Foggy region: Iran and the United States are far from a final peace treaty

Qatar's Foreign Ministry declares mutual understanding between the United States and Iran, but Izvestia experts believe that the parties are still far from a compromise. Indirect negotiations on the memorandum will resume after July 9, when the funeral of former Supreme leader Ali Khamenei will be completed in Iran. At the same time, Tehran rules out direct dialogue until Washington fulfills the main terms of the deal — first of all, a cease-fire in Lebanon. Although the parties have already agreed to set up a committee to monitor the truce, and Israel has begun a trial withdrawal of troops, analysts are confident that conflict in the region will inevitably flare up again.

Iran-US technical talks in Doha

The United States and Iran have completed a round of proximity talks in Doha and have taken a pause. The diplomats will return to Qatar after July 9, when the funeral of former Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be completed in Iran. According to Al Arabiya, the next meeting in a similar format will be held on July 18 — the participants will continue to discuss the points of the Islamabad Memorandum. If the new stage proves successful, the parties can proceed to negotiations at the highest level. The final peace agreement is planned to be signed by mid-August, while the memorandum is in force.

The Qatari Foreign Ministry has officially stated that Iran and the United States have reached an understanding, but the negotiators themselves refrain from commenting. At the same time, data from foreign media and diplomatic sources indicate serious disagreements. The main stumbling block was Tehran's demand to allow it to collect duties from ships in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the key conflict issue — Iran's nuclear program — was reportedly not even raised during the negotiations.

The parties are making "a good face at a bad game," international political scientist Elena Suponina told Izvestia. According to her, minimal progress is possible in the negotiations in Qatar, but it is too early to talk about success. The participants in the process are only trying to strengthen their positions and "create a fog," agrees HSE expert Georgy Asatryan. He noted that the war in Iran had crippled "Trumpism." Ahead of the American leader are congressional elections and the celebration of the 250th anniversary of U.S. Independence Day, so Washington is trying to avoid a resumption of hostilities, the expert concluded.

According to Asatryan, the initiative in the negotiations has passed to Qatar, although the Pakistani side continues to participate in them. Previously, Doha could not be a full—fledged mediator, since American military bases are located in the Persian Gulf countries, including Qatar itself, which is why Pakistan was the key neutral player at the first stage.

Now Qatar is ideally suited to the role of mediator as one of the most pragmatic states in the region, the expert added. Doha maintains the most constructive relations with Tehran among the Arab monarchies and holds a significant part of Iranian assets in its banks. However, even under such conditions, there is still no real compromise for concluding a peace treaty between Iran and the United States, Asatryan concluded.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed Tehran's tough stance.. He said that Iran will refuse to engage in high-level dialogue until Washington fulfills the terms of the memorandum: it will lift the naval blockade and sanctions on oil exports, return assets and open the Strait of Hormuz on the terms of the Islamic Republic. This is unacceptable for the White House. The United States demands free navigation in the Strait without paying duties and is ready to allocate $6 billion in targeted humanitarian tranches alone. The rest of the points are strongly linked by the American side to the complete dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program.

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The difficulties of establishing peace in the Lebanese direction

Another major barrier remains the requirement to completely cease fire in the region, including Lebanon. And here the main role is played by Israel and Hezbollah, which, in fact, should be influenced by the United States and Iran.

— 60 days are allowed for negotiations. We have expressed support for President Trump's vision that Iran should not have nuclear capabilities, and its missile program should be curtailed, as well as support for proxy forces, but we still have to see how events will develop," Israeli Deputy Foreign Ministry Director General Yuval Fuchs told Izvestia.

However, Washington cannot guarantee that Israel will completely abandon the military confrontation with Hezbollah. The leadership of the Jewish state explicitly stated: the agreement between the United States and Iran will not limit the IDF's actions in Lebanon until the threat from the Shiite movement is completely eliminated.

At the same time, certain steps towards de-escalation have already been taken: on June 26, representatives of Israel and Lebanon signed a separate framework document in Washington. According to him, the IDF has already begun a trial withdrawal of troops from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon. In these positions, the Israeli army should be replaced by regular Lebanese government troops.

However, Hezbollah did not participate in the negotiations and immediately rejected the agreement, calling it "humiliating." According to the document, Israel will return the disputed territories to Lebanon only after the group surrenders its weapons to the regular army. The Hezbollah leadership accused Beirut of legalizing the Israeli occupation, which could lead to the annexation of lands. The Shiite movement also recalled that according to the Lebanese constitution, Israel is officially recognized as a hostile state, therefore any direct transactions with it are illegal.

Experts do not believe in the imminent disarmament of Hezbollah. Tehran cannot stop supporting the movement, as it will be considered a betrayal of the ideas of the Islamic revolution, and Israel is determined to fight to the bitter end, Asatryan stressed. The conflict in Lebanon will continue, Suponina is sure. In her opinion, the IDF will not leave the country until the group is completely disarmed, which now looks impossible.

In addition, Tehran needs external guarantees of a truce. To this end, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced the creation of a trilateral monitoring committee with the participation of Iran, the United States and Lebanon. However, Elena Suponina considers this initiative only a "tick on paper." According to the political scientist, such steps fit into the general tactics of Iran and the United States — to delay negotiations and demonstrate to the world at least the appearance of diplomatic progress.

The current truce remains extremely fragile and could break down at any moment. For the world community, this means a long period of uncertainty and the constant threat of a major war in the Middle East. While Washington and Tehran are playing a diplomatic game to gain time, the unresolved issue of the Strait of Hormuz continues to destabilize global markets and undermine international security.