Leverage: there are fewer and fewer loans available in Russia
Banks actually block access to loans for the majority of Russians: even after lowering the key interest rate, financial institutions continue to tighten loan terms, according to data from the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia. Now, to get a loan, a borrower needs not just a good income, but a "white" salary of 80-100 thousand rubles in large cities, an impeccable credit history, a rating of 700 points and a debt burden of no more than 30% of monthly income, experts say. The failure rate in certain areas reaches 80-85%. Why banks are in no hurry to mitigate the requirements and when loans will really become more accessible is in the Izvestia article.
What has changed in the requirements of banks
Despite the reduction of the key interest rate to 14.25%, banks continue to tighten their lending policies. The bank lending Conditions Rigidity Index (UBC) at the beginning of May was 28 bps for businesses and 18 bps for households, according to the Central Bank.
The Bank Lending Rigidity Index (UBC) is calculated by the Central Bank based on a quarterly survey of the largest banks that make up more than 85% of the country's loan portfolio. The index shows the difference between the share of banks that have tightened conditions and the share of those who have softened them. A positive value indicates that it is becoming more difficult to obtain borrowed funds.
The index rose sharply following the key one. As of January 1, 2025, when the rate was at its peak, the UBC for long—term loans to businesses was 32 bps, and for loans to the public - 33 bps. This means that it became much more difficult to get a loan then. But the current values also indicate that banks are tightening their requirements and reducing the "key" does not change this.
There is a very specific change in the rules faced by ordinary borrowers behind the dry figures of the index. For example, to obtain an unsecured loan for an average amount in a large city, an official income of at least 80-100 thousand rubles is now required. Although six months ago, many banks were ready to consider clients with earnings of 60-80 thousand rubles, said Maria Brodovskaya, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of JSC National Savings Bank.
For large loans, the requirements have become even stricter. Priority is now given exclusively to confirmed official income. In addition, from July 1, a lowering coefficient will be applied when assessing "gray" salaries: banks will be able to take into account only 90% of the declared income, and no higher than the average salary in the region. This will reduce the available credit limit, explained Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of the VMT Consult agency.
At the same time, banks have increased the requirements of scoring models. Although passing scores are not officially disclosed, the minimum level of creditworthiness has increased significantly. Today, banks are much more likely to reject applications from customers with a personal credit rating in the range of 500-600 points, said Vasily Kutyin, Ingo Bank's Director of Analytics.
Another trend has been the reduction of the maximum terms of unsecured loans. Previously, loans for seven years were common practice, but now many banks are limited to 5-6 years, and for certain categories of borrowers — even shorter terms. At the same time, the average size of approved loans is decreasing: instead of the requested amount, customers are increasingly being offered a more modest limit, Maria Brodovskaya added.
At the same time, the failure rate remains high. According to Ekaterina Kosareva, banks do not issue loans in about seven out of ten cases. Potential borrowers often apply to five banks at once and receive approval from only one. Such a situation is unprecedented for the Russian credit market in many ways, said economist Andrey Barkhota.
In addition to income and credit history, banks began to more carefully check the stability of employment, the duration of work at the current location, sources of income and the availability of dependents. The approach to self-employed and individual entrepreneurs has become more cautious. As a result, the reduction in the key interest rate has so far had little effect on the policy of banks, since the main guideline remains the quality of the loan portfolio, Maria Brodovskaya summarized.
Why are banks tightening their policies
By itself, a reduction in the key rate does not automatically mean an easing of credit conditions. Banks' decisions are influenced not only by the actions of the Central Bank, but also by the regulator's restrictions on granting loans to indebted customers, the quality of the portfolio, the need for capital and inflationary expectations, Vasily Kutyin explained.
The problem of delay accumulation usually manifests itself with a delay, said Yuri Belikov, Managing Director of the Validation department of the Expert RA rating agency. That is why banks' policy tightening often occurs after a period of high interest rates.
The deterioration of borrowers' financial situation also creates additional pressure. The slow growth of household incomes, the reduction in business profits and the increase in overdue debts force banks to act more cautiously. Under these conditions, even a decrease in the cost of borrowing does not compensate for the increase in credit risks, said Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory at the Presidential Academy. According to him, it is easier for banks to issue fewer high-quality loans than to subsequently work with problem debt and form reserves for it.
How will the policy of banks affect borrowers
The main consequence of the tightening was a reduction in the maximum allowable debt burden. Previously, banks could approve loans with monthly payments of about half of their income, but now the burden is considered to be no higher than 30%, said financial adviser and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin.
Additionally, borrowers are increasingly being offered insurance to cover loan repayments in case they lose the ability to service the debt. With a loan of 3 million rubles, the cost of such a policy in some cases can reach 70-80 thousand rubles, the expert said.
Maintaining strict requirements poses risks not only for borrowers, but also for the economy. Restricting business access to financing reduces investment activity and slows down economic growth, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global, warned. This results in a reduction in consumer demand among the population and an increased propensity to save, Vasily Kutyin added.
The most difficult situation remains for borrowers with informal incomes, the self-employed, sole proprietors and people with unstable employment. It is for these categories that access to bank financing is becoming virtually closed today.
Additional requirements for borrowers reduce the effect of risk mitigation, explained the Head of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova Svetlana Frumina. Because of this, the reduction in the rate has almost no effect on the availability of loans.
Banks will begin to gradually ease the requirements only after they see a steady improvement in the financial situation of borrowers and a reduction in overdue debts, Vladimir Eremkin believes. It is most likely that this will happen no earlier than 2027. At the same time, the process will be gradual: first, conditions will improve for the most reliable large companies, and then for other categories of clients, says Valeria Popova, senior analyst at the investment company Rikom—Trust.
The Central Bank is more optimistic about the prospects. In the II–III quarters of 2026, bank lending conditions will soften under the influence of monetary policy, the regulator's press service told Izvestia.
As long as high uncertainty and increased credit risks remain, banks will continue to adhere to a cautious policy, experts say. A noticeable easing of requirements will become possible only after inflation approaches 4.5–5%, and the key rate drops below 10%, Natalia Milchakova said.
Currently, borrowers with an official high income, a good credit history and a low debt burden can mainly expect to receive a loan. For the rest, access to bank money remains significantly limited.
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