Dolly Cow: real loan rates still reach 30% per annum
Loans in Russia remain extremely expensive — real interest rates on them reach 30% per annum, Izvestia found out. Moreover, since the beginning of the year, they have decreased by less than 1 percentage point, while the key one has been lowered by almost 2 points. Banks continue to put an increase in expenses into the cost of borrowed money due to problematic consumer loan debt - by the beginning of May, its share reached 13% of all such loans from Russians. Why rates will not drop significantly even with a further reduction in the key rate is in the Izvestia article.
At what interest rates are loans being given now
The average level of the full cost of loans at the end of June was 30% per annum, according to data from Financial Services, which was studied by Izvestia. Since the beginning of 2026, real rates have decreased by less than 1 percentage point, while the key rate has been lowered by almost 2 percentage points over the same period, to 14.25%.
The UC includes all expenses that the borrower pays during the loan period. In addition to the rate, this is usually also the cost of insurance and commissions — for servicing, maintaining the borrower's accounts, issuing cards and other additional services.
The average size of a consumer loan in Russia is about 173 thousand rubles, according to data from the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI). If you take this amount at 30% per annum for an average period of two years, the overpayment will amount to almost 60 thousand rubles. As a result, the borrower will pay the bank about a third more than the amount he initially requested.
Even the minimum CPM level for consumer loans now averages 21.2% for the largest banks, according to data from Finuslug. That is, in the best case, the real interest rate on the loan will be about one and a half times higher than the key one.
However, only ideal borrowers with an impeccable history, proven official income and low debt burden can get a loan at the lower limit of the UCS, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Global. Pavel Zholobov, Senior Director of NRA Ratings of Financial Institutions, confirmed that few clients can count on minimum rates now.Such offers are not a mass—market product now.
Banks usually offer them on a point-by-point basis, added Maria Brodovskaya, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of JSC National Savings Bank. According to her, most of the loans are issued at rates that are closer to the middle of the CPM range.
Why are the real rates so high?
Banks cannot always quickly reduce loan rates after the key one, the press service of the Bank of Russia explained. Their level depends primarily on the cost of the funds raised. According to Finuslug, at the beginning of the year, the average rates on short deposits exceeded 15% per annum. They have now decreased by about 2 percentage points, but banks are still required to pay customers high interest rates on deposits already attracted.
At the same time, the consumer loan itself cannot cost as much as the key rate, Vladimir Chernov emphasized. Its price always includes the risks that the bank will incur in the future. The press service of the Central Bank stressed that, for example, it includes the cost of creating reserves for problem and non-performing loans.
Loans issued during the overheating of the market in 2023-2024 continue to mature, said Andrei Krylov, senior analyst at Sovcombank. Against the background of the cooling economy, the share of problematic consumer loans reached 13% by the beginning of May. This means that each new loan actually has to compensate for the banks' real losses on defaulted loans from previous years, which adds several percentage points to the rate.
The cost of risk for banks has indeed increased significantly, said Yuri Belikov, Managing Director of the Expert RA rating agency. According to him, the population remains heavily indebted and continues to generate demand for borrowed funds against the background of high inflation. At the same time, rising prices reduce the solvency of citizens, and these risks are eventually included in the cost of new loans.
Additionally, the rates are influenced by the regulation of the Bank of Russia. In recent years, the Central Bank has significantly tightened restrictions on issuing loans to borrowers who spend more than half of their income on debt servicing, said Andrey Krylov. As a result, in order to issue a single loan, banks now need to raise more funds through deposits than they did back in 2023.
However, it is important to understand that the limits of the Central Bank at one time limited the growth of debts that could be overdue in the future. Without them, the situation would have been even worse, because banks would have had to channel even more funds into reserves for problem loans. These restrictions will not be permanent and may be relaxed in the future.
Competition between banks also affects the cost of loans, said the Deputy Chairman of the Board of DOM Bank.Russian Federation Alexey Kosyakov. When they are more active in fighting for customers and are willing to take on more risks, the rates decrease faster. Currently, competition in the credit market remains weak.
When loans will become cheaper
The neutral level of the key rate, with a steady slowdown in inflation, may reach 7.5–8.5%, Vladimir Chernov believes. However, even in this case, the interest on consumer loans is likely to remain in the double digits.
The gap between the key rate and the real rate, even in this scenario, will be 4-8 points, Pavel Zholobov noted. According to his estimates, the CPM for consumer loans will still remain at the level of 12-17% per annum.
A more noticeable reduction in rates is possible towards the end of the year or as early as 2027, if inflation continues to slow down, the delay will not increase, and the Bank of Russia will be able to reduce the key rate faster, Vladimir Chernov believes. According to Sovcombank, the Central Bank's main indicator may drop to 13.25% by the end of 2026 and to 11% by the end of 2027.
In order to get a lower rate, it is important for the client to really reduce the risks on his loan, Andrey Krylov emphasized. It is desirable that the debt burden does not exceed half of the income. With a stable source of income and a moderate workload, you can count on UCS values close to the lower limit.
The bank's salary clients often receive an additional discount on the rate, the VTB press service reminded. Lower interest rates are also possible on loans secured by property, as they are considered less risky, Sovcombank added.
Significantly lower rates on consumer loans are possible only if monetary policy easing is accompanied by a relaxation of Central Bank regulation.
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