect has worked.
— Last year, there was a clear division in the market: a frankly disastrous first half of the year and a noticeable increase in sales in the second. Against this background, we are now seeing a noticeable increase. However, in the future, apparently, sales results in comparison with the same periods in 2025 will not be so high. There may even be a slight decrease in the indicators in comparison "month to month," he believes.
The results of June and the first half of the year can be called record-breaking with a very big stretch, says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine. These figures look "beautiful" only in comparison with the not very outstanding figures of last year, but at the same time they fall short of the results of a more or less successful 2024, he notes.
— Now we are going plus or minus at the pace of 2025. But if you look at 2024, when 1.5 million new cars were bought, it becomes clear that in order to achieve these figures, it is necessary to sell 120-130 thousand new cars every month. There were no such results in the current first half of the year, and they are unlikely to be in the second," Maxim Kadakov shared his observations.
According to the results of the first half of the year, Ivan Trandin, the owner of the KM/H group of companies, notes several trends characteristic of the car market. The first of them is related to the fact that Chinese brands have finally ceased to be an "alternative" and have become the basis of the market.
—Of the top 10 brands, six are related to Chinese production in one way or another, and this reflects the real demand of customers, and not just the lack of choice," he told Izvestia.
Ivan Trandin calls the active return of Japanese brands the second obvious trend in the market. The almost 8.6-fold increase in sales of Mazda models and the doubling of Toyota's results in the first six months indicate that some buyers, especially in the middle and upper price segments, remain loyal to Japanese brands and are willing to pay for a reliable and understandable product, he believes.
The main trend of the half—year is to further strengthen the positions of Chinese manufacturers, agrees Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. Haval, Geely, and Jaecoo continue to increase their presence in the Russian market, and the appearance of the new Russian brand Tenet immediately among the leaders shows a high demand for modern crossovers of local production, she notes.
"At the same time, the market is becoming more concentrated: several brands continue to increase their share, and competition for buyers is getting tougher," the expert said.
The first half of 2026 was held in a more stable manner compared to the significant decline in 2025: the market is showing moderate growth, said Alexey Kalitsev, chairman of the AEB Committee of Automakers.
— Currently, we do not see any prerequisites for rapid large—scale growth of the market: fundamental factors — regulatory measures, a high key rate, an increase in the VAT rate and currency fluctuations - continue to be its significant constraints. Under these conditions, we see that the market is moving in a fairly tight range, maintaining steady growth relative to the previous year, but without signs of rapid acceleration in the foreseeable future," he believes.
The AEB predicts that 1.4 million new cars will be sold in Russia by the end of the year.
A new risk factor
Along with the traditional factors influencing the sale of new cars, such as car prices, discounts from dealers and distributors, the size of the key rate and the availability of car loans, another one has recently appeared, experts say. This is the situation in the fuel market. According to Sergey Tselikov, in the near future, the situation with sales of new cars will depend, among other things, on how the situation with fuel availability at gas stations develops.
— So far, the impact of this factor on car sales is not particularly noticeable. However, if the situation at the gas station does not stabilize in the foreseeable future, this may lead to a certain "drawdown" in the automotive market, he believes.
Igor Morzharetto, partner of Autostat, adheres to a more radical point of view. He says that "he cannot imagine a portrait of a customer who, seeing queues at gas stations, will go to a car dealership for a new car."
Against the background of restrictions at gas stations, there was a clear interest of Russians in electric vehicles and hybrids. As previously reported by Izvestia, in the last week of June, Russians bought 1,754 such models, which is almost 50% higher than the "average weekly" level (1,173) of their sales this year.
Now the demand for "green" models in our country significantly exceeds the supply, says Sergey Tselikov. According to him, surveys show that about a third of potential buyers are at least thinking about buying an electric car or hybrid. At the same time, he said, the share of such cars in the sales structure is small: about 1% of electric trains and about 5% of hybrid models.
— It should be understood that these are still not the cheapest cars. Nevertheless, we see that there are practically no more affordable models of electric cars and hybrids left in dealers' warehouses," he told Izvestia.
Their manufacturers also acknowledge certain difficulties in acquiring "green" models. Thus, Evolute said that due to the high demand for individual models, a small queue has formed for the supply of cars.
— Currently, the waiting period for the Evolve i-Space is about seven days, and the Evolve i-Joy is several weeks. To reduce the waiting time, the production program has already been increased, which will allow increasing the volume of supplies to the dealer network in the near future, the press service of the Russian automaker told Izvestia.
High demand combined with limited supply leads to the fact that such electric vehicles and hybrid models are becoming more expensive faster than the market and are becoming one of the most attractive segments in terms of maintaining residual value, Irina Frank notes.
— Buyers are increasingly estimating not only the cost of buying a car, but also the cost of its further operation. Therefore, the demand for modern hybrids and electric vehicles continues to increase. We expect this trend to continue in the second half of the year," she believes.
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